PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
00CuriousObserver said:
One should examine the projected IOC dates (not just the commissioning dates) of various PLA platforms. The following is extremely rough and not meant to be accurate—merely to illustrate the point. The items in quotes are rumoured platforms

PLAN PlatformsRough Estimation for Initial Operational Capability
003 Fujian2028+
"004 CV"2033+
"005 CVN"2035+
076 Sichuan2028/2029+
075 #42026+
"075 #5"2028+
Batch IV 052Ds2028+
Batch II 055s2028+
"Next gen 055 successor"2030+
"Next gen 052D successor"2030+
Batch I 09IIIB2027+
09VLate 2020s to early 2030s
PLAAF PlatformsRough Estimation for Initial Operational Capability
J-362033-2035+
6th gen CCA2030+
Y-30 (and associated variants)2032/2033+
KJ-30002028-2030+
Z-212028-2030+
700th J-202029+
50th J-352028+

Again, this is not meant to be accurate. We can also make a projection on US and Japanese forces. By choosing a date, a degree of capabilities on both sides is implied, with what meets the “时间节点“ / "critical time" and what doesn't.

As an aside, note that PLA's growth should be viewed in relative terms and might have diminishing returns. The first aircraft carrier will make a bigger impact than the fifth one, all else being equal, for example.
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Z-21 will reach IOC before 2028, barring some major setback. I would say the same for KJ-3000.

My hypothesis has always been 2030 as a general timeframe the CMC is considering, but something will go wrong and it actually happesn in 2029 because big things happen in years ending with 9 in China.
 
O

oseaidjubzac

New Member
Registered Member
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Taiwan’s volunteer military shrinks amid growing Chinese aggression​

The content of the article is not new, but it's from Fox. If one day Trump announces that because Taiwan can't increase its military scale, they don't need too many weapons, and therefore he can raise the prices so that Taiwan has to pay more money, I wouldn't be surprised.
 
A

antiterror13

Brigadier
AndrewS said:
In the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, you still have to assume US intervention and plan for this.

And also, there is still a non-zero chance that China can lose.

Remember that the consequences of losing (whether it is China or the USA) would be catastrophic.
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There is no such thing as zero chance! ... I think right now, less than 50% chance China would lose
 
Iron Man

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
coolgod said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1896108238049013971

Would
love to participate in the liberation of Taiwan.
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I refuse to believe these 304s are actually part of the Taiwanese military ROFLMAO

AndrewS said:
An invasion of Taiwan and the US being kicked out of the Western Pacific would likely be the same event.
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Only if the US responds militarily and loses to China. If they do nothing the US can have a pretense of deterrence for maybe another few decades. Certainly Japan, SK, Philippines, Australia, and NZ would prefer the US to remain militarily present regardless of Taiwan's status.
 
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