So long as there is a real chance of a nuclear exchange in an AR scenario, there will be plenty of room for negotiation around the domestic configuration of peaceful reunification.
Really, there’s a question about what the bare minimum of that sort of agreement might look like. I’d think the cornerstone would have to be constitutional integration, (although,
but aside from that, what could be on the table?
Infrastructure and wealth transfers, while a little gauche given Taiwan’s high GDP per capita, would presumably be acceptable.
A separate currency, electoral system, legal system, law enforcement, flag, passport, trade relations, and international participation were permitted for Hong Kong, and can be taken as given.
Hong Kong also kept its coast guard, so the same can be assumed for Taiwan.
Military is where things get more complex. A nominally independent/delegated military may still be workable, but the shift in mission would be such that it might not make much sense. It would also be a point for potential future conflict. The upshot is, it would keep the people in charge of the military employed post-reunification, sweetening the deal for them.
Would the PLA be willing to eschew a garrison on the island? Even for Hong Kong, there’s a garrison. Some PLA presence, even if confined to specific locations, seems like a bottom line.
There’s an outstanding question of, to what extent would separatism be permitted? Nothing from legislators or the government, obviously. But a full prohibition, a la Hong Kong under the NSL, is possibly able to be avoided. This obviously leaves potential social problems to fester, but that’s a problem for the longer term. Unlike HK, even if the entire island is brought to a halt in protest, it doesn’t have ramifications for the mainland.
The relationship with the USA is the touchiest point. Continued supply of weapons to TW, if aimed at the mainland, is just asking for trouble. Similarly, continued presence of USAID (or whatever its next incarnation is) is a recipe for disaster. But maintaining Taiwan’s relationship with the US in some form would be desirable for peaceful reunification.
If you want to get really creative, we can talk about changes to the mainland system. Country-wide gay marriage, for example, would be an easy bone to throw to the liberals. I’m sure there are other options too.
This may all seem academic right now, but as the military imbalance increases, these sorts of discussions may become increasingly relevant. Even if a military conflict would be a forgone conclusion, there are real incentives on both sides to make concessions to avoid the incalculable costs of a hot war.
