Irrelevant. China just need a strong and powerful PLA.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
I don't think the Chinese military would even need to preemptively attack the US military. The US military would have to fire the first shots in a war with China. Prior to actual conflict, the military buildup in the Western Pacific would ensure that China has eyes and ears everywhere you look, including satellites, UAVs, USVs, UUVs, and of the Chinese merchant marine. It wouldn't be like during the Cold War where the Soviets had great difficulties tracking American CSGs. If the US is in the Western Pacific or SCS, China will know where they are all the time. If the US is going to move on China, it will have to begin by making the Chinese military as blind and deaf as possible by shooting down satellites and UAVs and of course sinking every USV and UUV it finds in the area. It will also have to start murdering Chinese fishermen because it will not be able to tell if that fishing boat sitting on the horizon able to see its CSG is civilian or merchant marine. And so they will all have to die. That would be the sure sign the US (and likely Japan) has committed to the fight and is going in with all its gathered CSGs. In which case China has all the casus belli it needs to immediately counterattack US forces according to whatever plan it has already laid out. And if the US is serious about implementing its Hellscape plan in the event of a Taiwanese invasion by China, it's basically yet another means of declaration that the US will fight China before it even actually joins the fight with the bulk of its forces.
There are some signs that the US establishment is beginning to recognise the Taiwan theatre as a fait accompli. The discussion is starting to shift from military intervention to economic warfare, in a similar setup to Ukraine. Let TW bleed them, but make the major US focus be on shutting down trade and shipping in the longer term.
That would also enable them to keep their positions in Japan, the Philippines, and Korea by keeping them out of a direct engagement.
Once the US feels confident it can manage that post-conflict sanctions/blockade setup, it may even escalate the situation to force it.
The question is, how can China mitigate the closure of shipping lanes?
That would also enable them to keep their positions in Japan, the Philippines, and Korea by keeping them out of a direct engagement.
Once the US feels confident it can manage that post-conflict sanctions/blockade setup, it may even escalate the situation to force it.
The question is, how can China mitigate the closure of shipping lanes?
Depends on the Maritime Militia ，the CCG and Shadow Fleet.
Blockading another country's shipping could easily be viewed as a declaration of war, unlike "softer" measures like sanctions and property confiscations. The US would likely not resort to this unless there were an actual war.
How long could Japan and RoK last in the face of a blockade?
The problem is that the other side may or may not be capable of accurately recognizing and evaluating the strength and power of the PLA, especially in a rational fashion relative to their own military capabilities.
It's kind of like breaking up with an especially determined, yet delusional girl who thinks you're in love with her and that the two of you are destined to be. You can convince a judge to issue a TRO, but that's not going to stop her from texting you.
The reality is recent speeches and panels in Munich have made it abundantly clear that the West is in a state of psychosis. We can try to pretend otherwise, but that's not going to get anyone anywhere or otherwise prevent said delusions from colliding with reality in rather kinetic and bloody ways . . .
Maybe having stronger ties w BRI countries, sco and other friendlies, then help them build up their military and trade/economy w CN, so the trade routes wont just be to cut off CN, but would also be cutting off others like Saudi, Iran, Chile, Mexico, indonesia, russia etc...
In international relations, there is no police officers or judges. International organizations have powers because powerful countries gave them the power which the same countries can take the power away.The problem is that the other side may or may not be capable of accurately recognizing and evaluating the strength and power of the PLA, especially in a rational fashion relative to their own military capabilities.
It's kind of like breaking up with an especially determined, yet delusional girl who thinks you're in love with her and that the two of you are destined to be. You can convince a judge to issue a TRO, but that's not going to stop her from texting you.
The reality is recent speeches and panels in Munich have made it abundantly clear that the West is in a state of psychosis. We can try to pretend otherwise, but that's not going to get anyone anywhere or otherwise prevent said delusions from colliding with reality in rather kinetic and bloody ways . . .
Might very much makes right.
How delusional Western leaders are is irrelevant as long as the PLA is strong and powerful enough to protect China and give those who dares to pick a fight with China a very memorable lesson.
The point I'm trying to make is pretty simple: sometimes you catch more bees with honey than vinegar, especially if the bees tend to behave irrationally at times.