Even if the US is not involved, there would still be a conflict, albeit a smaller one. The Chinese would likely take steps to minimize the risk of US involvement.
I'm surprised at how many members here believe that the Chinese would preemptively attack US forces in the Pacific. The greatest barrier to a successful Taiwan campaign is US intervention, and attacking US assets would be a sure-fire way to ensure that.
Even if the US provides support to Taiwan through intelligence and surveillance, I doubt that China would retaliate kinetically out of fear of US intervention.
And let's not get into the hypotheticals of how China could "defeat" the US in the Pacific because that's not a gamble that China's leadership would be willing to take.
As it stands,
the US will absolutely be providing Taiwan with ISR support in the event of a kinetic conflict between Beijing and Taipei . . . at least until the relevant USG personnel on assignment in Taiwan are evacuated and/or the infrastructure they depend on for ongoing operations are too degraded to function due to cyber and/or kinetic warfare.
Not too sure why more people aren't aware or mindful of this, but the US has been collecting intelligence, especially SIGINT, on Mainland China from Taiwan since the 1950s, if not the 1940s. The associated infrastructure has dwindled, at least visibly, since the 1970s due to the normalization of relations between Washington and Beijing, but why would Washington or Taipei let it all go?
US ISR support to Taiwan has been ongoing for decades, and is in all likelihood happening right now as we speak, and is probably 24/7 as it is with a lot of SIGINT and ELINT mission sets. Granted, Uncle Sam doesn't make an effort to publicize it.
What happens if things heat up, and the PLARF demolishes a SCIF occupied by both ROC and US personnel whose presence has been an open secret for decades, but has largely been concealed from public discourse? Will Uncle Sam even make a fuss about it in public?!
The point I'm trying to make is that when it comes to any future kinetic conflict across the Taiwan Strait,
there are going to be grey zones for Beijing and Washington.
PR and diplomacy ain't bringing anything that your military power isn't able to d
If you think that in AR, PLA would attempt amphibious landings with US forces waiting to strike I got a bridge for you.
Russian lesson is a clear one. If you go into war, you go decisively, not by half measures. US either has to credibly demonstrate that it won't intervene or PLA has to account for worse scenario and strike it
As for your comment of China fearing a US intervention. Dude, if China didn't fear and fought US forces in Korea when it was dirt poor and poorly equipped why do you think it fears US now..
This isn't about whether China is afraid of the US or whether the US is afraid of China.
China is where she is politically, militarily and economically today because she has been patient and strategic in cultivating and strengthening the economic, technological and military foundations essential to resolving the Taiwan issue, be it by word or by sword.
While the Chinese are certainly aware of the necessity of war, they're also wise enough to know that it is best to avoid violence if the threat of violence will suffice.
Not to get cliche, but to quote Sun Tzu: 不战而屈人之兵，善之善者也
Your problem is believing US can win a war with China and Chinese leadership is fearful of the US.
The Chinese leadership need not fear the US, but the problem is: the current senior political leadership in the US is not only inexperienced and disorganized, but arguably reckless and myopic at times.
It's one thing if Uncle Sam was a rational actor, but how do you deal and negotiate with someone who is out of their depth, if not out of their mind and perhaps at times deluded after years of drug abuse?
