PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Neurosmith said:

Why do folks think that China has a specific deadline in mind? To set a particular year/date with one's personal interests in mind could tremendously compromsie the prospects of such an operation succeeding.

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China doesn't have a date, but Xi (and importantly, his coalition) has a date. The timeline isn't a military one but a political one.

Armed reunification takes tremendous political will and consolidating power in the CCP can often take years for the paramount leader. Because of how much power Xi has right now, how the transition will go remains to be seen and I think the state of politics for his successor has much more uncertainty than what members here might assume.

Also, I hold the opinion that China is at a time when overseas military influence needs to be expanded, but yet is vastly lagging behind its actual capabilities, and the Taiwan issue is a major contributing factor.

00CuriousObserver said:

China doesn't have a date, but Xi (and importantly, his coalition) has a date. The timeline isn't a military one but a political one.

Armed reunification takes tremendous political will and consolidating power in the CCP can often take years for the paramount leader. Because of how much power Xi has right now, how the transition will go remains to be seen and I think the state of politics for his successor has much more uncertainty than what members here might assume.

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President Xi was given a mandate by the people and the party for a third/fourth term, he knows his mission and he will not let China down.

00CuriousObserver said:

Also, I hold the opinion that China is at a time when overseas military influence needs to be expanded, but yet is vastly lagging behind its actual capabilities, and the Taiwan issue is a major contributing factor.

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Maybe China assesses that WWIII is coming regardless and might as well save the firepower for the right moment.

coolgod said:

President Xi was given a mandate by the people and the party for a third/fourth term, he knows his mission and he will not let China down.

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I don't think China will be ready militarily until at least around 10 years later (well, we can define "ready" here). He needs a fifth term imo, but then this also opens even more questions.

00CuriousObserver said:

I don't think China will be ready militarily until at least around 10 years later (well, we can define "ready" here). He needs a fifth term imo, but then this also opens even more questions.

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What does "ready" even mean? There will always be a bit more time China could wait to be able to kick the US's ass epsilon harder. If you define it as simply a resounding victory in a Taiwan/1IC conflict, well, you compiled all of Patchwork's posts, you should know very well they're more than capable of that already, and my own opinion is the PLA can also be confident of a decisive victory in a broader conflict within the 2IC in a couple years time. Even US copium peddlers admit the US will be at a vulnerable "nadir" of capability in the late 2020s (they're just wrong about where the trend goes after that).

imo China can put up a good fight but their navy will suffer greatly.

I would rather see China flood the coastlines with air, sea, and underwater drones armed with hypersonic missile or something like that. Even swarms of balloons armed with hypersonic. It should be used to protect manned ships by staying in the front lines.

From many U.S news articles, it seems like US is focusing on mass producing cheap or stealthy antiship missiles. if you have swarms after swarms of anti-ship missile coming towards you, soon enough a few missile will pass through your defenses. In that case, a ship will down.

China really needs to beef up on aircrafts procurement. fighter jets are easier to escape in event of conflict.

Let see what the next 7-10 years will bring.

China did say 2035 is the time they will reached advanced military level. By 2050, they will become a true military superpower that can rival U.S at the pacific ocean (all the way to Hawaii).

In terms of global power projection, as soon as 6th gen fighter enter service in good numbers, including in navy. That timeline should coincide with a number of other capability boost, like greatly expanded advanced submarine fleet. I'd say 2031. By 2031 China could win decisively anywhere between Hawaii to east Africa. Today the win limited from Japan to Philippines.

bebops said:

From many U.S news articles, it seems like US is focusing on mass producing cheap or stealthy antiship missiles. if you have swarms after swarms of anti-ship missile coming towards you, soon enough a few missile will pass through your defenses. In that case, a ship will down.

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What are the launch platforms? How many missiles can they carry? Where are their bases?

The question of whether China can take Taiwan was answered years, if not well over a decade ago. There can be no realistic questioning of China’s ability to take Taiwan, with or without direct US military intervention. That’s basically the bare minimum acceptable outcome for Beijing.

The key focus for China over the last decade has been to reduce the costs to China of such a fight, as well as to unlock more favourable additional victory achievements so that it is far better placed for the next major conflict with the U.S., or even potentially damage the US so much that the threat of future wars is eradicated altogether.

I think China is holding back despite ever increasing provocations from the U.S. because it is no longer content with just reclaiming Taiwan, but has set its sights on the much loftier goal of ending the threat of future wars from the U.S. and saving future generations of having to finish what they started. I am sure that wasn’t on Xi’s list when he secured his term extension, but I think the magnitude of American failings in recent years have exposed just how hollow and fragile it has become that what was previously unthinkable is now fully achievable. So China holds back and redoubles its efforts.

Sadly, I fear that a new world war is fast approaching and is basically almost at the point of no return. It is probably telling that while China is actively preparing for it, American think tanks and leaders are still clinging to the deepening delusion that the main fight will be for and around Taiwan.

Neurosmith said:

Agreed on most points, though the example you provided concerns a direct conflict between the US and China which may or may not involve an operation with Taiwan. Neither the Chinese nor Americans want a direct US-China conflict; instead, the US hopes that China will bog itself down - economically and militarily - in a Taiwan operation. This would not only stunt China's economic progress but also give the US the pretext to (1) reinforce its military presence in the Pacific and (2) make $$$ by selling arms to Taiwan.

Hence, I suspect that the US modus operandi is not to spark or provoke a conflict with China directly but rather to push Taiwan to undertake provocations that it hopes would trigger a Chinese response. So, for China, its long-term aspirations would require it to maintain the status quo and not launch a Taiwan operation unless its security concerns are under imminent and significant threat (e.g. a Taiwanese pre-emptive strike, the basing of foreign long-range offensive weaponry, or the development of Taiwanese WMDs).

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There is no conflict without a full scale US invasion.

How can US sell arms to someone under blockade that's massively infiltrated and faces daily bombings that can (conservatively speaking) be up to 20-50x as much we've seen in Palestine?

Also you misunderstand on the point of economics. China doesn't count Taiwan as part of its 39T economy. Even if the whole province became a parking lot, the only impact on Chinese gdp would be the cost of weapons and military wages. Which as we see with other conflicts can both be a "cost" but also a "boost".

If the civil war goes hot again and US doesn't invade, it's game over in days/weeks for KMT. It's just going to be Assad 2.0 or what Russia feared Zelensky would do to the LDPR.

Since the current US leadership seems to want to avoid direct conflict, it means China will just pick up and clean house, soon.

00CuriousObserver said:

China doesn't have a date, but Xi (and importantly, his coalition) has a date. The timeline isn't a military one but a political one

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China has a date. Hard deadline is 2049 which is the centenary of the People's Republic of China. That's a hard deadline where national rejuvenation will be complete. If you read just a tiny deeper, there is no complete rejuvenation without reunification with the Taiwan Province.

Any attempt by the Party to sell the idea that rejuvenation has been achieved without Taiwan would be ridiculed by even the most leftist communists. So, the leadership, the Party, the People, the PLA, everyone has a deadline. 2049

However that's the latest, I actually think that Xi's third (+ possibly more) term mandate is to deal with Taiwan. Either complete reunification or to so significantly improve PRC's operational position wrt Taiwan, that it will more or less look like an inevitability that there will be a reunification in the following years after he steps down.


And while I agree that delaying for the best shot is always a good idea, some times, very rare opportunities come that they shouldn't be missed. Late 2020s, US Military will have big capability gaps against the PLA while also having the "art of the deal" Trump in charge. I think that would be a rare opportunity that Xi could/should push to exploit to make advances on Taiwan