PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

plawolf · Dec 26, 2021

caohailiang said:
Kadena is obviously out of the question. Those on the Kyushu are also too close to mainland.
But airbases such as Hamamatsu, Iwo Jima or Andersson are still relatively safe

Nope, none of those bases are remotely ‘safe’ against Chinese retaliation. Besides, have a look at a map and distances involved to see how unsustainable any air campaign launched from those bases will be, especially when you need significant assets to protect your tankers or there are no missions.

If the Americans are smart (given) and realistic (highly questionable these days), they will know that any air mission launched from those bases will be a reverse Pearl harbour, where it’s a one shot surprise attack deal.

The strike package should not even be planning to return to those bases but rather redirect to other bases far deeper in Japanese territory as those forward bases will no longer exist by the time the strike package gets back after going hot against China.

If they are planning to to launch one crippling blow and then pull back to try to use distance against China, to blunt the Chinese counter atyackthey might have a shot. If they plan to launch a conventional air campaign against China, they will be soundly beaten.

The reverse Pearl harbour only works if they can take out the bulk of the PLA amphibious fleet to make a PLA take-over of Taiwan non-viable or its a total waste of time.

caohailiang said:
i think you are right.
and i think US does not need continuous air superiority, they only need to temporarily open a corridor every now and then so the long range cruise missile salvo can goes in to sink large number of PLAN transport ships. Given current disparity between USAF and PLAAF, that is not impossible.

The US plan will rely on two things, first that they can punch through the PLAAF air cordon, and second that a significant proportion and number of Taiwan’s AShM batteries can survive to the time of the amphibious phase.

The US air assets are meant to open up the skies so those AShM launches are not instantly obliterated as soon as they make ready to fire; and also to provide off board targeting data for them as their own radars would have long since been destroyed.

This is because the US doesn’t have good AShMs and they don’t have the range or airframes to bring enough missiles to the fight to have any chance of punching through the PLAN fleet air defences.

This mission only works as a surprise alpha strike, as they will need to push their tankers as far forward as possible to give their fighters maximum endurance, so the tankers can pull back far enough to have a chance of being defended against J20s, and the fighters will have enough fuel to get back and meet up with them. That is going to be close to impossible if they are already actively engaged against the PLA.

The other critical requirement is that enough of Taiwan’s AShM missiles survive to make the whole thing worth wile. It’s a massive long shot, but it’s their only winnable play, and even then a significant proportion of the US air packages is not coming back.

That is a reality and cost US command must accept for this to work, and that is another massive question mark.

Overbom · Dec 26, 2021

zxy_bc said:
But what he suggested of “PLA wanting a few military bases” on Taiwan does not make much sense either. It defeated the whole purpose of reunification, if ROC is permitted to exist with its own military and not commanded by CMC. I could see turning Taiwan into another SAR with limited policing capabilities as it was the desired solution of PRC leadership during the 80s, but leaving the ROC military untouched option itself is a political dynamite, for both PRC and ROC

Yes I agree with you on the military bases thing.

My post was merely about the idea of having a political settlement. Now what the deal would include that's a vast topic which itself would probably need an entire thread dedicated to it

I am just saying that the consequences of Taiwan "suddenly falling" to China are so gigantic that a more staged, step-by-step process might be a viable alternative for all sides involved

zxy_bc · Dec 26, 2021

plawolf said:
Nope, none of those bases are remotely ‘safe’ against Chinese retaliation. Besides, have a look at a map and distances involved to see how unsustainable any air campaign launched from those bases will be, especially when you need significant assets to protect your tankers or there are no missions.

If the Americans are smart (given) and realistic (highly questionable these days), they will know that any air mission launched from those bases will be a reverse Pearl harbour, where it’s a one shot surprise attack deal.

The strike package should not even be planning to return to those bases but rather redirect to other bases far deeper in Japanese territory as those forward bases will no longer exist by the time the strike package gets back after going hot against China.

If they are planning to to launch one crippling blow and then pull back to try to use distance against China, to blunt the Chinese counter atyackthey might have a shot. If they plan to launch a conventional air campaign against China, they will be soundly beaten.

The reverse Pearl harbour only works if they can take out the bulk of the PLA amphibious fleet to make a PLA take-over of Taiwan non-viable or its a total waste of time.

The US plan will rely on two things, first that they can punch through the PLAAF air cordon, and second that a significant proportion and number of Taiwan’s AShM batteries can survive to the time of the amphibious phase.

The US air assets are meant to open up the skies so those AShM launches are not instantly obliterated as soon as they make ready to fire; and also to provide off board targeting data for them as their own radars would have long since been destroyed.

This is because the US doesn’t have good AShMs and they don’t have the range or airframes to bring enough missiles to the fight to have any chance of punching through the PLAN fleet air defences.

This mission only works as a surprise alpha strike, as they will need to push their tankers as far forward as possible to give their fighters maximum endurance, so the tankers can pull back far enough to have a chance of being defended against J20s, and the fighters will have enough fuel to get back and meet up with them. That is going to be close to impossible if they are already actively engaged against the PLA.

The other critical requirement is that enough of Taiwan’s AShM missiles survive to make the whole thing worth wile. It’s a massive long shot, but it’s their only winnable play, and even then a significant proportion of the US air packages is not coming back.

That is a reality and cost US command must accept for this to work, and that is another massive question mark.

Plus US had to gather 5th Gen fighters in order to punch through J20s and overwhelm J11/J16/J10 series.

If the US do in fact decide to go hot, then some fighters are also needed to fend of possible H6 series, armed with long range cruise missiles, AShMs attacks, as well.

zxy_bc · Dec 26, 2021

Overbom said:
Yes I agree with you on the military bases thing.

My post was merely about the idea of having a political settlement. Now what the deal would include that's a vast topic which itself would probably need an entire thread dedicated to it

I am just saying that the consequences of Taiwan "suddenly falling" to China are so gigantic that a more staged, step-by-step process might be a viable alternative for all sides involved

True, plus if a political settlement is to taken place, it would be most benefit for the PRC to eliminate the ROC military by the bulk first in order to decrease the opposing side’s bargaining chips.

AndrewS · Dec 26, 2021

zxy_bc said:
3 weeks of preparation? May I ask how did you come by this time frame, and what are the factors you’ve considered that would have prolong the preparation phase? And if your estimate are correct then why are the US military even bothering to “express their concern” of not being able to reinforce Taiwan in time. (Because US estimate of its military’s maximum time needed to assemble the first task force and reaching Taiwan is 17 days)

For USAF to challenge air superiority, its bases of choice are severely limited due to the geography. And it would require them to concentrate large number of aircrafts to less than 5 air bases, which is exactly what the US had been avoiding to do.

Call it 1 week to permanently keep the Taiwanese Air Force from flying, plus another 2weeks to prepare the battlespace.
You would be looking at 2-3 weeks anyway to get an invasion force ready.

Suppose the USAF decided to concentrate 12 F-22s and 12 F-35s into a single sortie launched from rear bases in Japan with tankers?
That isn't a lot of fighters to base there.

AndrewS · Dec 26, 2021

zxy_bc said:
This is a view that’s shared by some of the analysts in Pentagon as well, citing that PLA would pause their operation to wait for political settlement. What I don’t understand is what are the basis of such view? To mainland China, Taiwan is sovereign territory of the PRC. Why would they pause in the middle of military operation to let the enemy and traitors to recuperate and gather more strength, instead of continuing liberating the Island. They have the claim and the support of the mainland population. Why would they even consider pause during an extremely time-sensitive military operation that hours of difference could determine the entire outcome?

I don't see any pause in Chinese operations.
If a China-Taiwan conflict starts, there is no reason for China to hold back.

But the political settlement is always on the table for Taiwan to accept, because that will bring an immediate end to the conflict whilst achieving Chinese objectives. Remember that it would look something like Hong Kong with the recent national security law. But that would be acceptable if the alternative was much worse like mass hunger because the Taiwanese economy has been crippled. In the aftermath, if you're not happy, you're free to sell up and leave just like in Hong Kong.

So if Taiwan retains its own military in a postwar settlement, I don't ever see them being used against the Chinese military.
It wouldn't be viable from either political or military perspective.

AndrewS · Dec 26, 2021

zxy_bc said:
True, plus if a political settlement is to taken place, it would be most benefit for the PRC to eliminate the ROC military by the bulk first in order to decrease the opposing side’s bargaining chips.

Eliminating the ROC military in bulk is easier said than done.

China should announce its political goals at the beginning, which would be along the lines of Hong Kong.

Remember that the world has defacto accepted the situation in Hong Kong, and decided it is not worth fighting a war over.

antiterror13 · Dec 26, 2021

Only a small percentage of tiny Taiwan armed forces would fight against PLA, the rest would surrender or hiding somewhere ... in no time

There is no hope and they don't want to fight "winningless" battles/war ... most are hoping the US would die for them fighting PLA .. hahahhhaha just a wet dream

AndrewS · Dec 26, 2021

antiterror13 said:
Only a small percentage of tiny Taiwan armed forces would fight against PLA, the rest would surrender or hiding somewhere ... in no time

There is no hope and they don't want to fight "winningless" battles/war ... most are hoping the US would die for them fighting PLA .. hahahhhaha just a wet dream

That may be the case, but you can't count on that.

Mohsin77 · Dec 26, 2021

caohailiang said:
i am looking at all these discussion on a2g minition cost, but i believe that will be of least concern to the pla strategist.

It's more helpful to think in terms of Cost/Time.

Because China can stretch "Time" to make the "Cost" small (where the limit can theoretically go to zero.)

That's a luxury that only the Attacker has, since he chooses the Time to attack.

Of course, stretching Time has it's own Cost... but that's the strategic calculus.

caohailiang said:
for each additional day that air superiority is needed, there could be few dozen more lost of fighter aircrafts, how about the cost of that?

That completely depends on the effect of the first waves. Case in point:

caohailiang said:
imho, the best strategy is to employ all possible delivery methods and disable tw defense asap without considering too much on munition cost. and get those troops across the strait asap, achieve fait accompli, and that will also be the cheapest strategy.

Speed + Surprise = the success of an attack or maneuver, but that itself determines scope.

So "all possible delivery methods" isn't a thing.

For example, drone swarms are a great way to take out SAMs/IADS. But they may not be optimal in the Taiwan scenario in the 1st wave, because they can't be hidden on approach over water + they are slow. Unless, of course, you mask their signatures for most of their flight (which would then increase cost of stealth + ECM assets.) Alternatively, high-end CMs/HGVs are more suitable in this case, which then also increases cost (but that can be balanced by Time etc. etc.) So there's a lot of variables that have to be balanced when planning an offensive, but there is always scope and constraints. There's probably some software running differential equations in war rooms all over the world these days to optimize options.

Now, coming back to your previous question, the objective would be to establish air dominance and make landfall on Taiwan's shores before US-backed forces have a chance to respond, thereby removing Taiwan as a base of operations from the equation. If this is achieved, at that point, the US will have 2 options. A) Trigger WWIII. B) Give up Taiwan. In both of these outcomes, Taiwan is no longer relevant. On the other hand, if the first waves fail, then attrition becomes a massive cost and will likely trigger a stalemate/ceasefire.

PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

plawolf

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Overbom

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zxy_bc

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zxy_bc

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AndrewS

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AndrewS

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AndrewS

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antiterror13

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AndrewS

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Mohsin77

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