I watched an american analyst before, cant remember his name, but 1 of his theories is that CN may not land on seashores, but instead possibly use the river to Ta1pe1? Hence he recommend gu3r1lla tactics?
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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lcloo
Captain
Fanboy attack scenario by me.
Landing phase of AR, to commence after ROC military has been softened by
1) destruction of detection and tracking capability of ROC via missile attacks and ECM.
2) destruction of airforce of ROC including fighter jets and SAM launchers.
3) destruction of ROC navy.
Red Arrows - beach assaults from the sea, including helicopter landings.
Blue Arrows - Air drops by Y20 and Y9 and seizures of airports, also including assaults by Army Aviation transport and attack helicopters.
Last edited:
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Historically air power had no staying power and poor detection capabilities against ground targets in cover. Planes come, drop bombs and leaves. The amount of time on station is limited, and the ability of planes to self detect targets is also extremely limited.
The only effective way to use air power against enemy in good cover was to have your own boots on the ground finding them, pinning them and then calling in air strikes to destroy them. But even then often air strikes are ineffective against well dug in enemy forces.
But today it’s entirely different. Drones means air surveillance can be persistently overhead, often with immediate strike capability against targets of opportunity. That factor alone fundamentally changes the nature of air superiority on ground operations. Drones are also expendable, meaning you can afford to use them far more aggressively than with manned platforms. Shooting down one drone simply reveals your location for another 10 to hit you immediately.
Chinese advances with small swarm drones means they can also air drop them en mass to go into complex environments like forests to hunt down enemy forces.
For a landing, the beaches will be pre-softened with massive amounts of firepower. MALE UCAVs will be on station as overwatch to kill any survivors that they find; other MALE drones will establish a cordon and either kill any reinforcements themselves or direct manned fighters and cruise missiles to do so; back on the beach, swarms of automated mini drones will be hunting as well, going into trenches and bunkers and blowing up anyone who isn’t holed up in a locked and sealed room. Even then you are not safe as the mini-drones can relay locations of any locked rooms they find to MALE drones to put a missile/LGB into.
That is the revolution in amphibious assault, not the transports getting your boots on the ground.
Just 2 things to add:
1. We now see multiple satellite surveillance constellations with revisit times of <30minutes
2. I see all the SAM systems larger than MANPADs on Taiwan either being destroyed or running out of missiles within a week
This risk is too high, because once the war begins, it will not only be a problem between China and the United States.
I read another retired officer(TomCat团座)'s explanation, and his viewpoint is that DPP/KMT has its own plan.
His explanation of modern Chinese history, especially the revolutionary war and the War of Resistance Against Japan is very good.
This video is a recording of an online live stream, so the playback time is very long. Starting from 26 minutes later, the video will discuss the content of the new century.
He explained in this video the defense policy factors for purchasing M1A2T.
These DPP/KMT politicians have a clear weakness: a lack of awareness of the progress of modern warfare. They may be aware of their own situation, but they underestimated the defensive difficulty brought by the geographical location of the island.
This makes them more inclined towards a decisive battle. And their strategic goal is quite opportunistic: hoping to turn this war into an opportunity to permanently defeat the enemy (somewhat similar to the Ukraine War). They are well aware that the United States will abandon them at any time, so they must strive to prove their value and drag the United States into war. Due to the public's fear of urban warfare(Lessons from 1995-96), it is politically necessary to defeat the enemy on the beach.
This means that they must take the initiative and prove their ability to defeat the PLA in direct confrontation, give the US an easy opportunity to destroy its enemy ,so that the United States and Japan can confidently intervene in the war.
DPP has a strange judgment that future military actions are military adventures similar to the Falklands War to save the regime. Simply put, military action is only taken when the economy encounters problems. It may sound funny, but it is clear that they have been committed to the destruction of China's internal forces and firmly believe in the ultimate collapse of their enemies.
So, as long as they persist for a few months, their enemy's reputation will be ruined due to the prolonged war stalemate, and ultimately collapse completely. Their work will be an auxiliary role behind the United States.
This made them more inclined to purchase expensive planes, tanks, and warships until the outbreak of the Ukrainian War, they have to purchased weapons for urban warfare under pressure from the United States.
In the era when KMT briefly regained power, some policy adjustments were made. They want to improve their position in negotiations through the "hedgehog tactic". And faithfully carry out the American task of delaying and killing the enemy as far as possible.
As DPP regained power and became more aggressive, the defense strategy was adjusted back to its previous state, but details were modified to emphasize relying on its own strength to resist attacks in the long term.
This is largely due to learning from Chen Shui bian's lesson, the United States does not want to be manipulated by chess pieces. But the purpose of DPP has not changed, they need to prove that the enemy is a broken house can collapse with just one kick. Just like Ukraine, Zelensky successfully took advantage of the Russian military's failure and pushed NATO to intervene in the war, seizing the "initiative".
So, why use such dangerous behavior to test the attitude of the United States? You think they are just bait, but the enemy obviously sees this as an opportunity to prove themselves. They are hoping for a major victory as a bargaining chip to win over American intervention.
mechanical infantry and armored assault only work if enemy do not control the air space and have the luxury like video game real time call in fire support from guilded rocket , arty forward fire base , CAS airstrike
to prevent taiwan armored assault , PLA can set up forward fire base in pengu island put long range guilded rocket arty there . combine with ship land attack missile , air support .
that will allow PLA infantry enjoy extractly the same luxury as US infantry/marine in every confict their fight in , any place on taiwan
That is dangerously close to the "arrows on map" meme.
Ultimately the landing/s itself are less important than everything else leading up to it. And even for the landings itself, what is more thought provoking to be considered is what is bypassed and what is actually assaulted.