The DPP is an unserious actor. In a frozen conflict, the priority should have been to build up forces. Instead they're busy enforcing ideological compliance, without the military to back it up.
In the third straits crisis, the balance of power between US and China was similar to between Russia and Ukraine in 2022. The American leadership is more serious than the DPP, but also lacks decisive strength and the ability to build up arms in a coherent manner, probably because of the flip flopping between Republican and Democrat.
Because US didn't act in the 2000s, the nightmare scenario of any country seeking to expand it's territory has come to pass, and then some more. Either US will helplessly look on as it's pet rebels get slaughtered, or it's forced to mount a special military operation in Asia, which will be bombed since day 1 from the sky and sea that Beijing controls.
If you think there was ever any consideration besides force, you're mistaken. The veneer of negotiation was only used to get time to rearm the country, which China has pulled off significantly better than US and infinitely better than DPP.
The ideological compliance of Taiwanese does not matter, China is holding Taiwan to defend its land first and foremost. This is also the DPP's mistake, their effort to create division makes the people and infrastructure of Taiwan useless to Beijing. When Taiwan isn't providing money, talent or goods to the mainland, there are no more counterarguments to why the PLA shouldn't turn the whole island into a giant parking lot.
US has floated 2027 as the time where a counteroffensive will be started. There is a lot of derision against US intel prediction, but since this matter concerns the fate of the new US territories, I believe this is a close to correct estimate.
By 2027, China will be warm with using new emerging industries for war, it will be able to surge a superior number of CBGs, SSNs and 5th gens compared to US forces in the opening weeks of the counteroffensive, it may likely have the only 6th gen in service, among many other more advantages.
The DPP is failing US' attempt to create new territories, because what do you think DPP trained militants will do in the face of the coming counteroffensive? Having observed their behavior, they're very lacking in the will to fight. When a retired militant leader was allowed to visit the Zhuhai Airshow on a civilian visa, the DPP's reaction to seeing even just static weapons on display was to censor the whole thing. This shows a grossly incompetent attitude, a smarter US leader should have purged the DPP.
