PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

C

CannedFish

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votran said:
i dont think PRC china have any big problem with military/economy for the war

in my view their problem are :both grovernment and people still somewhat naive , too peaceful . lack of necessary cruelty/insanity confident toward the reality world

highly likely even if they willing go to a shooting war , they still gonna try to capture taiwan in the most peaceful way possible

leaving so many chance/open for taiwanese/us/allied gang causing so many unnecessary casualties in hope of somehow the world will respect china after that muh so much effort , so much respect for human life even with ....big cost ...lol

no the reality world is very cruel and brutal , deep down people around the globe only remember and respect total lopeside victory doesn't matter how you do it , respect awesome winner with massive +k/d ratio record doesn't matter that include civilian or not

the lack of confident cruelty also the reason why the west and many people outside the west keep their habit of criticism/look down at china (specially freedom human right,uyghur ,tiananmen square,culture revolution, ten milions of death..etc) without any sight of stop even thought so many china grovernment , netizen effort , wall of text , counter argument , fact check ..etc to prove china still good guy

meanwhile american ,westerners the one supposed to be brightest example of respect human right , freedom , good guy go around bragging about lopeside victory , big k/d ratio , laugh like maniac when someone criticism them about cruelty , imperialism , massacre , disregard human life...etc when their own society suffer all sort of living standard problem without any serious sight of social unrest + guns ownership behind every blade of grass > anarchy > civil war > warlord era

why is that ? because that humanity process : people don't care about truth , people only mock,"criticism" you if they know that gonna hurt you make you feel bad , feel shamful , feel ashamed of what you did or feel unjust in case you didn't but wrongful accused
make you spend alot of effort try everything you can : wall of text explain , fact check , denied out of shame...

nobody gonna do that if they know doing it only make you even more happy and feel good

image how things much easier for china if 1.4b of chinese people and CCP just "embrace the dark side" and having that cruelty/insanity confident
GFW no longer need , massive grovernment spending in "social harmony" (bigger than military budget) no longer need >that money go to military allow thousand of stealth fighter , ten aircraft carrier show up in no time
and last any kind of western/US anti-china propagranda hoping to spark some sort of color revolution , regime change become utterly useless

remember "embrace the dark side" growth a spine care only about your k/d ratio allow your people go around bragging vs other , gave zero fuck about any criticism , go around bragging lmao your and entire your race/are worthless at the end of the day your worthless shit die in milions compare to our tiny loss
and yeah bad shit happen alot of people die + what a fucking great potential traitors turkey shot and ? we still stronger , richer , wealthier , way more tech advantage , better living standard than you trash now eat my sanctions

that the true thing make your nation top dog , ruler of the world not benevolent , remember why liubei faction get rekted first among 3 kingdom ? and caocao faction most brutal , most evil last longest out of 3 ?

why do you think american/westerner/japanese even taiwanese love nazi germany so much and look down at stalin soviet ?

because nazi cause alot of dealth out of hate and feel good while doing it , soviet stalin on the other hand....cause dealth to cover up , out of fear outside world will view them as bad guy

turn out ....the outside world developed even more wrongful view of stalin soviet and fan boy nazi germany than ever lmao =))
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IMHO, a government's main focus should always be the welfare of its ppl, all others are secondary. I think you're missing the point, being too caught up in what others say and think about China. The fact the West, and its adjacent spheres are so "Fascistic" is by western design, not a fact of the world. The Western world (The US mostly, the others squandered their chance at resistance) would rather sleep with the Nazis than ever ever go communist or socialist, and all the propaganda money goes to ensure that is the case. That is why they hate on the Soviets yet glorify Japan and the Nazis. It's simply a method of control.
I think this video explains it best and I don't think I could put it in better words.

IMO it's also the same reason (or the cause of the reason) why The West is failing, the method (propaganda) is the one driving the car now. They've let their lies and copium consume them, and in turn their resentment and frustrations consumes them. Rather than reflect and repair their faulty society, they instead blame, belittle and destroy others all for short term relief as they plunder to gild their "cage", thinking it'll save them while it sinks and drowns them. All this bloated military spending while their ppl rot further.

It would be a massive mistake to follow in their footsteps. All society has cracks, don't let anger and resentment control you, self-regulation and self-betterment should be paramount in nation building. You can't bring Taiwan back to the flock, if the flock is all wild wolves and bears. The Kingdom of Qin was called that, but in truth, it was its leaders' steady and measured hands that kept them in check. Qin Shi Huang was a talented ruler but became too "fanatical" for his own good. According to history, Liu Bang wouldn't have revolted if the punishment he got weren't as severe as the prisoners' he failed to transport on time. Liu Bang actually had a good opinion of Qin Shi Huang and apparently praised him for his diligent rulership/leadership, when he saw?(or heard of) him on an inspection tour passing by.
 
Randomuser

Randomuser

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Registered Member
supersnoop said:
HK was occupied by the British for over 200 years.
Yes, some in HK have the mental disease where they think they are British, but 90+% of the population is normal.

Japan occupied Taiwan for 70 years, only the really diseased think they are Japanese (all of them are probably on Reddit)

What do you think the DPP can do that even the peak UK cannot?

All those "Taiwanese Identity" surveys are horsepoop. Same with those Kuma Academy or other nonsense. It's really easy to mark something online and play with airsoft, but in the end it's just living in a fantasy land.
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The funny thing is even if Taiwanese say they will fight for Taiwan, the USA doesn't believe they will. Why else do you think they don't give them modern weapons and stopped them getting nukes? In uncle sam's eyes, those Taiwanese guys are just Chinese who will always go back to where they came from when things are tough. Considering how important people like Jensen Huang and Lisa Su are to America you would expect them to get the treatment of Jews aka America's greatest ally. Instead you get people calling them Chinese as soon as they do something that inconveniences them. And then Jensen Huang goes to Hong Kong to meet with Chinese business leaders, that's just gonna justify American prejudice even more.

Table Tennis player Ma Long went to Taiwan today as part of a school trip and he was swarmed with Taiwanese fans. I know they are at war so the comparison isn't great but can you imagine Russia sending over one of their biggest stars to Ukraine or it's neighbours and everything happened so smoothly? When USA sees stuff like this, they gonna ask if these Taiwanese guys are actually serious about fighting China.

They call Trump stupid but yet he is able to see past bullshit all those other senile guys in the government can't see. He can see Taiwan wants to have it's cake and eat it too. Someone wants US protection by claiming it's fighting China without demonstrating it is serious. Don't try to bullshit a bullshitter here. Trump has done tons of business with China and probably still does. He's been through a lot of crap.

Anyway the way I see it, China is one day gonna have to get ugly and use force to get Taiwan back in the future. Both sides want the status quo coz it's easy. But that wont last forever. So Chinese leadership better be able to press the button without hesitation when the time finally comes. Much like almost any final of an important tournament, you only get once chance so you better make it count.
 
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Randomuser

Randomuser

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Seeing that massive screw up in Syria shows you must always finish the job once started. Assad didn't work hard enough to finish the terrorists in his countries and now they are walking around Aleppo. Strong leaders are not the ones who start the war but the ones to end it on their terms.

People wonder why China is so insistent on finishing the job with Taiwan, this is why. Other country opinions don't matter since they are not the ones in China's position. If they have no risk or anything at stake, they should pipe down. This is something that will judge the history books of China and China alone.
 
I

Index

Senior Member
Registered Member
Randomuser said:
The funny thing is even if Taiwanese say they will fight for Taiwan, the USA doesn't believe they will. Why else do you think they don't give them modern weapons and stopped them getting nukes?
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Because China will wipe them out if KMT acts too much, destroying US' tentative foothold?
Randomuser said:
In uncle sam's eyes, those Taiwanese guys are just Chinese who will always go back to where they came from when things are tough. Considering how important people like Jensen Huang and Lisa Su are to America you would expect them to get the treatment of Jews aka America's greatest ally. Instead you get people calling them Chinese as soon as they do something that inconveniences them. And then Jensen Huang goes to Hong Kong to meet with Chinese business leaders, that's just gonna justify American prejudice even more.

Table Tennis player Ma Long went to Taiwan today as part of a school trip and he was swarmed with Taiwanese fans. I know they are at war so the comparison isn't great but can you imagine Russia sending over one of their biggest stars to Ukraine or it's neighbours and everything happened so smoothly? When USA sees stuff like this, they gonna ask if these Taiwanese guys are actually serious about fighting China.
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That is just an interpretation of the situation, an equally valid interpretation is that US is moving with subversion, preparing for invasion silently without tipping off China too much.
Randomuser said:
They call Trump stupid but yet he is able to see past bullshit all those other senile guys in the government can't see. He can see Taiwan wants to have it's cake and eat it too. Someone wants US protection by claiming it's fighting China without demonstrating it is serious. Don't try to bullshit a bullshitter here. Trump has done tons of business with China and probably still does. He's been through a lot of crap.

Anyway the way I see it, China is one day gonna have to get ugly and use force to get Taiwan back in the future. Both sides want the status quo coz it's easy. But that wont last forever. So Chinese leadership better be able to press the button without hesitation when the time finally comes. Much like almost any final of an important tournament, you only get once chance so you better make it count.
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I don't think it's smart to downplay the huge objective threats that US has made.

You have to remember its not only US that has territory ambitions, but also Japan. And unlike US, Japan has "ties" to the land in China so to say. They have historical revenge motives.

The bottom line is that China must insist on maximum rearmament during the time it's still protected by the "one China policy". Imho everything is going well in terms of raw progress (for example 5th gen procurement rate), only thing that concerns me is low public military spending and the government not acknowledging NATO as the number 1 threat.

Xi Jinping dangerously comes off as China's Poroshenko, a man heading a pro-western government faction with his own pro-western background that because of those factors will not take the threat of a stab in the back and territorial aggression by the "brotherly" West seriously.

You're not really correct that we can only get 1 chance to hold Taiwan. Even if a Crimea style operation by US succeeds, China will be back sooner or later. My largest worry is that it will take territorial loss for China to actually wake up and take its defenses seriously, which will just cause a lot of unnecessary upheaval worldwide.
 
Randomuser

Randomuser

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Index said:
Because China will wipe them out if KMT acts too much, destroying US' tentative foothold?

That is just an interpretation of the situation, an equally valid interpretation is that US is moving with subversion, preparing for invasion silently without tipping off China too much.

I don't think it's smart to downplay the huge objective threats that US has made.

You have to remember its not only US that has territory ambitions, but also Japan. And unlike US, Japan has "ties" to the land in China so to say. They have historical revenge motives.

The bottom line is that China must insist on maximum rearmament during the time it's still protected by the "one China policy". Imho everything is going well in terms of raw progress (for example 5th gen procurement rate), only thing that concerns me is low public military spending and the government not acknowledging NATO as the number 1 threat.

Xi Jinping dangerously comes off as China's Poroshenko, a man heading a pro-western government faction with his own pro-western background that because of those factors will not take the threat of a stab in the back and territorial aggression by the "brotherly" West seriously.

You're not really correct that we can only get 1 chance to hold Taiwan. Even if a Crimea style operation by US succeeds, China will be back sooner or later. My largest worry is that it will take territorial loss for China to actually wake up and take its defenses seriously, which will just cause a lot of unnecessary upheaval worldwide.
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China is putting all its attention on Taiwan. The US can try to be subtle but China is going to find out pretty fast if they are actually giving Taiwan the most modern stuff.

But anyway even if I or USA think the people of Taiwan are not taking their preparation seriously, it should make no difference to the fact Taiwan is the #1 priority for China and therefore China should do everything they can to win when the day comes. Theres only so much you can control over what your opponent does. Even if you know the test or opponent is weak you should do everything to win on the first match. There is no guarantee there is a next time. If anything because Taiwan is slacking off, China should prepare itself better to strike while the iron is hot.

What I think needs to be done is take a balanced approach but understand at the of the day, a stick will still need to be used. And what Im concerned about is the leaders get too comfortable and are unable to use the stick at the critical moment.
 
Z

zhangjim

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tankphobia said:
China is not even pushing any message at the moment. It's basically just a trader that works with whoever has cash. Which is perfectly fine, as I'd rather a few planes fly around Taiwan for another 20 years instead of a globe spanning war killing millions because some flag is painted the wrong colour.

Meanwhile the quality of life of the average Chinese citizen sky rockets, that's definitely more important then grudge settling.
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The development of the world situation is deteriorating, and I have a premonition that the United States is planning to actively ignite the fuse of the strait.
DPP is making every effort to create cultural division and raise the cost of peace plans. The people on the island openly admit that they would not hesitate to choose 'independence' in the absence of military threats.

Politically, DPP is also actively helping the United States to destroy the public opinion environment in Chinese Mainland. Their online propaganda power is more effective than the CIA's hands-on efforts. The problem does not disappear just because you pretend not to see it. DPP is actually on the offensive side and has successfully cooperated with the United States to control the world's perception of China.
Perhaps they are just a group of clowns and thugs, but they cleverly utilize the world situation to play a role far beyond their own strength.
This is not a simple issue of 'flag color', this is not an HOI game, this is a serious topic related to political and social stability.

Since ROC intends to use all despicable means to save its fate, force is the ultimate solution that must be considered.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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zhangjim said:
The development of the world situation is deteriorating, and I have a premonition that the United States is planning to actively ignite the fuse of the strait.
DPP is making every effort to create cultural division and raise the cost of peace plans. The people on the island openly admit that they would not hesitate to choose 'independence' in the absence of military threats.

Politically, DPP is also actively helping the United States to destroy the public opinion environment in Chinese Mainland. Their online propaganda power is more effective than the CIA's hands-on efforts. The problem does not disappear just because you pretend not to see it. DPP is actually on the offensive side and has successfully cooperated with the United States to control the world's perception of China.
Perhaps they are just a group of clowns and thugs, but they cleverly utilize the world situation to play a role far beyond their own strength.
This is not a simple issue of 'flag color', this is not an HOI game, this is a serious topic related to political and social stability.

Since ROC intends to use all despicable means to save its fate, force is the ultimate solution that must be considered.
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DPP is modern 大政翼赞会.
 
lcloo

lcloo

Captain
I am wondering, if AR comes after 2030, the initial waves of troops landing on the beach would be tens of thousands of 4 legged warriors, and other armed UGV, and supported by swarms of aerial drones and unmanned bombardment surface ships. PLA human troops would follow up after the ROC troops fight till they reached fatigue or after ROC troops resistence has been reduced.

That is the advantage when you have the World's largest industrial base and manufacuring output.

Call me a fanboy's dream if you like.
 
Randomuser

Randomuser

Senior Member
Registered Member
zhangjim said:
The development of the world situation is deteriorating, and I have a premonition that the United States is planning to actively ignite the fuse of the strait.
DPP is making every effort to create cultural division and raise the cost of peace plans. The people on the island openly admit that they would not hesitate to choose 'independence' in the absence of military threats.

Politically, DPP is also actively helping the United States to destroy the public opinion environment in Chinese Mainland. Their online propaganda power is more effective than the CIA's hands-on efforts. The problem does not disappear just because you pretend not to see it. DPP is actually on the offensive side and has successfully cooperated with the United States to control the world's perception of China.
Perhaps they are just a group of clowns and thugs, but they cleverly utilize the world situation to play a role far beyond their own strength.
This is not a simple issue of 'flag color', this is not an HOI game, this is a serious topic related to political and social stability.

Since ROC intends to use all despicable means to save its fate, force is the ultimate solution that must be considered.
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Anyone who isnt 100% on the idealism train knows one day China will have to use force. The question is when.

Maybe Yellowstone park will explode or a meteor magically hits USA and removes it without China doing anything. Or someone their president is retarded enough to dissolve the USA. Then that would be pretty optimal.

But since we don't expect that to happen we will just have to see what's the entry price to buy into war.
 
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