Aye, and to further elaborate on these points, the US and it's ideological enablers are at the point that anything less than their total ideological control is totally unacceptable and will act out the same way that the Israelis have been doing to Palestinians and Lebanese et al, so the necessity of facing this down once and for all is something China must do if the human race itself is to have a future, and is happening much sooner rather than later.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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I don't know where you pull out these Chinese empires attacked other countries without provocations from. When has the official Chinese history books ever claimed China attacked others for no reason, there is always a valid justification. I don't recall in the Chinese official history where the Battle of Talas was a really big deal, because it wasn't. The Battle of Talas wasn't like the Tang's Emperor's pet project or anything, and there still many controveries regarding the origins of that battle. Nor have I seen critism regarding Tang's expansion into Central Asia, infact we see many subtle praises for Tang's expansion in Central Asia, especially today. Furthermore Emperor Xuanzong presided over one of China's golden age, his main fault lies with the An Lushan rebellion, which is unrelated to battle of Talas.
Your example proves my point, in the official Chinese history most of the blame for Tumu Crisis was assigned to the Eunuch Wang Zhen, not to the young Emperor Yingzong. No one faults the Ming Emperors for fighting a war with the Oirad (Mongols), especially since the Oirads were the aggressors and have been constantly provoked the Ming for a long time.
I don't see anywhere in the official history books where Liu Bang was faulted for fighting with Xiongnu or his grandoise visions. Liu Bang distrusting Han Xing is very valid since Liu Bang wants to reunite all of China, and Han Xing has a large military under his command and has a questionable history with everybody. History books might fault Liu Bang for being too harsh towards Han Xing and his other early subordinates, but nobody faults Liu Bang for having expansionist dreams. Without Liu Bang's selfish thoughts for personal glory, China (Han) might have never been reunited like under the Qin, it very well could have continued like the warring kingdoms of the old days and turn into a larger Europe.
None of your examples assigned blame to the residing Emperors for their supposed military defeats, on the contrary most of those emperors were greatly appraised for their military victories or social policies. I don't disagree that aggressive expansionist policies might have had negative consequences for historical Chinese dynasties, but I'm pointing out rarely does the official narrative assign that blame to the Emperor. Also I think you picked really bad examples to support your point though.
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I feel like the red scare was far more dangerous than whatever is occurring at the moment. The US especially with the current breed of conservatives led by Trump has showed nothing but a large swing towards isolationism. Globally ideological conflicts have cooled down and replaced with religious ones with the recent rise of ISIS, Hindu nationalism and Christian militias.
China is not even pushing any message at the moment. It's basically just a trader that works with whoever has cash. Which is perfectly fine, as I'd rather a few planes fly around Taiwan for another 20 years instead of a globe spanning war killing millions because some flag is painted the wrong colour.
Meanwhile the quality of life of the average Chinese citizen sky rockets, that's definitely more important then grudge settling.
HK was occupied by the British for over 200 years.
Yes, some in HK have the mental disease where they think they are British, but 90+% of the population is normal.
Japan occupied Taiwan for 70 years, only the really diseased think they are Japanese (all of them are probably on Reddit)
What do you think the DPP can do that even the peak UK cannot?
All those "Taiwanese Identity" surveys are horsepoop. Same with those Kuma Academy or other nonsense. It's really easy to mark something online and play with airsoft, but in the end it's just living in a fantasy land.
This is less about grudge settling than it is about the very fact that the western lifestyle is literally killing the world biosphere itself on top the profiteering off of and exacerbating people's socioeconomic misery which is also literally killing people too. This is not a recipe for long-term sustainability by any measure, and only China has made the necessary comprehensive investments to actually overcome these issues that the west itself created. That's also why the neocon/neolib elites in the west want to start a conflict with China to retain and expand their privileges over everyone else, as the 'golden billion' notion wasn't simply a meme but a declaration of intention of who is permitted to live and everybody else gets consumed.
Why is a US "invasion" of Taiwan inevitable?
My guess is that the Chinese military strength will continue to increase and trend towards 1.5-2x larger than the US, but this will play out over the next 2 decades. What are the odds of the USA wanting a war with China is such a scenario?
And remember that the US is forecast for government budget deficits of 7% of GDP for the next decade.
That is combined with a debt increases of 7% of GDP per year, plus continuing 3% trade deficits.
And this doesn't consider the impact of Trump tax cuts and/or attempts to increase military spending.
So in 10 years time, the US financial position will be far more precarious. If there is a loss of confidence (which would only be a matter of time if US financials continue like they are), then there will be a huge political/financial crisis and we'll see the US retreat from the Western Pacific.
i dont think PRC china have any big problem with military/economy for the war
in my view their problem are :both grovernment and people still somewhat naive , too peaceful . lack of necessary cruelty/insanity confident toward the reality world
highly likely even if they willing go to a shooting war , they still gonna try to capture taiwan in the most peaceful way possible
leaving so many chance/open for taiwanese/us/allied gang causing so many unnecessary casualties in hope of somehow the world will respect china after that muh so much effort , so much respect for human life even with ....big cost ...lol
no the reality world is very cruel and brutal , deep down people around the globe only remember and respect total lopeside victory doesn't matter how you do it , respect awesome winner with massive +k/d ratio record doesn't matter that include civilian or not
the lack of confident cruelty also the reason why the west and many people outside the west keep their habit of criticism/look down at china (specially freedom human right,uyghur ,tiananmen square,culture revolution, ten milions of death..etc) without any sight of stop even thought so many china grovernment , netizen effort , wall of text , counter argument , fact check ..etc to prove china still good guy
meanwhile american ,westerners the one supposed to be brightest example of respect human right , freedom , good guy go around bragging about lopeside victory , big k/d ratio , laugh like maniac when someone criticism them about cruelty , imperialism , massacre , disregard human life...etc when their own society suffer all sort of living standard problem without any serious sight of social unrest + guns ownership behind every blade of grass > anarchy > civil war > warlord era
why is that ? because that humanity process : people don't care about truth , people only mock,"criticism" you if they know that gonna hurt you make you feel bad , feel shamful , feel ashamed of what you did or feel unjust in case you didn't but wrongful accused
make you spend alot of effort try everything you can : wall of text explain , fact check , denied out of shame...
nobody gonna do that if they know doing it only make you even more happy and feel good
image how things much easier for china if 1.4b of chinese people and CCP just "embrace the dark side" and having that cruelty/insanity confident
GFW no longer need , massive grovernment spending in "social harmony" (bigger than military budget) no longer need >that money go to military allow thousand of stealth fighter , ten aircraft carrier show up in no time
and last any kind of western/US anti-china propagranda hoping to spark some sort of color revolution , regime change become utterly useless
remember "embrace the dark side" growth a spine care only about your k/d ratio allow your people go around bragging vs other , gave zero fuck about any criticism , go around bragging lmao your and entire your race/are worthless at the end of the day your worthless shit die in milions compare to our tiny loss
and yeah bad shit happen alot of people die + what a fucking great potential traitors turkey shot and ? we still stronger , richer , wealthier , way more tech advantage , better living standard than you trash now eat my sanctions
that the true thing make your nation top dog , ruler of the world not benevolent , remember why liubei faction get rekted first among 3 kingdom ? and caocao faction most brutal , most evil last longest out of 3 ?
why do you think american/westerner/japanese even taiwanese love nazi germany so much and look down at stalin soviet ?
because nazi cause alot of dealth out of hate and feel good while doing it , soviet stalin on the other hand....cause dealth to cover up , out of fear outside world will view them as bad guy
turn out ....the outside world developed even more wrongful view of stalin soviet and fan boy nazi germany than ever lmao =))
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the issue is more so that the US government and public may not have the right idea of how their military may perform in combat with China. The same applies to the Chinese side. If all state leaders can make rational decisions based on precise understanding of balance of power then wars would never happen.
West doesn't like nazis because anything nazis did, but because they have the legacy of the nazis.
WW2 was fought because a coalition of aggressors wanted to conquer the USSR's eastern Europe and China's Taiwan. WW3 will just be us people of today finishing with the nazis what our ancestors couldn't. Some borders were redrawn and some nations switched sides, but the war is over the same reasons. USA was in Allies by name only, the first thing they did was to save nazi Germany and Japan. Ever since the end of WW2, they have promoted Axis territory claims, which is the whole reason we're fighting over Taiwan, an Axis Japanese territory claim against Allies China, now revived by Axis US.
Beijing needs to mobilize but things like high social spending shouldn't be easily slashed, its something that makes China stronger over time.
The defender nations, who just fight to preserve our way of life, not for cruelty like the Axis, have inherent disadvantages in fanaticism. But that weakness in fanatism also gives us advantages in innovation, goods production and social trust.
Fanatics who fight for plunder, rape and murder don't do well in real battles, which is why the Kwantung army was crushed despite equal equipment by the PLA, why Germany lost despite having all of Europe against the USSR, and why US army could not achieve better than equal k/d ratio with land loss vs a much less equipped PVA in Korea.
Striving to be a society of fanatics is not only morally bad, it makes your country weaker in war and worse to live in.
China needs to strike the balance of firm but humane, like how the Soviets treated Germans. Honestly I don't think this will be too hard, it's something they can adjust as the battle goes on.
You can argue that US is only flailing without direction because the regime has weakened so much, but many of their moves point towards an imminent invasion. They're sending arms, building alliances with collaborators that can help them take ground, they're stopping just short of officially recognising and announcing an alliance with the separatists, like Putin did in Feb 24, probably only because they fear China's military strength.
I don't exactly know why US is obsessed with taking Taiwan (other than delusions about being a world dictator that can repaint borders at will), but for Japan, grudge settling is the exact reason. The LDP Showa Yokusankai dinosaurs have a massive grudge at China for taking Taiwan back from them. And they don't give 2 rats asses about how a war would impact either Japanese or Americans, they just want blood and can't be negotiated with.
Climate and resource predictions have not changed, they choose to ignore it for hegemony. There are not enough resources on this planet for everyone to live like them. So there are 2 solutions:
1. China has offered the world an alternative of renewable energy, megaengineering and sensible moderation in human per capita resource usage to achieve high social outcomes while improving energy technology until we can stabilize the biosphere. The Wandering Earth way.
2. The alternative is that they refuse to reform or share, attack China, and allow the situation to play out with them on top. Some will drive gas guzzling hummers and yachts, a great deal more will have little but scraps, and even more simply won't survive. The inequality and oppression is a feature, not a bug. The 1984 way before going Mad Max.