PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

lcloo

lcloo

Captain
Not directly related to PLA's Taiwan contingency, but I think it is still relevant as Kinmen island is under Taiwan's control.

A large crane barge with 5,500 tons lifting capacity has arrived at the construction site of the Xiamen-Kinmen bridge. The bridge will be completed in 2026 and will link Xiamen city on Mainland China and Kinmen island.

Xiamen city already has a under sea pipeline supplying treated fresh water to Kinmen. This bridge shall be the second project linking the two places.

 
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lcloo

lcloo

Captain
Wrought said:
Interesting distribution of exercise zones, very different from the previous ones. I wonder if they will add more as the exercises continue.
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Though there is no blockade of Taiwan island this time, the selection of exercise areas and noted departure of type 075 and type071 from their ports may indicate beach assault landing and helicopter troop landing drills and possible live firing.

It looks like post blockade phase of planning, i.e. first blockade the island as in previous exercises then follow up later (as in this exercise) with landing phase.

Also Shanghai area may include anti-submarine, anti foreign countries' intervention of AR, ship based air defense against air strikes on Mainland facilities and near home water/port protection. My 2 cents worth of thoughts, waiting for actual reports from Chinese news reportings.
 
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Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

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Taiwan raises alert as China deploys 90 ships in likely drills​


Taiwan's intelligence agency claims there are currently about 90 Chinese Navy and Coast Guard vessels in waters near Taiwan, Japan's southern islands and the East and South China Seas, of which about two-thirds are military vessels. It may be that the new exercises can cover almost the entire First Island Chain, hence the huge amount of ships and their proper positions as shown on Rybar's map:
photo_2024-12-08_15-10-00.jpg
 
B

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
zhangjim said:
I find it hard to imagine that the air force on the island would launch an effective counterattack or missile attack.
Does this indicate that there is a risk of American air strikes on the southeast coastal areas?
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The most likely scenario being practiced should be interdiction defense of Taiwan against invading air and naval forces.

Green arrows show how the ground force can simulate behind the line attacks by rebel forces, while the black arrow indicates the enemy regular forces' main simulated offensive.
IMG_20241209_151944_edit_530263726820649.jpg
 
0

00CuriousObserver

New Member
Registered Member
Don't think that infographic is accurate. Both carriers were in dock on the 7th. And
Sinnavuuty said:
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Taiwan raises alert as China deploys 90 ships in likely drills​


Taiwan's intelligence agency claims there are currently about 90 Chinese Navy and Coast Guard vessels in waters near Taiwan, Japan's southern islands and the East and South China Seas, of which about two-thirds are military vessels. It may be that the new exercises can cover almost the entire First Island Chain, hence the huge amount of ships and their proper positions as shown on Rybar's map:
View attachment 140643
Click to expand...

I'm fairly sure this infographic is not correct, but I haven't bothered to look too deeply. Just gonna leave a question mark here for now.
 
K

Kich

Junior Member
Registered Member
lcloo said:
Not directly related to PLA's Taiwan contingency, but I think it is still relevant as Kinmen island is under Taiwan's control.

A large crane barge with 5,500 tons lifting capacity has arrived at the construction site of the Xiamen-Kinmen bridge. The bridge will be completed in 2026 and will link Xiamen city on Mainland China and Kinmen island.

Xiamen city already has a under sea pipeline supplying treated fresh water to Kinmen. This bridge shall be the second project linking the two places.

Click to expand...
I'm surprise that there's this level of economic cooperation between Taiwan and China.

The media and political rhetoric makes it sound like war will happen in 2 years but instead both sides are working on opening up a bridge together in 2 years.
 
I

iewgnem

Junior Member
Registered Member
Sinnavuuty said:
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Taiwan raises alert as China deploys 90 ships in likely drills​


Taiwan's intelligence agency claims there are currently about 90 Chinese Navy and Coast Guard vessels in waters near Taiwan, Japan's southern islands and the East and South China Seas, of which about two-thirds are military vessels. It may be that the new exercises can cover almost the entire First Island Chain, hence the huge amount of ships and their proper positions as shown on Rybar's map:
View attachment 140643
Click to expand...
I always found it strange that people believe in the existence of a situation where PLA tries to land on Taiwan while US is actively engaged with PLA at the same time.

If US fires on PLA, amphibious landing destination will be Okinawa and other 1IC islands, not Taiwan.
If US doesn't fire on PLA, armed landing won't be necessary with a blockade.
Ergo, armed amphibious landing exercises are for Okinawa, not Taiwan.
 
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