PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Brainsuker

Junior Member
Registered Member
production rate of J-35 ramps up, at least 100 J-20 per year, a dozen or so PLAN warships in the pipeline, significant number of submarines produced (and estimated to dramatically ramp up in the following years in fact) and a lot more equipment/ammunition in the pipeline.

what's to fear lol.
With the Chinese military production machine slightly showing a bit of it's muscles, it's the US that should be panicking right now. China can just chillax and enjoy the clown show happening on its periphery

What does J-35 and J-20 can do in an offensive military operation? Both J-35 and J-20 are fighter. They are defensive platforms to protect China sky, not to bring nightmare to the enemy land. Can both J-35 and J-20 bring a bomb as big as FAB-3000? Or at least FAB-1500? The biggest bomb they can bring is FAB-500 or equivalent. And that is not enough in an offensive war in Taiwan. Because Taiwan is not Hamas in Gaza.
 

LuzinskiJ

Junior Member
Registered Member
EDCA is certainly not insignificant, progress on its implementation has been modest so far
EDCA bases is a money grab that Marcos did right. He offered up some decrepit bases (or sometimes just a patch of jungle) to give the impression that he is on board with the US and puts China on notice. For that, the US is spending upwards of $100 million to refurbish them which I think is not enough. For example, one of EDCA bases is naval bases Narciso del Rosario on Balabac island across the Balabac strait from Borneo. And it is said to be one of the two bases, along with Antonio Bautista airbase, that checkmates the heavily fortified Spratly Island military base. It currently has an almost completed runway but no naval facilities, so it will be another couple of more years and many more millions of dollars for it to be proper naval station. Marcos wants to open up southern and eastern Philippines for development, and EDCA money is the way he goes about it. While EDCA is a good talking point for both USA and Philippines; their strategic significance vis-a-vis China is, IMHO, tenuous at best. I believe those bases are there so in case Taiwan is lost, there are still 9 US bases in the strategic Southern China Sea area to keep up the facade of US relevance in that part of the world.

(Note: this is probably the wrong thread for the above post)
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
EDCA bases is a money grab that Marcos did right. He offered up some decrepit bases (or sometimes just a patch of jungle) to give the impression that he is on board with the US and puts China on notice. For that, the US is spending upwards of $100 million to refurbish them which I think is not enough. For example, one of EDCA bases is naval bases Narciso del Rosario on Balabac island across the Balabac strait from Borneo. And it is said to be one of the two bases, along with Antonio Bautista airbase, that checkmates the heavily fortified Spratly Island military base. It currently has an almost completed runway but no naval facilities, so it will be another couple of more years and many more millions of dollars for it to be proper naval station. Marcos wants to open up southern and eastern Philippines for development, and EDCA money is the way he goes about it. While EDCA is a good talking point for both USA and Philippines; their strategic significance vis-a-vis China is, IMHO, tenuous at best. I believe those bases are there so in case Taiwan is lost, there are still 9 US bases in the strategic Southern China Sea area to keep up the facade of US relevance in that part of the world.

(Note: this is probably the wrong thread for the above post)
Those bases along with the surrounding infrastructures will be gone in a Sino-American war.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
What does J-35 and J-20 can do in an offensive military operation? Both J-35 and J-20 are fighter. They are defensive platforms to protect China sky, not to bring nightmare to the enemy land. Can both J-35 and J-20 bring a bomb as big as FAB-3000? Or at least FAB-1500? The biggest bomb they can bring is FAB-500 or equivalent. And that is not enough in an offensive war in Taiwan. Because Taiwan is not Hamas in Gaza.

J-20/J-35 are Defensive platform ? it shows how much or little you know about them
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
What does J-35 and J-20 can do in an offensive military operation? Both J-35 and J-20 are fighter. They are defensive platforms to protect China sky, not to bring nightmare to the enemy land. Can both J-35 and J-20 bring a bomb as big as FAB-3000? Or at least FAB-1500? The biggest bomb they can bring is FAB-500 or equivalent. And that is not enough in an offensive war in Taiwan. Because Taiwan is not Hamas in Gaza.
Uhhh how about asserting air superiority to prevent America and Japan from flying in to interfere?
 

Index

Senior Member
Registered Member
I have it on good authority (Shilao) that in the simulations in the wake of 96 Crisis a non-trivial number of simulated run of reunification went down the path of using nuclear weapons on Taiwan to salvage unfavourable outcome. In these matters never say never.
This, China will never surrender populated territory.
NFU policy can be renounced prior to a nuclear attack. If decision has been made to go nuclear do you really think NFU would be a barrier?
NFU concerns attacks on foreign states.
What does J-35 and J-20 can do in an offensive military operation? Both J-35 and J-20 are fighter. They are defensive platforms to protect China sky, not to bring nightmare to the enemy land. Can both J-35 and J-20 bring a bomb as big as FAB-3000? Or at least FAB-1500? The biggest bomb they can bring is FAB-500 or equivalent.
And that is not enough in an offensive war in Taiwan.
I think you need to read up on the very basics like what is a jet fighter etc
Because Taiwan is not Hamas in Gaza.
The difference is that Israel won't fight in Gaza to the last Israeli because it's not their core territory, while China will go to the end to protect Taiwan.

However the strategy involves a great deal of active defense, which means 5th gen with high penetrative power will be used to SEAD and take control of airspace far behind enemy lines. China will not just hunker down in Taiwan and wait for US to come, it will hunt down US forces across Asia, destroying the invader's cohesion and formations while they're in different states of readiness.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Taiwan seems prepare so well.
Really? Their training clips are usually comedic. I'd say they are an excellent example of not taking this fight seriously because they expect for the US to win for them or to just lose.
What happen if their preparation has reach the level above the limit of China mainland plan? I mean, a level where the PLA calculate that it is not worthed because it can take more casualty that PRC can take, and then they declare Independent to provoke China?
Then we use saturation missile strike to bring them far far lower than the limit before the invasion.
But look at their preparation.
We see. It's funny.
US and Japan have build some bases around Taiwan. This defensive web that they create can give a lot of trouble for PLA if they intend to invaded Taiwan. China can follow Sun Tzu advice by waiting for longer. But what happen if the Taiwan President become Zelinski by declare independent or joining NATO? Can China stay silent or just doing some kind of training parade like what they did until now?
1. The things they prepared are only trouble if you tried to launch an invasion without missile and artillery strikes to take these things out and soften the target firts. The is the purpose behind China developing the PLA Rocket Force and Second Artillery Corps to become the most active and likely the most formidable missile strike entities in the world.

2. The current trend is that the Chinese military is expanding its capabilities far faster than the US or any other possible combatant. Basically, the opposite of the trend you seem to fear.
What does J-35 and J-20 can do in an offensive military operation? Both J-35 and J-20 are fighter. They are defensive platforms to protect China sky, not to bring nightmare to the enemy land.
Can both J-35 and J-20 bring a bomb as big as FAB-3000? Or at least FAB-1500? The biggest bomb they can bring is FAB-500 or equivalent. And that is not enough in an offensive war in Taiwan. Because Taiwan is not Hamas in Gaza.
Clear the skies and put them under our control so our transports, bombers, helicopters, everything can operate freely. Otherwise, they would be vulnerable to enemy fighters and anti-aircraft systems. Seems you are terribly unfamiliar with aerial warfare in general. You think the US developed F-22 and F-35 for defense??
 
Last edited:

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
I have it on good authority (Shilao) that in the simulations in the wake of 96 Crisis a non-trivial number of simulated run of reunification went down the path of using nuclear weapons on Taiwan to salvage unfavourable outcome. In these matters never say never.
Nuclear war doesn't care on what authority you're on. Never say never? How about asking why first?

Talking about a post-1996 scenario for the Taiwan scenario of today is a moot point. We are fortunate that armed reunification didn't happen back then. In 1996, the power gap between the PLA and the US military was so vast, that nukes and extreme sacrifices were needed to create deterrence factors. The PLA of today is not gonna be using the same war plans as 1996. We are entering 2025 already, and you're gonna be bring up post-1996 simulations and mindsets?

NFU policy can be renounced prior to a nuclear attack. If decision has been made to go nuclear do you really think NFU would be a barrier?
That's a pointless argument. Don't be arguing just for argument's sake. Renouncing NFU at the last minute is still no justification to nuke China's own lands based on assumptions. If China were to renounce the NFU anyway, why not go ahead and nuke the US 7th fleet first? No? Afraid of US retaliation? Then will nuking Taiwan with US forces on it not trigger retaliation anyway?

Yeah, never say never. But talking about nuking Taiwan is cheap. Again, today is not 1996 or 2001. If the China of today wants to deny Taiwan from US occupation, there are so many more options to go for before even thinking about using nukes. Naval blockade, long range bombardment, mines, submarines, drone warfare, guerilla warfare, etc. I don't understand this obsession about justifying using Chinese nukes on Taiwan.
 
Last edited:
Top