Can ROC force prevent PLA from blockading the island and bombing all the infrastructures on the island?
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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There is only so much they can do and more importantly, only so much they are willing to do.
The question has been about China-US for a long time.
The question has been about China-US for a long time.
Russia considers deploying intermediate range missiles to Asia.
There are no international restrictions on the deployment of Russia’s newest Oreshnik missile system, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said.
"The president has clearly said that this is a new intermediate-range system. Hence, there are no restrictions on the deployment of such systems amid the lack of any limitations in this sphere, including following the profoundly erroneous step taken by the first administration [of US President Donald Trump] to withdraw from the INF (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces) Treaty and dismantle it," he told journalists.
But look at their preparation. US and Japan have build some bases around Taiwan. This defensive web that they create can give a lot of trouble for PLA if they intend to invaded Taiwan. China can follow Sun Tzu advice by waiting for longer. But what happen if the Taiwan President become Zelinski by declare independent or joining NATO? Can China stay silent or just doing some kind of training parade like what they did until now?
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Where is this fortress around Taiwan? All of their bases are behind Taiwan by 100s of km.
What makes you think that getting something you want behind a web doesn't also involve removing the web and crushing the bugs that made it?
I don’t get why you keep hoping that China won’t response to an existential crossing of the red lines.
Well, they haven't respond well to the things that Japan and US have done so far near Taiwan. Just look at US newest bases at the northern Philippine island. China failed to bring respond that can make Marcos to cancel his treaty with US. Their harassing Pinoy fishermen in SCS can only bring patriotic respond from Pinoys. Not Fear from them. And what China do to give message to US to an extend that they have to think twice before making a more aggressive stand near China?
1. I think what China need is a move that can bring FEAR to Pinoy more than make them feel annoyed and more patriotic. Whatever it takes. I think there is a country that hate Pinoy more than they hate China. It is Malaysia. Because Pinoy claims Sabah in their latest map. Create a Philippine pivot to the table. Yes, I know that Malaysia is closer to UK than China. But right now, Philippine has threaten their national integrity, and I'm sure US and UK will prioritize Pinoy because of China.
2. Use China proxy in ASEAN, like Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos to attack Philippine in ASEAN meeting. Accuse them as a trouble maker that bring chaos the the peace in South East Asia. I'm sure another ASEAN Countries like Indonesia will also think about the provocation as a trouble that can break the peace in South East Asia. So play well in this diplomacy route to push Philippine in diplomacy area.
3. STOP China harassing Pinoy fishermen in SCS, because that move really useless. Rather that bring fear to Pinoy, it make another ASEAN countries to be more wary to China, and may bring them to the US camp. To be honest, China need to resolve 9 dash line claim with another ASEAN Countries beside Vietnam and Phillipine better. If they can return a mountain to Vietnam when they want to normalize their diplomatic relation, then why not some sea to Malaysia?
4. IF China can, just bring Moro and another Pinoy rebels to the table again. Give them more AK47, Anti Tank, and Manpad to give more headache to Philippine government. And when the Government throw missiles from above the manpad range, China can bring propaganda about Pinoy killing Muslims in Philippine.
5. Bring H-20 to the table quicker, to give message to Japan and another US-Allies in South East Asia. And make a video about it shooting a very big missile like FAB3000 to convey the messages.
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First of all, some differing opinions than what I usually see here. Differing opinions are good and welcomed as long as they are reasonable and in good faith.
I did look at them. You should also have a look at the "bases" in northern Luzon. They look like this (Lal-lo and Camilo Osias):
These don't make enough of an impact in the context of a HIC with China, and we're not seeing much changes from them.
There have been some more notable upgrades at Basa Air Base and Subic Bay, but these are located ~400 km south near Manila. The scope of the upgrades are also relatively limited.
While EDCA is certainly not insignificant, progress on its implementation has been modest so far. Ultimately, the Philippines' primary focus lies in the SCS. By comparison, the upgrades to Chinese bases in recent years are on an entirely different scale and not comparable.
Whether the SCS situation may cause ASEAN countries to lean more toward the US or not is highly questionable. In fact, we have seen the opposite (partially thanks to Israel). And we’ve seen instances like visits by Malaysian and Indonesian presidents to China, increased high-level communication with Vietnam, and the recent Sino-Singaporean military exercise.
I did look at them. You should also have a look at the "bases" in northern Luzon. They look like this (Lal-lo and Camilo Osias):
These don't make enough of an impact in the context of a HIC with China, and we're not seeing much changes from them.
There have been some more notable upgrades at Basa Air Base and Subic Bay, but these are located ~400 km south near Manila. The scope of the upgrades are also relatively limited.
While EDCA is certainly not insignificant, progress on its implementation has been modest so far. Ultimately, the Philippines' primary focus lies in the SCS. By comparison, the upgrades to Chinese bases in recent years are on an entirely different scale and not comparable.
Whether the SCS situation may cause ASEAN countries to lean more toward the US or not is highly questionable. In fact, we have seen the opposite (partially thanks to Israel). And we’ve seen instances like visits by Malaysian and Indonesian presidents to China, increased high-level communication with Vietnam, and the recent Sino-Singaporean military exercise.
production rate of J-35 ramps up, at least 100 J-20 per year, a dozen or so PLAN warships in the pipeline, significant number of submarines produced (and estimated to dramatically ramp up in the following years in fact) and a lot more equipment/ammunition in the pipeline.
what's to fear lol.
With the Chinese military production machine slightly showing a bit of it's muscles, it's the US that should be panicking right now. China can just chillax and enjoy the clown show happening on its periphery
I have it on good authority (Shilao) that in the simulations in the wake of 96 Crisis a non-trivial number of simulated run of reunification went down the path of using nuclear weapons on Taiwan to salvage unfavourable outcome. In these matters never say never.
NFU policy can be renounced prior to a nuclear attack. If decision has been made to go nuclear do you really think NFU would be a barrier?