PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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Miyayaya

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  • Exercise Start Time Adjustment: Exercise A begins at 7:45 AM, while Exercise B starts earlier at 5:00 AM.
  • Exercise Targets: The targets on the island now include Keelung in northern Taiwan and Taitung in eastern Taiwan.
  • Exercise Areas: The exercise areas remain the Taiwan Strait, northern Taiwan, southern Taiwan, and the eastern part of the island, forming a joint encirclement of Taiwan. However, Kinmen Island is excluded, likely because regular law enforcement operations by the Coast Guard have been normalized in the Kinmen area.
  • Exercise Content: For the first time, the concept of "key ports and areas risk control" is introduced. Additionally, the expression "strikes on sea and land" is different from previous phrasing.
  • Bilingual Announcements: The announcements are released in both Chinese and English to ensure that the U.S. and other external countries can understand them.
  • Participating Forces: The Liaoning aircraft carrier and the 10,000-ton Coast Guard vessel 2901 are involved, representing a joint exercise by the Northern, Southern, and Eastern Theater Commands.
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Some observation of this exercise compared to 2024A, also by @牧星观海天 on Weibo (machine translated)

Liaoning's WESTPAC trip and participation in this exercise so shortly after is really interesting to me
 
lych470

lych470

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Miyayaya said:
"Our assessment is that no matter what Lai says on October 10, they might put a name on existing exercises and call it Joint Sword - 2024B. That's a possibility"

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I tend to agree with this assessment. Or rather, the exercise was already prepared, and the go ahead was finalized after Lai's speech
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Wouldn't be surprising. I'm speculating here, but it's quite possible for the Standing Committee and the CMC to know the content of Lai's speech much in advance of 10/10, so that they can plan a drill in the immediate aftermath.
 
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