PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
drowingfish said:
the answer is VERY. because if Japan does not led its support to the US, the US may as well not engage China over Taiwan. without Japan, the US will have no air and naval base within meaningful proximity to Taiwan.
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From what I can see, both the US and Japanese governments have acknowledged that there is no point in the US going to war with China, unless the US has access to bases located in Japan.

So the logical counter is to persuade Japan that it shouldn't join the US in any war.

That is feasible because all of Japan is within 1300km of China. That is within reach of heavyweight fighters like the J-20 and J-16, shopping with Tomahawk/JAASM class
Cruise missiles.
 
L

Lime

Junior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
Nope, I doubt it. China has no interest to fight a war on Taiwan. Their focus is to put so much grey zone pressure on Taiwan that Taiwanese public lose all hope of winning a Taiwan war and US coming for the rescue. It also increases their fear of a war and they vote KMT in the hope of peace. Winning without a fight is the goal
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The footsteps of war are approaching not means there will be a battle.
KMT and DDP is the same. If you read the policy of China carefully you will understand that the unification is coming soon.
 
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antiterror13

Brigadier
grulle said:
Will Japan, if it decides to join the US in any Taiwan scenario, be a valuable asset (for the US)? I mean I looked up its naval equipment and I was not too impressed. It only has 8 full sized destroyers with 90+ VLS that carry standard missiles. The rest 28 smaller destroyers only have 32 VLS that carry the quad packed ESSM, with 50km range. These smaller ones have to get awfully close to China's mainland to have an impact. Maybe its strength lies in its excellent submarine force? Or maybe its air force? I used panic at the thought of a combined US+Japan+Korea involvement in a Taiwan scenario. But when you look closer at their equipment it does not seem so scary. Maybe Japan's most usefulness is in its military bases, able to provide the US with a place to refuel and re-arm.
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When China and the navy has access to Sea of Japan, which it will absolutely, Japanese navy will have to put the majority of their navy in sea of Japan, also don't forget of Russia an NK factors. The answer is big No, Japan and SK will not get involved directly with their navy, however definitely will get involved indirectly supporting US Navy
 
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drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
antiterror13 said:
When China and the navy has access to Sea of Japan, which it will absolutely, Japanese navy will have to put the majority of their navy in sea of Japan, also don't forget of Russia an NK factors. The answer is big No, Japan and SK will not get involved directly with their navy, however definitely will get involved indirectly supporting US Navy
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i kind of get the point of 076 now. aside from fire support over Taiwan, I think it will be a critical component to breaking through the first island chain, by projecting firepower onto the various islands on which US forces are stationed. most importantly, Okinawa and Luzon are two islands that are in the way of PLAN's flanking maneuver to get to the east side of Taiwan to complete a blockade.

by placing 076 about 400km northeast and southwest of Taiwan would permit ship-borne UAVs to get within striking distance of Okinawa and Luzon, but maintain enough distance to enable reaction time against potential attacks. Should the need arise, an intense few salvos of missiles would give PLAN the opening to deploy, then use its stealth UAVs to defeat the US garrison in detail. while PLAN carrier groups gain air-superiority (or at least deny it to the US) and act as scouts to seek out US carrier battlegroups, 076's mission would be to destroy island-based enemies.
 
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LuzinskiJ

Junior Member
Registered Member
antiterror13 said:
The answer is big No, Japan and SK will not get involved directly with their navy, however definitely will get involved indirectly supporting US Navy
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How would JPN and SK provide indirect support to the US in an arm conflict between US and China without being directly involved? Any basing of ships will automatically make that base a legitimate target. Even ISR support is hard to pull off. If JPN or SK provide ISR via AWACS or reconnaissance ships and China actively retaliates (via jamming and harassment) against those assets leading to lose of lives and material, then what will JPN and SK do? Any significant indirect support will inevitably become direct support. Unless that indirect support is so miniscule that it becomes irrelevant to the outcome of the conflict. Knowing this, US will try hard to pull both JPN and SK into a direct conflict with China to ensure a victory. In short, how much is supremacy worth to the US? The answer is it is worth as many Japanese and Korean as it takes.
 
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bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
To make the conflict as flawless as possible, I wouldn't even land troops on Taiwan. First, Just destroy every single military, energy and government structure. Second, send a missile to destroy troops. Troops are easily spotted by satellites and drones. Third, navy block.

This is how U.S fought ISIS. No army involved. Just bombed EVERYTHING. lol The point is to severely weaken them, but not to take over by landing.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
bebops said:
To make the conflict as flawless as possible, I wouldn't even land troops on Taiwan. First, Just destroy every single military, energy and government structure. Second, send a missile to destroy troops. Troops are easily spotted by satellites and drones. Third, navy block.

This is how U.S fought ISIS. No army involved. Just bombed EVERYTHING. lol The point is to severely weaken them, but not to take over by landing.
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Russia has taught us that this is the correct approach. To fight with reserve and consideration for our enemy simply because he is kin would be too dangerous to ourselves. Brotherhood after surrender; prior to that, you fight them with absolute lethality like they are demons risen out of cracks in the ground from Hell.
 
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