PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
Japan has no autonomy.
Well... they may not have autonomy, but they are clearly not suicidal. The Japanese (population and political/military leaders) know that if a war breaks out in the region and Japan is in the middle of it, the chance of taking some hits with nuclear weapons is very real and China is not the only threat with nuclear weapons in this scenario.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Well... they may not have autonomy, but they are clearly not suicidal. The Japanese (population and political/military leaders) know that if a war breaks out in the region and Japan is in the middle of it, the chance of taking some hits with nuclear weapons is very real and China is not the only threat with nuclear weapons in this scenario.
The Japanese public is super hostile toward China plus Japan has been trying to strengthen its military for years. Who you think the SDF will be used for?
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
The Japanese public is super hostile toward China plus Japan has been trying to strengthen its military for years. Who you think the SDF will be used for?
What did you expect? China accumulating military power while Japan remained stagnant without doing absolutely anything to change this situation?

Japan is arming itself because it is unable to maintain current military capabilities in the face of a militarily ascendant China, which in their view is aggressive. More and more, China continues to accumulate military power and the balance in the region will increasingly weigh heavily on China. Japan understands this and has therefore reformulated its political/military strategy to face this new geostrategic challenge.
 

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
Will Japan, if it decides to join the US in any Taiwan scenario, be a valuable asset (for the US)? I mean I looked up its naval equipment and I was not too impressed. It only has 8 full sized destroyers with 90+ VLS that carry standard missiles. The rest 28 smaller destroyers only have 32 VLS that carry the quad packed ESSM, with 50km range. These smaller ones have to get awfully close to China's mainland to have an impact. Maybe its strength lies in its excellent submarine force? Or maybe its air force? I used panic at the thought of a combined US+Japan+Korea involvement in a Taiwan scenario. But when you look closer at their equipment it does not seem so scary. Maybe Japan's most usefulness is in its military bases, able to provide the US with a place to refuel and re-arm.
the answer is VERY. because if Japan does not led its support to the US, the US may as well not engage China over Taiwan. without Japan, the US will have no air and naval base within meaningful proximity to Taiwan.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Will Japan, if it decides to join the US in any Taiwan scenario, be a valuable asset (for the US)? I mean I looked up its naval equipment and I was not too impressed. It only has 8 full sized destroyers with 90+ VLS that carry standard missiles. The rest 28 smaller destroyers only have 32 VLS that carry the quad packed ESSM, with 50km range. These smaller ones have to get awfully close to China's mainland to have an impact. Maybe its strength lies in its excellent submarine force? Or maybe its air force? I used panic at the thought of a combined US+Japan+Korea involvement in a Taiwan scenario. But when you look closer at their equipment it does not seem so scary. Maybe Japan's most usefulness is in its military bases, able to provide the US with a place to refuel and re-arm.

Roughly speaking, China adds the equivalent of an entire Japanese Navy every 4 years.

In terms of the Air Force, it's 2-3 years.

Japan's value is that it can provide bases for the US.

But if you look to the year 2030, I think it will become obvious that China can impose an air-sea blockade on Japan, even if the US gets involved.
 

ismellcopium

Junior Member
Registered Member
Will Japan, if it decides to join the US in any Taiwan scenario, be a valuable asset (for the US)? I mean I looked up its naval equipment and I was not too impressed. It only has 8 full sized destroyers with 90+ VLS that carry standard missiles. The rest 28 smaller destroyers only have 32 VLS that carry the quad packed ESSM, with 50km range. These smaller ones have to get awfully close to China's mainland to have an impact. Maybe its strength lies in its excellent submarine force? Or maybe its air force? I used panic at the thought of a combined US+Japan+Korea involvement in a Taiwan scenario. But when you look closer at their equipment it does not seem so scary. Maybe Japan's most usefulness is in its military bases, able to provide the US with a place to refuel and re-arm.
How did you get 28.. there's only like a dozen with 32 mk41 VLS.
 
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