I was just responding to @manqiangrexue mentioning Russia, if it's irrelevant you can ignore it. Anyway, I've expanded on this topic, so mods please delete the irrelevant post.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
In the event of America deciding to attack China through Taiwan, the issue of defending it no longer comes down to a domestic security problem, but would mean a defensive total war against full scale foreign invasion. In such a war, the survival of China and elimination of invaders take precedent over anything considered "civilian" or not. This is precedent set for example by Palestinian and Ukrainian resistence against civilian occupation during a full scale invasion.
I'm not condemning Palestinians resisting a genocidal invasion by firing unguided weapons back at the infrastructure and military support systems of the ones killing them. Similarly, China has the right to fire as many unguided and cluster warhead weapons as it can make to most efficiently defend the homeland.
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This entire campaign could last months and this would give China's enemies prolonged time to ally themselves and begin to wage an economic/political and diplomatic war, without forgetting that the possibility of waging a military conflict cannot be ruled out. In any case, the Russian example in the case of China would apply, the speed with which NATO allies were ready to unify actions to punish Russia is a case study.
If you are interested:
China’s Potential Lessons from Ukraine for Conflict over Taiwan
The Peshmerga and other military groups like SDF were that army for the CJTF–OIR, culminating in the elimination of ISIS around the latest offensives like the Battle of Baghuz Fawqani.
A new level of Taiwan provocation by Japan.
It appears like the Nippon Kaigi in Japan are determined to get involved in the Taiwan issue. It is looking increasing likely that Japan is gonna become a confirmed active participant in an AR scenario. Even if the US decides not to intervene directly.
"give China's enemies prolonged time to ally themselves and begin to wage an economic/political and diplomatic war, without forgetting that the possibility of waging a military conflict cannot be ruled out."
Really? With what? They'll be busy running out of antibiotics and industrial parts because China won't supply it anyone, and good luck building modern weapon without Chinese rare earth components. China industrial power exceed the entire West, just want do those weaklings are gonna do? People today still lack a proper sense of scale and power, if nuke did not exist China can defeat the USA as easily as US defeated Japs in WWII.
If the West want to escalate it's all find by me, Alaska and Great Britain are looking real nice as locations to settle once the US has been partitioned and NATO dissolved.
I have to laugh at these triumphalist comments. That's all I have left to do.
The hard numbers give a very different picture than what the west wishes to believe, and it's only going to be worse when the shooting actually happens.
US have no more chance to win against China in 2024 than WWII Japs did against the US in 1941.
It just the hard fact of difference in industrial capacity.
I had a skim through the document and there seems to be some level of wishful thinking in it. Once western sanctions appear I believe China would immediately implement counter sanctions where it hurts - processed rare earths, industrial machinery, a wide range of consumer goods supply and manufacturing hitting western corporations (goal of having them lobby for softer sanction terms, thus delaying or derailing some key plans).
You might also see export controls happening much earlier (as in so early you wouldn't think it is connected to AR) as a response to some other provocation, but with the ultimate goal of starving and preventing western countries from building up substantial stockpiles.
Based on the Ukraine war, western sanctions will most likely come very fast, however western countries are unlikely to have a robust 'back of house' plan to deal with a shortage of various critical inputs that they can't produce themselves. By the time they have agreed on a semi working plan, AR would be over already, and throughout the period you might see conflicts mysteriously pop up elsewhere in flashpoints critical to western countries.
Based on the general straw clutchiness of the articles and what if plans that come out, I feel that the US and Nato already believe TW is a lost cause ('when' rather than 'if').
lcloo
Captain
Believe it or not, the economic war and diplomatic war has already started with USA + NATO + non-NATO allies VS Huawei when Trump came to power a few years ago and continued by Biden to latest USA + EU Vs Chinese EV.