PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
After China Marine Surveillance had their fun yesterday today is China Fishery Law Enforcement's turn:
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China Maritime Safety Administration is up tomorrow I'm guessing :)
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This is because 郭正亮 was talking on TV last night about how no one in Taiwan dared to talk about the marine surveillance ship getting within Kinmen's zone, he only knew about it because he too was following Shenyi on Weibo. DPP still trying to play this one down.

Just because you hide your head in the sand doesn’t mean that the danger isn’t there. DPP better pray that it stays at maritime patrol level and doesn’t become some sort of Causa Belli.
 

zbb

Junior Member
Registered Member
After dithering for a few days, TWCG now say they don't have a video record of what happened, because <some non-convincing reasons>.
For several days, the TWCG claimed they were holding off on the release of video recordings of the incident because of ongoing investigation. Now they say they don't have any video recordings at all despite their SOP requiring video records of all encounters by the boat cameras as well as the body cams carried by all TWCG personnel. Are we to believe that every single person on the TWCG vessel forgot their SOP and forgot to turn their cameras on?
 
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zbb

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm starting to think that this incident may not be just an accident but a deliberate provocation and escalation by extreme separatist elements of the DPP. Aside from the handling of the incident itself, the timing is also quite suspicious.

The incident happened around the same time as the US announcement of the simultaneous deployment of five aircraft carriers to the Western Pacific. Just a little over a week before, Taiwanese media was filled with high profile reports of the long-term deployment of US special forces on Kinmen. All of these unprecedented events came after last month's election victory of Lai Ching-te, who's extreme aggressive separatism was considered dangerous by even Tsai Ing-wen.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I'm starting to think that this incident may not be just an accident but a deliberate provocation and escalation by extreme separatist elements of the DPP. Aside from the handling of the incident itself, the timing is also quite suspicious.

The incident happened around the same time as the US announcement of the simultaneous deployment of five aircraft carriers to the Western Pacific. Just a little over a week before, Taiwanese media was filled with high profile reports of the long-term deployment of US special forces on Kinmen. All of these unprecedented events came after last month's election victory of Lai Ching-te, who's extreme aggressive separatism was considered dangerous by even Tsai Ing-wen.
We are entering the find out phase soon. Expect every escalation to be met with an even higher counter escalation. Mainland holds escalation dominance here.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
I'm starting to think that this incident may not be just an accident but a deliberate provocation and escalation by extreme separatist elements of the DPP. Aside from the handling of the incident itself, the timing is also quite suspicious.

The incident happened around the same time as the US announcement of the simultaneous deployment of five aircraft carriers to the Western Pacific. Just a little over a week before, Taiwanese media was filled with high profile reports of the long-term deployment of US special forces on Kinmen. All of these unprecedented events came after last month's election victory of Lai Ching-te, who's extreme aggressive separatism was considered dangerous by even Tsai Ing-wen.
I said in another thread with the announcement of so many US carriers gathering in the Asia Pacific, US vassals would get courage to try China's resolve thinking that US got their back.

What will happen instead is that China will further salami slice them
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
This is a straight up murder and cover up. They are threatening the survivor and stealing the body. This kind of provocation is not the same type as landing politicians. Something different needs to be done to give an answer to people. Certainly more than just redrawing patrol lines. This is an injustice that threatens the life of people.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
This is a straight up murder and cover up. They are threatening the survivor and stealing the body. This kind of provocation is not the same type as landing politicians. Something different needs to be done to give an answer to people. Certainly more than just redrawing patrol lines. This is an injustice that threatens the life of people.
Yeah but honestly, redrawing patrol lines so that we patrol more territory and expel them when they try to patrol it is pretty good actually. It is curtailing their control of the seas and expanding ours. We're not going to start killing their fishermen (unless they get really unruly and try to fight, which I've never heard of) as that would be counter-productive to a foe you're ultimately trying to assimilate so short of going to war to end the Taiwan question, salami slicing the nautical territory they dare patrol is about as good as it gets. It's just a question of how much of it we get.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Yeah but honestly, redrawing patrol lines so that we patrol more territory and expel them when they try to patrol it is pretty good actually. It is curtailing their control of the seas and expanding ours. We're not going to start killing their fishermen (unless they get really unruly and try to fight, which I've never heard of) as that would be counter-productive to a foe you're ultimately trying to assimilate so short of going to war to end the Taiwan question, salami slicing the nautical territory they dare patrol is about as good as it gets. It's just a question of how much of it we get.

It’s honestly insane how many opinions China has as its escalation dominance is ridiculous. If it really wants to make a point, it can capture the ship responsible for the murders and put the crew on trial in China for murder.

But that might be going a little too far for Beijing’s tastes, but the main point is that the threat of it doing so is real and will play on the minds of Taiwan patrols and their crews.

Also, the current response isn’t merely more patrols that ignore each other and do their own things.

China will now actively counter and block attempts by Taiwan to patrol those waters. Taiwan’s patrol boats can expect highly aggressive blocking manoeuvres from their mainland counterparts almost to the point of baiting them to fire the first shot. At a minimum, they can expect highly aggressive blocking actions up and including water cannons and bumping, maybe even outright rammings if they annoy the Chinese crews sufficiently.

A strong, maybe even excessive response is demanded, because China cannot and will not allow Taiwan to normalise the murder of Chinese civilians in Chinese waters. A weak response will only embolden more similar acts and may end up forcing Beijing’s hand on AR if Taiwan goes too far and Chinese public sentiment gets too inflamed.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
Yeah but honestly, redrawing patrol lines so that we patrol more territory and expel them when they try to patrol it is pretty good actually. It is curtailing their control of the seas and expanding ours. We're not going to start killing their fishermen (unless they get really unruly and try to fight, which I've never heard of) as that would be counter-productive to a foe you're ultimately trying to assimilate so short of going to war to end the Taiwan question, salami slicing the nautical territory they dare patrol is about as good as it gets. It's just a question of how much of it we get.
It is a significant gain but I don't think it is type of answer people look for. I am not asking for killing innocents, but the murderer should be held accountable. They can either be pressured into release the perpetrator for trial, or all patrols can be detained, not just blocked. They can then be traded with real perpetrator. The blocking of patrol can of course, stay.
 
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