PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

zhangjim · Feb 15, 2024

Michaelsinodef said:
Also, 5k PLA soldiers > 2 fishermen deaths btw, even if we said fishermen deaths reached 10 a year, I would still wait till 2027 or 2028.

Simply calculating from quantity? This is a civilian death in peacetime，they are not soldiers during wartime. You are indicating that in fact, an ordinary citizen is worthless. An ordinary citizen contributes taxes to the country, and then he is abandoned like garbage. The government will not take any substantive action against him, and the main responsible person will not compensate him with compensation.
It can be understood that the government strictly controls this news because it will make everyone aware that they are just disposable items.

lcloo said:
Update on the 2 deaths of Mainland Chinese fishermen.

4 Fishermen were fishing within 1 nm from the coast of Kinmen island when the ROC Coast Guard boat approach them. The fishermen tried to escape but their boat capsized. Two were rescued but the other two unfortunately drowned.

Killing two people really makes him happy.

This is an island near Xiamen, so it is easy to "cross the border". Even if there is no need for war, they can still blockade the entire coast of Xiamen.

coolgod · Feb 15, 2024

zhangjim said:
Simply calculating from quantity? This is a civilian death in peacetime，they are not soldiers during wartime. You are indicating that in fact, an ordinary citizen is worthless. An ordinary citizen contributes taxes to the country, and then he is abandoned like garbage. The government will not take any substantive action against him, and the main responsible person will not compensate him with compensation.
It can be understood that the government strictly controls this news because it will make everyone aware that they are just disposable items.

View attachment 125406
Killing two people really makes him happy.
View attachment 125407
This is an island near Xiamen, so it is easy to "cross the border". Even if there is no need for war, they can still blockade the entire coast of Xiamen.

What are you going to do about this situation? Instead of complaining on SDF anytime there is some negative sentiment in China, have you done anything about it? Have you considered accelerating the unification process, like actually pressing on the gas pedal instead of just bitching about China online? For example, what is stopping you from flying a drone to Kinmen and *harassing* the people/dept responsible for those deaths. What is stopping you from paying a small fee to dox the people responsible?

"ask not what your country can do for you--ask what you can do for your country."

Clearly most Chinese people are pissed about the two deaths, but we all know the reunification China is now tied to the demise of US hegemony in East Asia. In the grand scheme of things, the impact of these two death is not very high, considering millions have already died before them in the Chinese civil war.

zhangjim · Feb 15, 2024

coolgod said:
What are you going to do about this situation? Instead of complaining on SDF anytime there is some negative sentiment in China, have you done anything about it? Have you considered accelerating the unification process, like actually pressing on the gas pedal instead of just bitching about China online? For example, what is stopping you from flying a drone to Kinmen and *harassing* the people/dept responsible for those deaths. What is stopping you from paying a small fee to dox the people responsible?

Unfortunately, the things you mentioned happen to be what our dear government has done. They have used administrative orders and technical means to prevent the civilian use of drones to harass Kinmen Island.
They showed extraordinary imagination in blocking people's expression of dissatisfaction, and my account has been banned several times due to "illegal information".

The price of good public security is that it is almost impossible for you to obtain weapons and bring them over. I may need a few years to plan an impossible action, and there is a high probability that the government will treat everything as non-existent after an incident occurs. You need to understand that the young man in Japan spent several years planning his assassination plan, and this was based on the extreme incompetence of the Japanese police.

But your words are just sophistry. Citizens have supported a huge army and maritime police with taxes, but they have done nothing and want to make those ordinary people with limited abilities confront powerful opponents?

For governments that are arrogant and indifferent to the bottom, what they need is a new Cultural Revolution

coolgod · Feb 15, 2024

zhangjim said:
For governments that are arrogant and indifferent to the bottom, what they need is a new Cultural Revolution

Why are you calling for a revolution when you are scared of even flying a drone to harass Kinmen Island. There is no law/rule forbidding you from doing that, there was only 10 day temporary ban on drones in Xiamen in Sept due to conferences.

The price of good public security is that it is almost impossible for you to obtain weapons and bring them over. I may need a few years to plan an impossible action, and there is a high probability that the government will treat everything as non-existent after an incident occurs. You need to understand that the young man in Japan spent several years planning his assassination plan, and this was based on the extreme incompetence of the Japanese police.

Order a drone from Taobao, hop on a HSR to Xiamen and buy some fireworks there. If you are really lazy, google the people responsible and just go use those 开盒 telegrams bots found on twitter. "Several years" my ass, by that time AR would have already happened. Just admit that you love bitching about China's shortcomings while not actually doing anything to improve it.

Be the change you want to see, if the government isn't nationalist enough for you, maybe you should fight back for the honour of the ordinary Chinese instead of advocating for a cultural revolution.

They showed extraordinary imagination in blocking people's expression of dissatisfaction, and my account has been banned several times due to "illegal information".

You were probably banned on the Chinese internet for being annoying, your ideas are so trite. Instead of complaining about chinese gov online everyday, you should brush up on your 反贼 skills (ask chatgpt).

siegecrossbow · Feb 15, 2024

coolgod said:
Why are you calling for a revolution when you are scared of even flying a drone to harass Kinmen Island. There is no law/rule forbidding you from doing that, there was only 10 day temporary ban on drones in Xiamen in Sept due to conferences.

Order a drone from Taobao, hop on a HSR to Xiamen and buy some fireworks there. If you are really lazy, google the people responsible and just go use those 开盒 telegrams bots found on twitter. "Several years" my ass, by that time AR would have already happened. Just admit that you love bitching about China's shortcomings while not actually doing anything to improve it.

Be the change you want to see, if the government isn't nationalist enough for you, maybe you should fight back for the honour of the ordinary Chinese instead of advocating for a cultural revolution.

You were probably banned on the Chinese internet for being annoying, your ideas are so trite. Instead of complaining about chinese gov online everyday, you should brush up on your 反贼 skills (ask chatgpt).

These are the same kind of people who would start cheering again when Chinese maritime ship water cannons a Filipino Coastguard boat. My advice — stay off the internet. Go exercise and have good meals.

zhangjim · Feb 15, 2024

coolgod said:
Order a drone from Taobao, hop on a HSR to Xiamen and buy some fireworks there. If you are really lazy, google the people responsible and just go use those 开盒 telegrams bots found on twitter. "Several years" my ass, by that time AR would have already happened. Just admit that you love bitching about China's shortcomings while not actually doing anything to improve it.

I don't like this boring harassment. The ideal ultimate goal should be the Sarajevo incident, becoming the trigger for a full-scale war.
But now you can see the amazing "patience" of the government, they will not be driven by insignificant ants.

siegecrossbow said:
These are the same kind of people who would start cheering again when Chinese maritime ship water cannons a Filipino Coastguard boat. My advice — stay off the internet. Go exercise and have good meals.

The water cannon is really a boring trick for me. Everyone is not a fool. No one can understand why the government has not stopped the continuous provocation of a country with almost no navy or air force. If that damn ship is still there, then the problem will not be solved at all.

I am tired of this boring argument.
Discussing any decision, strategy, or situation in a forum is meaningless because it is all based on the determination of leaders and bureaucrats. Whenever these major events happen, they give me the feeling of "what exactly is going on in their minds".

This matter essentially involves various political tacit understandings and hidden rules, but it is clear that we, as insignificant individuals, have become insignificant sacrifices. When those lofty ideals and goals become vulgar transactions, it makes me feel a profound sense of disgust.
Some people may say that war consumes life and money. But the reality is that we have to exchange money for goodwill, making these arrogant "compatriots" the de facto first citizens. Now, civilians must also pay the price of their lives and endure arbitrary insults.

Don't think that the harm of "political correctness" only appears in the West.
I would like to emphasize again that no one is a fool. Those boring games will be useless in the face of increasingly aggressive provocation from opponents. The prerequisite for deceiving those with simple minds is that the opponent is willing to cooperate with you, but now they obviously prefer to give a heavy slap in the face.

drowingfish · Feb 15, 2024

zhangjim said:
I don't like this boring harassment. The ideal ultimate goal should be the Sarajevo incident, becoming the trigger for a full-scale war.
But now you can see the amazing "patience" of the government, they will not be driven by insignificant ants.

The water cannon is really a boring trick for me. Everyone is not a fool. No one can understand why the government has not stopped the continuous provocation of a country with almost no navy or air force. If that damn ship is still there, then the problem will not be solved at all.

I am tired of this boring argument.
Discussing any decision, strategy, or situation in a forum is meaningless because it is all based on the determination of leaders and bureaucrats. Whenever these major events happen, they give me the feeling of "what exactly is going on in their minds".

This matter essentially involves various political tacit understandings and hidden rules, but it is clear that we, as insignificant individuals, have become insignificant sacrifices. When those lofty ideals and goals become vulgar transactions, it makes me feel a profound sense of disgust.
Some people may say that war consumes life and money. But the reality is that we have to exchange money for goodwill, making these arrogant "compatriots" the de facto first citizens. Now, civilians must also pay the price of their lives and endure arbitrary insults.

Don't think that the harm of "political correctness" only appears in the West.
I would like to emphasize again that no one is a fool. Those boring games will be useless in the face of increasingly aggressive provocation from opponents. The prerequisite for deceiving those with simple minds is that the opponent is willing to cooperate with you, but now they obviously prefer to give a heavy slap in the face.

in the end your opinion, as is everyone else's, matter very little to the situation on the ground. what leads to success is cold, hard calculations, not childishly losing your minds over minor provocations.

Michaelsinodef · Feb 15, 2024

zhangjim said:
Simply calculating from quantity? This is a civilian death in peacetime，they are not soldiers during wartime. You are indicating that in fact, an ordinary citizen is worthless. An ordinary citizen contributes taxes to the country, and then he is abandoned like garbage. The government will not take any substantive action against him, and the main responsible person will not compensate him with compensation.
It can be understood that the government strictly controls this news because it will make everyone aware that they are just disposable items.

LOL.

Ok, so first of all, how do you know that the family of the 2 dead fishermen won't get any compensation or the likes? (Central or local government could give them, they might also receive in the future when Taiwan gets reunified, and the perpertrators pay or the Taiwanese government).

Second.
So now the 5k soldiers lives doesn't matter? In some years time, they would become normal civilians btw.

Even ignoring soldier deaths, did you not read that there would be all kinds of other costs? Such as financial? It could be going now would end up costing 1 trillion dollars while doing it in 3-4 years would bring it down to say 500 billion.

With 500 extra billion dollars, it can be invested or used in all kinds of ways (help poor people, subsidies for say medication or medical companies to research new drugs etc. etc.).

NOT to mention, potentially reducing chance of US and its allies intervening (which can also have an extra knock off effect of reducing civilian deaths), and even if they were still to intervene in 2027 or 2028, then with improved military capabilities, less civilian deaths will happen (better air defense, better offence to attack and destroy threats etc.).

SO,
Like I said earlier, the leaders of a country should be cold and calculated as decisions of say military action or money allocation etc. will impact many lives in that country, and at the end of the day accepting sacrifices or dead will be needed if it ends up benefiting more people.

zhangjim · Feb 15, 2024

drowingfish said:
in the end your opinion, as is everyone else's, matter very little to the situation on the ground. what leads to success is cold, hard calculations, not childishly losing your minds over minor provocations.

My final response is that ordinary people like me give their lives. I really care about this, because once I encounter something similar, the government and people like you don't care about me.
You will only shrug and say that this is a negligible sacrifice.
Soldiers who sacrifice themselves in war will be remembered as heroes, but in peacetime, the sacrifices of these civilians are only a part of ugly politics and are ignored.

Bellum_Romanum · Feb 15, 2024

zhangjim said:
Unfortunately, the things you mentioned happen to be what our dear government has done. They have used administrative orders and technical means to prevent the civilian use of drones to harass Kinmen Island.
They showed extraordinary imagination in blocking people's expression of dissatisfaction, and my account has been banned several times due to "illegal information".

The price of good public security is that it is almost impossible for you to obtain weapons and bring them over. I may need a few years to plan an impossible action, and there is a high probability that the government will treat everything as non-existent after an incident occurs. You need to understand that the young man in Japan spent several years planning his assassination plan, and this was based on the extreme incompetence of the Japanese police.

But your words are just sophistry. Citizens have supported a huge army and maritime police with taxes, but they have done nothing and want to make those ordinary people with limited abilities confront powerful opponents?

For governments that are arrogant and indifferent to the bottom, what they need is a new Cultural Revolution

I can feel and even sympathize for the sentiments you have expressed here and to a certain degree I feel a degree of frustration and sometimes creeping doubt on the governments desire and principles of protecting China's core redlines. But, what always gives me or snap me back to reality is the idiom that says: "NEVER TAKE HEED OR COUNSEL FROM YOUR EMOTIONS AS IT WILL ALMOST ALWAYS BRING FORTH SUFFERING AND DESTRUCTION".

I can also say that CHINA'S ENEMIES are LUCKY THAT CHINA IS NOT A WESTERN DEMOCRACY otherwise people like yourself and many others that hold the same opinion would have managed to garner vocal and influential political, economic, societal support and would effectively choose a leader like China's TRUMP. Call out and shame people that aren't as patriotic/nationalists as you are and essentially become the very country - AMERICA 2.0 BEHEMOTH - myself would probably eventually despise in the end.

PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

zhangjim

Junior Member

coolgod

Colonel

zhangjim

Junior Member

coolgod

Colonel

siegecrossbow

General

zhangjim

Junior Member

drowingfish

Junior Member

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member

zhangjim

Junior Member

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier