PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Bellum_Romanum said:

Right now, the living condition, the material condition of China has vastly improved, and is improving to the levels never been before experienced by the Chinese people. And you are willing to throw that away to satiate your frustration and perhaps passion to inflict pain and misery to the people and entity that are themselves Chinese and part of China which is Taiwan, and for what? due to a perceived and real insults? F...k that. Go ask the people in Gaza, Palestine what they think or feel with respect to their current situation and the many lives that have lost from their current conflict and years upon years of being under the yoke of their demigod neighbor I shall not name. They were and are brave; passionate to boot regarding their desire and belief to exact revenge, vengeance not just from the insult of living under an apartheid state and condition, but are they winning? If losing thousands of their women and children which means essentially losing their future progenies then what's the point in all of their "valor and bravery" when they're all dead? Those people would gladly trade their lot in life with you anytime, any day of the week 24/7, 365. They can at least live in comfort and CONFIDENCE that being Chinese in China will not get you killed, bomb into oblivion, house dispossessed, be discriminated and treated as a subhuman in your own land from another country and people with impunity.

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So far, the government is still vigorously restricting the dissemination and discussion of news.
Perhaps many people may not even notice that some unpleasant things are happening.
If I were a selfish person, I could completely ignore this matter, after all, it was just two strangers who had nothing to do with me who died.I can continue to enjoy my vacation happily, anyway, the government doesn't care about them. What's the use of caring about them?
The rebirth of this country is built on the struggles of many revolutionaries who care about the fate of others.Those who care about the fate of their country and nation have achieved victory, while those who only care about themselves have become failures in history.
We are luckier than people in other places, but imperialism continues to inflict pain on us.
China has had many periods of prosperity in history, but not every dynasty has had good reviews. Can our era truly be called excellent when measured by history? The value of "unity" was once again severely challenged after the Song Dynasty, as Americans and incompetent leadership attempted to make us suffer permanent failures like losing Vietnam.

I hope that the ultimate evaluation of those who pursue historical positioning is not "losing Taiwan". The judgment of history is cold and ruthless. Especially now, as the national friendship between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is becoming increasingly weak.We who do nothing will all become sinners of history.

I really dislike being threatened with a "poor future" by others.Some people say very well that maintaining such a massive social and military mobilization system is not about letting these bureaucrats "maintain the status quo".
From the current situation, hate instigators have gained a high level of support, and no one is willing to meet the status quo. They are unwilling to face the most important issues, but we cannot agree to their demands. This is an unavoidable contradiction.

Bellum_Romanum said:

inflict pain and misery to the people and entity that are themselves Chinese and part of China which is Taiwan

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This statement is just a hell joke when two people have just died.National friendship is a necessary pity, but it is by no means a rule that limits oneself. The Ukrainian war has already shown too much.

Calling Taiwanese people Chinese is a mega-cope. I mean it's okay to mention that rhetorically, but if you actually think like that deep inside, you have some real bias.

That's how Russia miscalculated in Ukraine. Thinking "everything will be right", "they will realize over time", "we are the same people" and other irrational self-delusions and copes.

It's okay to acknowledge history, but it's really dumb to keep living in the past. Ethnicity itself is a social construct, so why it wouldn't be changed over time especially if deliberately targeted by a masterful psy-op?

There is very little chance they will ever return to China outside of real physical/tangible action and establishment of PRC control there first.

Bellum_Romanum said:

In my opinion people like you who seems to suggest that "YOUR VOICE, and OPINION" should be given more credence and therefore legitimacy is a recipe to disaster. What have you done in your life ergo accomplishments to warrant that what you're suggesting which is essentially fighting must be given a hearing? How can your fellow Chinese people adopt your stances along with your like minded ilk when what you're saying and has expressed don't much the majority of feelings, opinions, sentiments, and facts on the ground in China.

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I think I should add some valuable content instead of venting my emotions.

I really like his viewpoint. He is someone who has been paying attention to cross-strait issues for many years.
The following is the translation of the main content:

Now is an extremely bad situation:When the strong side yields to the weak side, who is the legitimate regime? The methods used by bureaucrats to deal with conflicts are extremely rigid. Due to the lack of sufficient "tools" to deal with provocation, the other party finds that we only in "sit in battles". Therefore, they will repeatedly provoke us in the same way to gain political benefits, and then leave political pressure on us.
There are two consequences of this internal pressure accumulating to the critical point: forcing the leadership to follow public opinion and take the initiative, or continuously damaging political reputation and completely losing support.

Waiting for the right moment does not mean inaction, and there are not only two options: "endure" and "total war".
What we need to do is:
1. Develop our own strength while appropriately weakening our opponents;
2. Prepare contingency plans for various levels of events and put them into practice

But the biggest question is, why have experts done nothing about a strategy that ordinary people can think of?

The comment section raises a terrifying conjecture: the independence camp has collaborated with the pro American camp to form a community of interests surrendering to the US. Anyway, everyone unanimously agrees that the leadership should bear the greatest responsibility.

siegecrossbow said:

I think it has to do with the advent of Information Age where nothing can be kept under wraps for long even with pervasive censorship. The average citizen can go easily from “wow we are chads” for busting Myanmar scammer gangs to “wow we are virgins” for sailors getting killed by Taiwanese Coast Guard. But if, let’s say, a PLAN destroyer caused a tailing Taiwanese frigate to run aground they’ll go back to “tired of winning” mode.

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I think it's better not to think things too simple, everyone has memories. If this happens a few more times, the government's credibility will be depleted. Some people have been dissatisfied with this and calling for the cleansing of the government full of traitors.
No matter how much the military uses bluff and intimidation, it cannot save political failure.

No matter how people depict those grand plans, the lives of ordinary people are now directly threatened. Can you bring justice back to the deceased?

zhangjim said:

I think it's better not to think things too simple, everyone has memories. If this happens a few more times, the government's credibility will be depleted. Some people have been dissatisfied with this and calling for the cleansing of the government full of traitors.
No matter how much the military uses bluff and intimidation, it cannot save political failure.

No matter how people depict those grand plans, the lives of ordinary people are now directly threatened. Can you bring justice back to the deceased?

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That's politics needed for a nation (very cold and calculating).

Afterall, the central government has the data, analysises etc. on potential fallouts, risks and costs for actually doing something like iniating military reunification now versus in some years.

Example, their predictions might have say (wild guess, but you will get the overall gist) 10k PLA deaths and incurred costs/damages to the economy of 1 trillion dollars if they do it 'now.'
Versus maybe only 5k PLA deaths and only 500 billion dollars cost if they were to do it in say 2027 or 2028.

This is simplifying it way too much of course (now might have a bigger risk of US and its allies intervening leading to even greater costs, versus greater chance of them not intervening in say 2027 or 2028), but at the of the day, it's still cold and calculated about maximising gains versus losses.

Serb said:

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Calling Taiwanese people Chinese is a mega-cope. I mean it's okay to mention that rhetorically, but if you actually think like that deep inside, you have some real bias.

That's how Russia miscalculated in Ukraine. Thinking "everything will be right", "they will realize over time", "we are the same people" and other irrational self-delusions and copes.

It's okay to acknowledge history, but it's really dumb to keep living in the past. Ethnicity itself is a social construct, so why it wouldn't be changed over time especially if deliberately targeted by a masterful psy-op?

There is very little chance they will ever return to China outside of real physical/tangible action and establishment of PRC control there first.

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The point is that most Ukrainians and most Russians are really the same people. As well as Belorussians.

They have same religion, same language, same culture and a common history of centuries.

I have been sitting in a table with ukrainans, belarussians and russians and they are identical. They are indeed more similar than people from different regions in my country.

But on the other hand are totally right in the need of physical actions, even same people can fight. Same people can have different ideologies. Civil wars are pretty common across history. US civil war, Russian Civil war, Chinese civil war, Spanish civil war.
All that were fought by people with same language, religion and history. My own grandfather fought in the spanish civil war

Without physical control of the country a enemy can implement in the minds of people the most crazy ideology.

However, this process takes time. China has definitely time, and with time I mean more than a decade.

Situation with Russia and Ukraine is not comparable. In Ukraine all pro Russian political parties are forbidden, many people assassinated... This would lead to a far faster change.
In Taiwan nobody is forbidding pro Chinese political parties yet.

Also Ukraine was becoming a too powerful army, receiving so much military stuff from NATO and with the possibility of integration there.

China can allow itself patient, while Russia needed to act. And many people would say that strategically russia acted to late and should have acted in 2014 in a more decisive way.
Although other people says that in 2014 they were not ready for the sanctions and now they are. I dont know.

Anyway China can take Taiwan just by surpassing it in semiconductors.
China need Taiwan mainly for military reasons, the possibility of ocean radars in the east coast of taiwan, and avoid that a enemy force uses taiwan to attack China.
China does not need TSMC or anything. When tech in China will overcome TSMC China can simply impose sanctions to Taiwan and force them into sumission.
Taiwanese are not ukranians far right militias, they are used to a certain level of life, they are far less extremist and far less ready to die for the US

Michaelsinodef said:

This is simplifying it way too much of course (now might have a bigger risk of US and its allies intervening leading to even greater costs, versus greater chance of them not intervening in say 2027 or 2028), but at the of the day, it's still cold and calculated about maximising gains versus losses.

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Good calculation, but the premise is that there will really be a "benefit". Haha, they are even too lazy to appease the people! The government has over a billion people who can be used as a "price" to please the other side.
I can accept the sacrifice in war, which is worth it in exchange for national unity and the overthrow of imperialism. But now what they are doing is being careful to avoid the people on the island being unhappy.The deaths of two people made the other side people very happy, isn't it very cost-effective?

The essence of the Second Republic has been fully exposed, it is not a people's regime.

Santamaria said:

The point is that most Ukrainians and most Russians are really the same people. As well as Belorussians.

They have same religion, same language, same culture and a common history of centuries.

I have been sitting in a table with ukrainans, belarussians and russians and they are identical. They are indeed more similar than people from different regions in my country.

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You are mistaking history and de jure vs reality and de facto. What they should be vs what they are in reality.

There is no doubt that Ukrainians are Russian historically and Taiwanese are Chinese, but they are not anymore.

Santamaria said:

But on the other hand are totally right in the need of physical actions, even same people can fight. Same people can have different ideologies. Civil wars are pretty common across history. US civil war, Russian Civil war, Chinese civil war, Spanish civil war.
All that were fought by people with same language, religion and history. My own grandfather fought in the spanish civil war

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No, it is not only about ideology. It is literally asking them on polls about ethnicity, I posted the link.

Santamaria said:

Without physical control of the country a enemy can implement in the minds of people the most crazy ideology.

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No, because without having a presence on the ground, you can't control the education system, administration system, media, laws, etc to counter opposing ones.

Santamaria said:

However, this process takes time. China has definitely time, and with time I mean more than a decade.

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No, the process is not getting better for China, but getting worse and worse judging by all kinds of polls. Some of that is tracked in that link.

Santamaria said:

Situation with Russia and Ukraine is not comparable. In Ukraine all pro Russian political parties are forbidden, many people assassinated... This would lead to a far faster change.
In Taiwan nobody is forbidding pro Chinese political parties yet.

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There are essentially no pro-PRC parties in Taiwan, if there were they would've been forbidden.

KMT is also pro-independence, the only difference is that they want normal relations with China, whereas DPP wants provocations and conflict. And there is no pro-PRC major media, the education system is full of separatist, DPP-like ideology, etc.

Update on the 2 deaths of Mainland Chinese fishermen.

4 Fishermen were fishing within 1 nm from the coast of Kinmen island when the ROC Coast Guard boat approach them. The fishermen tried to escape but their boat capsized. Two were rescued but the other two unfortunately drowned.

zhangjim said:

Good calculation, but the premise is that there will really be a "benefit". Haha, they are even too lazy to appease the people! The government has over a billion people who can be used as a "price" to please the other side.
I can accept the sacrifice in war, which is worth it in exchange for national unity and the overthrow of imperialism. But now what they are doing is being careful to avoid the people on the island being unhappy.The deaths of two people made the other side people very happy, isn't it very cost-effective?

The essence of the Second Republic has been fully exposed, it is not a people's regime.

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Lol no, it's you that has gotten exposed.

Also, 5k PLA soldiers > 2 fishermen deaths btw, even if we said fishermen deaths reached 10 a year, I would still wait till 2027 or 2028.

Not to mention the financial costs and other costs are also far more than what you think.