PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
In the case of silo based ICBMs countries might keep empty silos. According to US theory in late Cold War these would then be used to soak up an enemy nuclear strike on the silos.

But given that most of China's ICBMs are the road mobile DF-31AG and DF-41 I agree that those numbers look fishy.
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
China has ELINT aircraft based on the Y-8. They also have the J-16D to do jamming. They have stealth aircraft like the J-20. And they have MAWS in all their aircraft. The only question is how widespread loitering munitions are in the PLAAF.
I’d think, that, when the time comes, loitering-munitions for the purposes of SEAD/DEAD, i. e., PARM (persistent anti-radiation munitions) will come to be the pre-dominate platform deployed in the early stages of an air-offensive.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
Supposedly further proof that RORO ships are mobilizing. 44k ton RORO ferry 中华复兴号 from Bohai Ferry Company have just started her engines and sailing out of Shantou harbor in Guangdong and is reporting to be headed for Xiamen, she will reach Xiamen by noon.

Anyone remember the pelosi thing and the roro ships being moved.

The DOD released some interesting things during that time period. Simulations of moving an entire army group and operations of roros with little to zero port infrastructure alongside at-sea disembarkation.

Large-Volume Lift Exercise. From mid-July to mid-August, the PLA conducted large amphibious lift exercises along China’s Northern and Southern coast, using 12 civilian ships including eight large RORO ferries. The lift capacity, number of vessels stops, and the number of participating ground vehicles suggest this training could have simulated the movement of up to a full group army for the first time.
In mid-August 2022, a single RORO supported the transport of roughly 40 vehicles from a portion of Dongshan Port that had little cargo handling infrastructure, no pier-side RORO ramp, and no tugboat support. This training suggests the PLA seeks the capability to operate from any intact pier, even ones without offloading infrastructure.
From August 31st to September 2nd, 2022, … ROROs in both exercise area off-loaded forces at sea, suggesting stern ramp modifications allowing for at-sea disembarkation are becoming more commonplace within the RORO fleet. One combined-arms amphibious brigade and one combined-armed amphibious battalion were believed to have been delivered as part of this exercise.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
You kind of touched on something here(for me)...when you brought up The Battle Of Hostomel Airport.

Did anyone find it a funny coincidence over the summer that a mock Air Assault(cough...photo opp demo) on Taoyuan International Airport was performed.

I don't know what the exact scenario details were for the mock assault on the Taoyuan Airport but from the short footage that was released , the mock assault featured a rapid air assault insertion of "PLA RED FORCES" supported by escorting Attack Helicopters providing air cover. Basically in the same vain the Russian assault on Hostomel Airport was reportedly said to have played out.

The similarities pretty much ended there...From what I understand the Russian assault on Hostomel Airport was basically a seize and hold operation. A rapid air assault Insertion by helicopter escorted by attack/gunship helicopters in multiple waves. Rumor has it that later additional VDV troops on IL76s were to be transport as reinforcement in further waves but they were aborted...( Yes I skip some things but that's it in a nutshell )

The Taoyuan Airport is about 5-10+ km in some places from the coast/Strait , so I could envision a possible scenario where once Air/Sea Control had been achieved/established by the PLAAF/PLAN , It's possible that the PLA could perform a similar operation that required a rapid air assault to capture and hold the Taoyuan Airport...

"An air insertion of about 300+ PLAAF/PLANM Heliborne troops involving a mix of about 30+ assault helicopter transports escorted by attack helicopters taking off from several Type 075s attached to a PLAN Task Group stationed several kms off the coast. With GL2s onsite providing fire support , WZ10s ECM/EW support"...Its not out of the realm of possibilities.

The Russian battleplan wasn't that bad , poor intelligence(underestimating your enemy) and poor execution(failure to secure air supremacy) is what bit them in the arse.

During the US invasion of Panama ("Just Cause") , US forces seized the Rio Hato Airport. On the day of the operation the Americans ran into some issues too. Two F117s would miss their marks(targets) go figure , NORIEGA would be tipped off about the pending invasion and the PDF Garrison guarding the airport would be put on full alert. Unknown to the Americans two Ranger Units would paradrop low onto the airfield while taking heavy fire. Lucky the Americans once on the ground they were able overtake the PDF , Of course the two AC130s , two AH64s and two M/AH6s flying overhead had nothing to with it...L0L

The Battle of Crete is a very interesting case , in my opinion.

The Battleplan was pretty solid (from the German standpoint) , the operation would start with a intense air bombardment of Island followed by the landing of about "20,000+" paratroopers(by glider/air transports) to seize about 6/7 airfields ports in phases(waves).

The commentary criticism(flak) of the mission tends to squarely focus on the two problems that arose (before the operation and during the first phase/wave). 0ne German Intelligence estimated that the British had a Garrison of about 5,000 troops on the Island with "moderate defenses" , but were wrong. The British had incepted and broken German codes losing "element of surprise". The British quickly reinforced their Garrison to about "40,000+" strong and set up heavy defenses exactly where the Germans were to land/paradrop...that's why secured lines and good intelligence gathering capabilities are essential to any operation.

Two , the Germans suffered major equipment failures and made the tactical error to drop a large majority of their paratroopers unarmed separated from all their weapons(dropped in separate canisters). Resulting in high casualties and further delays...had the Germans practiced a dry run they might have caught these two fatal flaws head of time , practice does sometimes make perfect.

Despite all of these early blunders the Germans still managed to take the island from a well defended enemy who knew they were coming and outnumbered them 2-1.

First I am a Big advocate(fan) for the use of Airborne Forces and for their continued expansion(modernization)/indoctrination into the PLA's overall war planning.

I would say Airborne/Air Assault is a recent development in warfare ( meaning man's first method of warfare was conducted on land first , sea next ...air the 20th century) So it's a recent development for the PLA.

The PLA Airborne/Air Assault Forces introduces a third dimension to the battlefield. It's the third piece to a 3D Chess Board(land/sea/air).

If coastal/beach defensives can't be taken out in a timely manner...Why allow the operation to stall , Why force the issue , try to land onto those beaches , when the beaches themselves can be bypassed all together by Air Insertion further inland if applicable?..

Insertion by air allows the PLA to access areas Fast/Quickly that would be inaccessible to other PLA sea/grounds units. It allows PLA to go over the top("vertical") of the enemy. This is the exact reason why many top tier armies of the world continue to deploy them. The benefits out weight the risks. But Risk are generally High.

Airborne Forces are an "elite" force ("special reserve") that should be used during special circumstances to take very specific military objectives. So Yes Just because you have the capability doesn't necessarily mean it's the right tool/action. Planning any airborne/air assault is no Easy Task By No Means. A certain level(degree) of risk/failure Is involved but that's with any military operation. To conduct a successful Airborne/Air Assault it takes Ingenuity , GOOD INTELLIGENCE , Training(constantly)/Logistics , Air Control/Support and Timing. It requires military planners to be Bold("creative") in every aspect. So PLA military Planners Must Not Be Discourage to undertake such operations should a optimal opportunity present itself.

When the decision is made , I Do believe the PLA/PLAAF Airborne Corps Will Play a Key Role in the retaking of the Island Of Taiwan in some form or another. Whether its in the opening hours or middle stages of the campaign performing Heliborne drops to seize/secure(hold) choke points or airbridges(airfields). Airborne landings to reinforce and resupply. Or just Misdirection , paradrops behind enemy to cause confusion and chaos. The PLAAF Airborne Corps will Play A Role.
When considering airborne landings of a few hundred men, you should also consider the possibility of local agents joining them. The MSS probably has more than a few hundred spies on the island, in particular in the military. In addition to that there are millions of mainland tourists coming every year pre pandemic. In anticipation of a war, you could easily send in a few hundred people as tourists that then hide somewhere.

We're not talking about attacking a foreign state. This is a civil war. Of course China also needs to be ready for sabotage and terrorist acts by separatists and ROC agents.
 

grulle

Junior Member
Registered Member
I have thought of another problem faced by China should the Taiwan conflict erupt. SHOULD China preemptively strike US bases in Korea, Japan, and the Philippines? if China DOESN'T strike US bases, then there is a possibility that the US will not join the war. but the downside is that should war erupt, US forces will be at maximum strength should the US decide to join. however, if China DOES attack US bases, then the US will definitely join the war. so this is the dilemma faced by China. should China take a chance and bet that the US doesn't join the war, thereby refraining from attacking US bases in Asia.
 

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
I have thought of another problem faced by China should the Taiwan conflict erupt. SHOULD China preemptively strike US bases in Korea, Japan, and the Philippines? if China DOESN'T strike US bases, then there is a possibility that the US will not join the war. but the downside is that should war erupt, US forces will be at maximum strength should the US decide to join. however, if China DOES attack US bases, then the US will definitely join the war. so this is the dilemma faced by China. should China take a chance and bet that the US doesn't join the war, thereby refraining from attacking US bases in Asia.
There is no dilemma. US intervention is absolutely guaranteed so your entire line of thinking is wrong. They have made that clear both publicly to the global community and privately to Chinese counterparts. Strategic ambiguity was always just a fig leaf, and they openly did away with it as of a few years ago.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
There is no dilemma. US intervention is absolutely guaranteed so your entire line of thinking is wrong. They have made that clear both publicly to the global community and privately to Chinese counterparts. Strategic ambiguity was always just a fig leaf, and they openly did away with it as of a few years ago.
When did China publically state that?
 
Last edited:

montyp165

Senior Member
Only Biden has said US will intervene. The white house walked back his comments each time. I don't know guys, this is a pretty big issue lol.
There's always certain tell-tale signs if an immediate military action is planned, one only needs to look at what the immediate leadups to military actions against Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan were as contemporary working examples.
 
Top