That explains Tsai's recent comments on the status quo.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
???
Where are you getting this?
Because Taiwan's main benefactor has been the USA, modern SAMs is exactly what they lack.
Patriot launcher is mobile, but the entire complex is not and requires an hour to get ready to fire.
The next most numerous missile is iHAWK which is from the 70's, not exactly modern even by military standards
The domestic TK-series largely operates like Patriot.
The only credible mobile SAM would be TC-2 SAM version, but it is not long ranged (reportedly only 15 Km).
Avenger/Stinger is only useful for drones and low flying helicopters. Likely a drone with a thermal imager would have the advantage anyway.
Likely the main Patriot and TK batteries would be expended trying to shoot down ballistic and cruise missiles. That leaves something like the HAWK trying to shoot down planes with 20-50y improved technology.
You seem to forget that the entire island is in range of Mainland based Rocket Artillery, SAMs is gonna get wiped out pretty quickly.
Well tbh they have really good air defense relative to their peers. It just doesn't matter much, because it is tremendously difficult for an organization to directly compete with even major countries in something that takes coordinated development and maintenence, like air power.
The danger ROC can prove isn't mainly going to be through a handful of (admittedly impressive) air defenses. It's going to be in if they eventually have a strong fighting will, dig in amongst civilian human shields, and have large numbers of ground fighters that can't be easily tracked by the government.
In practice, militant action is really not an option for them either way. ROC fighters have impressively large forces and some of the best weapon types when it comes to armed groups, but none of that matters because they're located 200 kms from Mainland China. Imagine how fast Hezbollah would get smoked if they were located on an island with nowhere to run 200 kms from Mainland USA.
That's why they would rather play politics and try to use the control they already have as leverage vs the central government to keep surviving.
That's a good point. China wouldn't even need to waste ballistic or cruise missiles on Taiwan. Those can all be used on imperial and vassal targets instead.
i thought the HAWKs are given away to ukraine?
overall i think Taiwan's anti air capability is not as good as suggested on paper. small island with a bunch of semi-mobile launchers, much easier to destroy than S-300s
I'm going to assume you meant to direct this at the OP.
That being said, not the entire island is reachable by MLRS. The regular unguided/guided rockets only have range up to 160Km. Otherwise you are looking at Tactical BM.
Relative to who? The Philippines? The number of population?
I don't consider their air defense to be particularly strong relative to the threat they face.
Of course it would be impossible to compare a small island that is basically one of the smallest provinces of China to all of China, but that is what it is.
Patriot is their strongest air defense missile by range, they only have a few hundred of these.
I am not saying to dismiss their air defenses altogether, but certainly it is not a particularly strong deterrant.
I thought some of the older HAWKs in reserve were given away, but I did see somewhere just now that HAWK is supposed to retire this year, so maybe it's done.
Relative to other non state armed actors.
In terms of them actually going kinetic with the PLA, yes, the air defenses can be all but disregarded.