PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Bellum_Romanum

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Anyone here familiar or have read the works of Professor Sarah Paine of Naval War College? Here's a snippet of her opinion/take on what seems to be a strong implication regarding Xi Jinping’s intent of Taiwan reunification by force.

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The rest of her opinion/assessment will be posted tomorrow.

@BoraTas , @plawolf , @ansy1968 , @Coalescence , @zhangjim , @Overbom , @ACuriousPLAFan , @OTCDebunker, @Phead128, @Minm , @solarz , @Eventine , @ChongqingHotPot92 ,@AssassinsMace
 

BoraTas

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Anyone here familiar or have read the works of Professor Sarah Paine of Naval War College? Here's a snippet of her opinion/take on what seems to be a strong implication regarding Xi Jinping’s intent of Taiwan reunification by force.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The rest of her opinion/assessment will be posted tomorrow.

@BoraTas , @plawolf , @ansy1968 , @Coalescence , @zhangjim , @Overbom , @ACuriousPLAFan , @OTCDebunker, @Phead128, @Minm , @solarz , @Eventine , @ChongqingHotPot92 ,@AssassinsMace

Another wordcel...

Three "red flags":

1- She literally talks about the social credit system (normally an instant opinion discarded reason for me but I continued for the sake of commenting)

2- Usual end of history arguments... Liberals for years argued that the "CCP's" monopoly on power was unsustainable because well-off people would demand political power. This ties to their assumption of Western Liberal Democracy as the final form of governance. The problem with this argument is that the relationship between money and power is very cultural and China has been quite unique in this regard. At no point in Chinese history money granted someone control over the state. The average Chinese person (you know, who actually lives in China) would laugh at that. Social structures simply don't allow that to happen. The same goes for Westernization too. There is no reason for China to Westernize so "CCP" doesn't need to distract or use repression.

3- China's position on Taiwan has been very consistent over decades. If she doesn't know even this, she is wholly unqualified.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Another wordcel...

Three "red flags":

1- She literally talks about the social credit system (normally an instant opinion discarded reason for me but I continued for the sake of commenting)

2- Usual end of history arguments... Liberals for years argued that the "CCP's" monopoly on power was unsustainable because well-off people would demand political power. This ties to their assumption of Western Liberal Democracy as the final form of governance. The problem with this argument is that the relationship between money and power is very cultural and China has been quite unique in this regard. At no point in Chinese history money granted someone control over the state. The average Chinese person (you know, who actually lives in China) would laugh at that. Social structures simply don't allow that to happen. The same goes for Westernization too. There is no reason for China to Westernize so "CCP" doesn't need to distract or use repression.

3- China's position on Taiwan has been very consistent over decades. If she doesn't know even this, she is wholly unqualified.
Which is why I wanted to know if the people I tagged on my post were able to, or had the chance to read her prior academic works i.e. published books. I have noticed as of late ever since the war in Ukraine started, a lot of these western academics, and so-called experts have become unhinged and has forfeited their intellectual integrity that's clouded their objectivity and insights, that has permeated the entire geopolitical discussion in a manichean fashion. It's utterly disappointing, and makes me reconsider just how objective and honest or even factual these so-called experts really were when it comes to issues, countries, and figures that they may have persobal disdained for.
 

SinoAmericanCW

New Member
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Which is why I wanted to know if the people I tagged on my post were able to, or had the chance to read her prior academic works i.e. published books. I have noticed as of late ever since the war in Ukraine started, a lot of these western academics, and so-called experts have become unhinged and has forfeited their intellectual integrity that's clouded their objectivity and insights, that has permeated the entire geopolitical discussion in a manichean fashion. It's utterly disappointing, and makes me reconsider just how objective and honest or even factual these so-called experts really were when it comes to issues, countries, and figures that they may have persobal disdained for.
Meh.

In another
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, she claims that the belligerents during WWI didn't "practice grand strategy". As an example, she mentions that, given that Britain's strength was in the maritime domain, it was a mistake for London to create a large field army... One is left to wonder exactly how Britain could have contributed to what was essentially a continental conflict in the absence of such a field army... Or whether France would have survived on its own, absent active British participation.
 

aqh

Junior Member
Registered Member
Does anyone know anything about the PLAs airborne capacity?

The reason I ask is that I estimate that it will at most take a month from standoff distances for the PLA to destroy all of Taiwans tanks and artillery thus reducing them entirely into an infantry force. They can do this with 24/7 ISR coverage and non stop cueing of PGMSs (PHL16, Loitering drones, JDAM equivs etc) until the majority of Taiwan's vehicles are destroyed. The main issue for the PLA at that point would be ROC infantry (who won't be survivable on the fields as they have lost all heavy equipment) and will be forced back to cities. The PLA can bypass all cities other than Taipei where they will be forced into house to house combat. Obviously with air dominance, the PLA should be able to land airborne forces to flank the ROC in Taipei so does anyone have any idea of how much forces the PLA can drop into Taipei? Air dropping forces would massively help with conquering Taipei.
 

OTCDebunker

New Member
Registered Member
Does anyone know anything about the PLAs airborne capacity?

The reason I ask is that I estimate that it will at most take a month from standoff distances for the PLA to destroy all of Taiwans tanks and artillery thus reducing them entirely into an infantry force. They can do this with 24/7 ISR coverage and non stop cueing of PGMSs (PHL16, Loitering drones, JDAM equivs etc) until the majority of Taiwan's vehicles are destroyed. The main issue for the PLA at that point would be ROC infantry (who won't be survivable on the fields as they have lost all heavy equipment) and will be forced back to cities. The PLA can bypass all cities other than Taipei where they will be forced into house to house combat. Obviously with air dominance, the PLA should be able to land airborne forces to flank the ROC in Taipei so does anyone have any idea of how much forces the PLA can drop into Taipei? Air dropping forces would massively help with conquering Taipei.
I presume you mean air assault actually.

Because airborne refers specifically to paratroopers jumping out of fixed wing aircraft and then a parachute opens.

Air assault means they ride in helicopters and either fast rope or simply hot jump off the helicopter while it's hovering a few feet off the ground so as to not power down it's engines too much left and emergency evasive maneuvering is needed.

Honestly, for urban operations either airborne nor air assault is truly a good idea.

Plenty of reasons but for starters the whole point of airborne and air assault is to flank or get to the rear of an enemy unit/formation. Then they will attack and either simultaneously or shortly thereafter your main Frontline troops will engage the front of the enemy.

If all goes well your air guys either surprised the enemy so much they either panic and surrender or simply get massacred. Alternatively, your air guys are able to disrupt or outright stop the enemy supply lines for the main Frontline fight. At which point the Frontline guys win because your ur enemy rans out of ammo or whatever.

But note that this is basically useless and pointless in the scenario you described above.

Taipei will be easily and quickly surrounded.

Nothing in or out.

So the enemy is already 'flanked' or attacked from the rear if you will ..they're attacked from EVERYWHERE technically. And those stupid white worshipping whores for the west WILL NOT be able to depend on even the most MINUTE of supplies coming in from the white slavemasters.

Taipei is easy to cut off from the outside world.

In such a case using either airborne or air assault is actually a bad idea. Because infantry who are surrounded in urban environments can still shoot down or damage both fixed wing and helicopters.

In fact urban environments are one of the easiest places for a disadvantaged enemy to shoot down aircraft even if the other side is vastly superior to the side that's holed up in the city.

See the Black Hawk Down incident (epic fails really) for reference.

But ya just go to Google Earth and scan over Taipei...now realize that any window, any roof, any door, any whatever can have a Taiwanese slave uncle chan pop up, shoot a missile or other anti air munition at a helicopter, and the disappear.

Now you've lost a whole squad or worse even. Not to mention the aircraft and crew, and whatever propaganda victory the west gains from the pictures and videos about to be spread to the internet.

And all for nothing essentially, because whatever mission you wanted those air guys to accomplish...we'll you could just do it by slowly advancing with mechanized infantry, armor supported by infantry, air support, and precision artillery.

Just slowly but aggressively battle it out in the streets using assets that you know the uncle chans have very little counters for.

Aircraft are very vulnerable due to the nature of not being able to defy the universal force.of gravity with excessively heavy armor...tanks and armored vehicles on the other hand can take much bigger beatings and can also be covered in their blindspots and weaknesses from infantry, drones, and air recon.

We don't need to capture an HVT or something where only a fast moving air infantry would be needed. We just need to beat them up the old fashioned way.

Lastly, 'normal' airborne troops cannot maneuver or control their descend. The parachutes they use aren't capable of doing that. Those parachutes can only open up and that's it. You need the fancy and expensive rectangular shaped parachutes for that...and you also need very significant height as well. Otherwise by the time you can even control where you descent you're basically on the ground already.

Note that only special forces in the military get that type of training, equipment issued, and missions assigned to them..

So if you wanted to use paratroopers on uncle chan slaves kooked up in God knows which fucking building their hiding in inside of Taipei you would just be asking for a diaster since your paratroopers could potentially get stuck on power lines, hit a building during their descent (you are still falling fast enough to seriously fuck you up if this happens to you btw), land on a roof and be cut off from everyone else, etc.

So no, airborne and air assault should not even be considered unless something seriously changed and we now need them for whatever reason.
 

SinoAmericanCW

New Member
Registered Member
The reason I ask is that I estimate that it will at most take a month from standoff distances for the PLA to destroy all of Taiwans tanks and artillery thus reducing them entirely into an infantry force. They can do this with 24/7 ISR coverage and non stop cueing of PGMSs (PHL16, Loitering drones, JDAM equivs etc) until the majority of Taiwan's vehicles are destroyed.
In the absence of U.S. intervention, maybe.

But I don't find the prospect of a Taiwan campaign without U.S. intervention to be realistic.

We should all assume that, for China, a Taiwan contingency means general war against the U.S.-led coalition.
 

Heliox

Junior Member
Registered Member
Does anyone know anything about the PLAs airborne capacity?

The reason I ask is that I estimate that it will at most take a month from standoff distances for the PLA to destroy all of Taiwans tanks and artillery thus reducing them entirely into an infantry force. They can do this with 24/7 ISR coverage and non stop cueing of PGMSs (PHL16, Loitering drones, JDAM equivs etc) until the majority of Taiwan's vehicles are destroyed. The main issue for the PLA at that point would be ROC infantry (who won't be survivable on the fields as they have lost all heavy equipment) and will be forced back to cities. The PLA can bypass all cities other than Taipei where they will be forced into house to house combat. Obviously with air dominance, the PLA should be able to land airborne forces to flank the ROC in Taipei so does anyone have any idea of how much forces the PLA can drop into Taipei? Air dropping forces would massively help with conquering Taipei.

Your likely source of heliborne air assault into Taiwan is off your LHDs. That should indicate to you the extent of the capacity available. You could possibly stage out of the Mainland but the distances involved means your sortie rates are abysmal - so either you have tons of helos or you have super long intervals for wave 2/3/4/etc.

The biggest challenge with Air Assault is logistics.
How do you intend to resupply these inserted elements?

Because you are inserting them, as is their intended use, behind lines - Do you have enough of a main offensive, in the first place, to punch through to these guys to relief and resupply? That is coming from ... Amphib? So that is a secondary constraint independent of your airlift capabilities.

And dropping airmobile forces INTO Taipei ... Hell No.
 

zhangjim

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Anyone here familiar or have read the works of Professor Sarah Paine of Naval War College? Here's a snippet of her opinion/take on what seems to be a strong implication regarding Xi Jinping’s intent of Taiwan reunification by force.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The rest of her opinion/assessment will be posted tomorrow.
I can only evaluate the content in the title section.
She's just repeating the past misjudgments about China.
Of course, this viewpoint is not unfounded. I have discussed with others about the situation in the early 21st century, when both the government and the people had a dangerous tendency to completely abandon the red flag.
The government seems to want to build a model of comprehensive cooperation and power sharing with capitalists, but the representatives of capitalists show excessive arrogance and a desire for power. Put it more clearly: they want to establish a regime controlled by capital like the United States and kick out the CPC.
This makes the government aware of the errors in political lines and the danger of capitalists. But they cannot return to the revolutionary path of the past, which makes the direction of the future still a topic deliberately avoided.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Does anyone know anything about the PLAs airborne capacity?

The reason I ask is that I estimate that it will at most take a month from standoff distances for the PLA to destroy all of Taiwans tanks and artillery thus reducing them entirely into an infantry force. They can do this with 24/7 ISR coverage and non stop cueing of PGMSs (PHL16, Loitering drones, JDAM equivs etc) until the majority of Taiwan's vehicles are destroyed. The main issue for the PLA at that point would be ROC infantry (who won't be survivable on the fields as they have lost all heavy equipment) and will be forced back to cities. The PLA can bypass all cities other than Taipei where they will be forced into house to house combat. Obviously with air dominance, the PLA should be able to land airborne forces to flank the ROC in Taipei so does anyone have any idea of how much forces the PLA can drop into Taipei? Air dropping forces would massively help with conquering Taipei.
That would be sending your men to a literal meat grinder.

Battle of Crete, Operation Market Garden and the most-recent Battle of Hostomel Airport are perfect examples on how NOT to do airborne assaults. What you have just described is similar to the listed examples.
 
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