PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

grulle said:

I have thought of another problem faced by China should the Taiwan conflict erupt. SHOULD China preemptively strike US bases in Korea, Japan, and the Philippines? if China DOESN'T strike US bases, then there is a possibility that the US will not join the war. but the downside is that should war erupt, US forces will be at maximum strength should the US decide to join. however, if China DOES attack US bases, then the US will definitely join the war. so this is the dilemma faced by China. should China take a chance and bet that the US doesn't join the war, thereby refraining from attacking US bases in Asia.

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Yes, for two reasons:

First, it is virtually certain that the U.S. and, at least, Japan and Australia would join the war.

Second, in the infinitesimal chance that the war remains contained to only China/Taiwan, the international isolation of China would be so comprehensive that China might as well attack to establish an hegemonic trade and resource bloc in East Asia.

Much like Austria-Hungary/Serbia portended systemic war, so does China/Taiwan.

SinoAmericanCW said:

Yes, for two reasons:

First, it is virtually certain that the U.S. and, at least, Japan and Australia would join the war.

Second, in the infinitesimal chance that the war remains contained to only China/Taiwan, the international isolation of China would be so comprehensive that China might as well attack to establish an hegemonic trade and resource bloc in East Asia.

Much like Austria-Hungary/Serbia portended systemic war, so does China/Taiwan.

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To elaborate on that point, if the US expects to be able to mass forces for a mass attack a la Iraq, the PLA will take action like in 1962 against India in that situation, and China has reached the point where it has the industrial firepower to take down AUKUS+SK+Japan forces in combination even before adding NK and Russia into the equation. This will become more apparent approaching 2025 and beyond, which why I fully expect this to be a Pacific War 2.0 and nothing less.

SinoAmericanCW said:

Yes, for two reasons:

First, it is virtually certain that the U.S. and, at least, Japan and Australia would join the war.

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Not certain at all. They sometimes threaten to attack, but they haven't done it despite China being much weaker in the past.

SinoAmericanCW said:

Second, in the infinitesimal chance that the war remains contained to only China/Taiwan, the international isolation of China would be so comprehensive that China might as well attack to establish an hegemonic trade and resource bloc in East Asia.

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Lol who would afford to "internationally isolate" China? China IS the global driver of growth, largest producer and largest economy. Besides that, with words from China, any country going to war with China would also be cut off from most of the global resource rich areas.

If the west tried leaving China, they would end up in the same position as Japan prior to ww2: forced to start a direct war due to crippling economic blockade.

America talks up a big game, but they've never invaded anything even 1/10th as powerful as China. Perhaps, the most powerful foe they've ever faced was ww2 Japan and the PVA in Korea. None of that is going to compare to navally invading the dominant world economy with 4x their population and likely nearly 4x the productivity as well.

Deterrence through force is greatly underrated when it comes to US.

SinoAmericanCW said:

Yes, for two reasons:

First, it is virtually certain that the U.S. and, at least, Japan and Australia would join the war.

Second, in the infinitesimal chance that the war remains contained to only China/Taiwan, the international isolation of China would be so comprehensive that China might as well attack to establish an hegemonic trade and resource bloc in East Asia.

Much like Austria-Hungary/Serbia portended systemic war, so does China/Taiwan.

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As a historical observation the last 30 years has looked much like the lead up to ww1 in the 1880s to 1910s.

English speaking hegemony expands a global empire but finds itself stretched out due to multiple competing interests.

They only have experience with small colonial wars putting down bronze age tribes with machine guns, yet their hubris believes that this extends to other sophisticated opponents.

They think they have a regional power with historical animus towards the offender on their side but that regional power turns out weaker than expected.

They demonize the other side with propaganda about atrocities and religious persecution.

I am, of course, only talking about British Empire and Imperial Germany.

FairAndUnbiased said:

As a historical observation the last 30 years has looked much like the lead up to ww1 in the 1880s to 1910s.

English speaking hegemony expands a global empire but finds itself stretched out due to multiple competing interests.

They only have experience with small colonial wars putting down bronze age tribes with machine guns, yet their hubris believes that this extends to other sophisticated opponents.

They think they have a regional power with historical animus towards the offender on their side but that regional power turns out weaker than expected.

They demonize the other side with propaganda about atrocities and religious persecution.

I am, of course, only talking about British Empire and Imperial Germany.

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Who would be Imperial Germany in this case. Only China kinda qualifies, but there is no sign of escalation from China yet.

TK3600 said:

Who would be Imperial Germany in this case. Only China kinda qualifies, but there is no sign of escalation from China yet.

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More like the breakout of WW2.

Japan(US) underwent rapid expansion in the past decades, bringing most of a continent under it's heel, yet now under threat of losing much of it due to an attritional war with China(Middle East & Ukraine).

Whether real or perceived, the government in Japan(US) believes the way to reverse their fortunes is to pick a fight with their rival across the Pacific(China), despite many policymakers telling them it's a bad idea.

The numbers aren't in their favor, but believing their superior national character can carry them, they still began extreme provocation against the larger party, including possibly military attack.

Biscuits said:

More like the breakout of WW2.

Japan(US) underwent rapid expansion in the past decades, bringing most of a continent under it's heel, yet now under threat of losing much of it due to an attritional war with China(Middle East & Ukraine).

Whether real or perceived, the government in Japan(US) believes the way to reverse their fortunes is to pick a fight with their rival across the Pacific(China), despite many policymakers telling them it's a bad idea.

The numbers aren't in their favor, but believing their superior national character can carry them, they still began extreme provocation against the larger party, including possibly military attack.

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So you think US is pulling a reverse Pearl Harbor on China?

TK3600 said:

So you think US is pulling a reverse Pearl Harbor on China?

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In the age of satellites it's kinda impossible. There is still a real risk of American attack, but nothing is set in stone.

During the 1979-1990 conflicts with Vietnam, the provinces of Guangxi and Yunnan bore the majority of the financial and logistical burden of the war effort. Provincial governments were tasked with preparing infrastructure and mobilizing the locals to move men and supplies, while also being subject to high recruitment quotas and strict rationing. This gave the rest of the country the resources and political space to focus on economic reform, but stunted the development of the Southwest - an already relatively poor region.

With regards to a Taiwan or a general WestPac Contingency, how would the gargantuan task of providing for the war effort be carried out? Should we expect the provincial governments of the coast to shoulder most of the recruitment and logistical burdens in a decentralized fashion, much like the Southwest had? Or will the efforts be more evenly distributed across the country, and centrally managed?

montyp165 said:

To elaborate on that point, if the US expects to be able to mass forces for a mass attack a la Iraq, the PLA will take action like in 1962 against India in that situation, and China has reached the point where it has the industrial firepower to take down AUKUS+SK+Japan forces in combination even before adding NK and Russia into the equation. This will become more apparent approaching 2025 and beyond, which why I fully expect this to be a Pacific War 2.0 and nothing less.

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A full FULL Pacific War 2.0 you mean? As in all the way to California/west Coast? What makes you think it'll go that far?

Also, what is so special about 2025? We are almost done with 2023 so really what's going to happen in the next 1 year that'll make it apparent that America will be facing a threat of invasion of their homeland?