PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

asif iqbal said:

having carrier battle groups is fair enough but they also need "friendly" ports to visit, resupply and re-fresh

I think Gwader is a perfectly located naval port from where China can project power into the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea and will give it easy reach to the West

a few years ago a Chinese naval escort force of Type 54A frigate, Type 05B Destoyer and a replenishment ship visited Karachi and rasied many eyebrows

I hope in the future Chinese naval vessals make more frequent visits to eventually station some of its fleet overseas, a SSBN stationed at Gwader would send shock waves around the region

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The problem with a PLAN base in Pakistan is Pakistan.

It is too much of a geopolitical hot potato right now. It will exactly raise too much (Indian) eye brows.

and the "Grand Strategy" of china right now is button-down and hum-along.

10 more years of 8 % growth and its economy will be doubled again. that means (ultra-conservatively) 2x the government revenue. that means at least 2x the PLAN budget.

a low level prescence in somewhere like a Seyechelle or even Somaliland would be a better choice for right now.

The real external support from china, to pakistani external security from the its eastern side, is Chinese airforce bases in Xinjiang, Tibet and Yunnan.

PLAN also need bases to base its long range patrol aircraft and resupply nodes.

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for that china should change his policy of non-interference and non-military base in foreign country.

PLAN is definitely sizing itself for 6 carriers though. at least 3 that I can see in next 15 years.

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Yep. i remember a member from a military think thank saying PLAN need a least 3 carrier.

escobar said:

for that china should change his policy of non-interference and non-military base in foreign country.
Yep. i remember a member from a military think thank saying PLAN need a least 3 carrier.

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China will think about how to establish a permanent naval presence to guard her Indian Ocean SLoC to the Gulf and Africa, possibly with the help of Pakistan's navy, because they do consider the Indian navy a possible threat.
3 carriers would make 2 permanently operational while their possible opponents in the neighbourhood each have 2 ships of this capability with usually only 1 being available at a time. 3 just means higher returns and most naval armament calculates 60-66% availability of ships.

Kurt said:

China will think about how to establish a permanent naval presence to guard her Indian Ocean SLoC to the Gulf and Africa, possibly with the help of Pakistan's navy, because they do consider the Indian navy a possible threat.

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Sure china need base there to protect SLOC. But frankly in don't know how they should present it without raising alarm
all over the world.

3 carriers would make 2 permanently operational while their possible opponents in the neighbourhood each have 2 ships of this capability with usually only 1 being available at a time. 3 just means higher returns and most naval armament calculates 60-66% availability of ships.

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it should be 6 carriers:
-2 deployed
-2 surge ready
-2 in maintenance

if China has presence on overseas naval bases and if those countrys use also Chinese built ships then integration and communication between the 2 respective navys will also be enhanced, they can go on joint patrols and maybe even join in on a task force providing valuable training experience for both participating navys

for exmaple PN is now almost Chinese equipped and looks like more of it is shifting towards Chinese built vessals

PN has Chinese built

4 F22P frigates
we should add another 4 more advanced Chinese frigates (F23Ps?)
2+2 Fast Attack Crafts (PNS Azmat and PNS Dahshat)
Z9C helicopters
4 ZDK-03 AWACS for naval role
naval JF17 Thunder

PN can easily send 1-2 F22P/F23P frigates for overseas operations like it has done in Gulf of Aden (PNS Babur), joint operations between the 2 navys will enhance co-operation and will provide both navys with valuable experience in operating on the high seas

I agree, it seems plausible that Pakistan will become an important Chinese ally. Both sides benefit from this agreement, the Pakistanis get good weapons for a reasonable price from China and were even supported in their nuclear ambitions. This helps Pakistan to negate the US influence on their politics and the politics of their dependants, like Afghanistan.
China gets a powerful ally with a professional military that helps to guard their connection to Central Asia, the Gulf over sea and over land and their Indian Ocean SLoC to Africa. From a Chinese perspective pro forma foreign bases aren't necessary if you do permanent joint deployments to help and train each other that mean de facto foreign presence. So I would expect that China will help Pakistan to feel saver from the Indian carrier threat and have by "accident" Indian Ocean naval bases for permanent "makeshift" deployments.
Further effects can be increased Chinese influence and military equipment exports to the small Arabian Gulf monarchies that rely heavily on Pakistani military specialists (pilots for example). However the ongoing US-Saudi vs. Iran crisis would curb this later development until a new situation stabilizes.

For the Taiwan Street this development means increased PLAN belief in their own security in what they consider home waters.

in term of its Navy Pakistan is not in a bad position, considering we only have 650 miles of coastline


4 x F22Ps
1 x Oliver Hazard Perry class (with 5 more due)
6 x Tariq class (Type 21 frigates)
5 x Submarines ( 3 Agosta 90B + 2 Agosta 70)
8 x Missile Boats
3 x Mine Hunters
8-10 Auxiliary ships
in addition to Hovercrafts and Patrol Boats

addded to that shore based anti-ship missiles, naval air defence and Pakistan Naval Aviation together this makes anyone entering Pakistanis waters a pretty risky business

we should replace

6 x Tariq Class with 4-6 x F23Ps
Alouette III with more Z9C helicopters
6 x Westland Sea King Mk45 with 6-10 Z8
Naval Dassault Mirage V are being replaced with Naval JF17
add 5 more upgraded Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates from US

asif iqbal said:

in term of its Navy Pakistan is not in a bad position, considering we only have 650 miles of coastline


4 x F22Ps
1 x Oliver Hazard Perry class (with 5 more due)
6 x Tariq class (Type 21 frigates)
5 x Submarines ( 3 Agosta 90B + 2 Agosta 70)
8 x Missile Boats
3 x Mine Hunters
8-10 Auxiliary ships
in addition to Hovercrafts and Patrol Boats

addded to that shore based anti-ship missiles, naval air defence and Pakistan Naval Aviation together this makes anyone entering Pakistanis waters a pretty risky business

we should replace

6 x Tariq Class with 4-6 x F23Ps
Alouette III with more Z9C helicopters
6 x Westland Sea King Mk45 with 6-10 Z8
Naval Dassault Mirage V are being replaced with Naval JF17
add 5 more upgraded Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates from US

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If I remember correctly the OHP frigates had their MK13 Launchers removed. So they don;t have any airdefence or ASROC capability is that correct?

i.e. said:

If I remember correctly the OHP frigates had their MK13 Launchers removed. So they don;t have any airdefence or ASROC capability is that correct?

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unfortunately US removed all SM-1 missile launchers from its fleet of Perry ships back in 2004, so yes no airdefence but we can fit on it some sort of air defence in future, possibly FL3000N or RAM

equipped with air search radar and sonar and 76mm gun, six tubes for launching Mk 46 anti-submarine torpedoes, and a 20mm auto cannon as anti-missile defense it is role for ASW for hunting Indian subs, during its overhaul other ASW equipped was also fitted

the $69 million ovehauled/upgrade included

"PNS Alamgir received a mostly mechanical overhaul, which had to be conducted in the US as part of the deal. All four diesels engines were removed and overhauled, along with air conditioning units and refrigeration. Fuel oil tanks and voids were cleaned, inspected, repaired and painted.
All shafting, the controllable pitch propeller system as well as sea valves were replaced, overhauled or renovated, with almost every pump opened, inspected and overhauled as needed.
Ventilators and fans went through a similar process of inspection and overhaul, while Breakers, NR3 switchboard, windlass, and boat davit all got inspections and overhauls.
Completely new equipment includes a new navigation suite and bridge, the composite dome over the fully overhauled AN/SQS-56 sonar, and a VIP cabin."

it has a crew of 220 and is 4,100 ton and can clock 55 kph, not bad for the price, if we took the Genesis upgrade we could just get a brand new F22P frigate for the price so not worth it, Turkey paid something like $75-100 million per ship for Genesis upgrade alone with MK41s

How Can They Fight Like This?