Landing probably won't happen until the last few days. More than 90% of the battle is going to be fought in the air and in the sea. That who controls the air and the sea will be victorious.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Landing probably won't happen until the last few days. More than 90% of the battle is going to be fought in the air and in the sea. That who controls the air and the sea will be victorious.
solarz
Brigadier
Honestly man, I don't get you.
One moment you're like "the CCP are useless cowards, they don't dare to invade Taiwan, look at their lack of landing capabilities", and now you're like "China has the ability to invade Taiwan, they're just choosing not to do so at the moment".
What exactly is your view on China's policy toward Taiwan?
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Yes they are putting economy before reunification and they are in delusion if they believe they can achieve reunification by peaceful mean. It is not going to happened and I don't see they make serious preparation to invade Taiwan. Maybe it is not their priority? you tell me. As this video clearly said they have to capability to prevent US from interfering in any Taiwan invasion but the didn't do it . The only conclusion I get is they don't have the gut!
Vast majority of the US military analysts and policy analysts acknowledge that China has the clear advantage over the US militarily during a Taiwan contingency. Essentially, the US military intervention is unwinnable against China. But more than a few of them now point out supposedly the main Chinese deficiency in launching an all out invasion of the island of Taiwan: lack of landing ships.
Leave aside whether this is true or not (I disagree strongly, as I have argued elsewhere at SDF), this argument feels a bit surreal. You're talking about clearly one of the areas of strength for China: shipbuilding. Ships of all sorts, that is. LPD, LHD, LST, LCAC are not something difficult to build, not for China anyway. They're also not like aircraft carriers or nuclear submarines, which are expensive and take a long time to build. Chinese shipyards can churn out all kinds of landing ships like sausages in no time if that's really the issue.
I suppose that putting up lack of landing ships as the excuse that China can not launch a successful invasion and landing of Taiwan is really just another way of admitting that militarily Taiwan is a lost cause, with or without US military intervention.
So the barriers for China to finally take over Taiwan lie elsewhere, which would be a subject for a different discussion.
Leave aside whether this is true or not (I disagree strongly, as I have argued elsewhere at SDF), this argument feels a bit surreal. You're talking about clearly one of the areas of strength for China: shipbuilding. Ships of all sorts, that is. LPD, LHD, LST, LCAC are not something difficult to build, not for China anyway. They're also not like aircraft carriers or nuclear submarines, which are expensive and take a long time to build. Chinese shipyards can churn out all kinds of landing ships like sausages in no time if that's really the issue.
I suppose that putting up lack of landing ships as the excuse that China can not launch a successful invasion and landing of Taiwan is really just another way of admitting that militarily Taiwan is a lost cause, with or without US military intervention.
So the barriers for China to finally take over Taiwan lie elsewhere, which would be a subject for a different discussion.
WTF does "guts' have to do with it?
Chess games at this level has NOTHING to do with intestinal fortitude and EVERYTHING to do with risk mitigation.
Risks:
- Delayed technological dominance
- Trade restrictions due to engineered outrage
- ASEAN/Regional diplomatic estrangement
- Foreign sponsored insurgency and terrorism
Mitigation:
- Kinetic conflict will probably cripple the US image as invincible hegemon
- US is creeping towards financial collapse in the next 10 years
- DPP has the most to gain financially under the current set up
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Given the above, time is on China's side, With every passing year, its military grows more integrated and technologically advanced. By 2025 RCEP would be fully ratified and in full effect. By 2030, BRI and other global projects would have sufficiently anchored to weather any disruption, securing raw material and energy needs, furthering DCEP as a platform.
Why da fuck would you fight a unnecessary war now when everything is in your favor?
You can do a "hostile" takeover after 2030 with a net casualty of less than 10 between both ROC and PRC, mostly from operational accident necessary to any large military ops. Yea, you can call it a invasion, but it would be 99.9% peaceful.
Sure, you can blast mofos if you want to, but dead are gone and their friends and relatives will hate you forever.
Or would you rather China do a GWOT/OIF and jump into shit half baked? Guts are for amateurs/morons.
Here is a dude with gut, and how did go for us?
To even bring "Guts" into the equation diminishes perceptions of your acumen and or knowledge base.
solarz
Brigadier
Well first of all, China has clearly defined the conditions for armed reunification, and both Taiwan and the US knows it. Therefore, until TW actually violates those conditions, peaceful reunification is still on the table.
Second, just because you *can* do something, doesn't mean you *should*. Any armed conflict is risky, and peace is always preferable to war. I'm not sure what part of the video you are referring to, but how exactly do you envision China preventing the US from interfering? Seems to me that this is exactly what China has been working on for the past 30 years with its military modernization!
Finally, like you said, the key point to all of this is US intervention. The idea that a quick war will prevent US intervention is 90's thinking, and that was because China didn't have any better options. Today, the goal is to prevent the US from interfering even if they wanted to by building weapons systems that will clearly defeat any US intervention. LSTs don't appear to be a priority right now most likely because they don't contribute toward that objective.
solarz
Brigadier
Here is a dude with gut, and how did go for us?
To think people thought *he* was the worst president ever. LOL!
Why think James Bond when we can think Operation Ajax? But, you have a point. Maybe China could seek Russian assistance?
It has less to do with proficiency and more to do with immigrant population and reserve currency.
The US has a large segment of immigrant population with can infiltrate back into the host country with ease.
Having the reserve currency, US can always rush in when the host country financially collapse and coopt someone with bailout and or blackmail.
It is simply a measure of short term calculus, nothing really to admire of.
In the long term, all these actions will result in unintended entropy, hastening US departure from primacy.
The Western world has never really understood the core of Eastern thought, that in some/many instances inaction is action itself......
Russia intel is not as good but better than China's. Putin used false flag to attack Chechen rebels and retake control of Chechnya. If China is to retake Taiwan, China would require the use of false flag attack and blame the it on Taiwan and deploy carte blanche to destroy the Taiwanese government with no foreign interference.