PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

CMP said:

The Pentagon has made clear that they intend to strike all critical infrastructure and major cities on the mainland. Don't be naive in thinking this will purely end with some lost planes, ships, and subs.

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They may have stated this, explicitly. However, whether their stated intent and actual intent are one, I’d question. First question is how effectively they can even accomplish this. Second is are Japan and Korea prepared for the potential response.
I’d say don’t be naive in thinking the Pentagon is forecasting it’s actual intentions.

sr338 said:

Yes, that's one of the main reason why I'm against AR. Taiwan is not worth it, the enemy is the USA, Taiwan is just pawn.
Go total war against USA or no war at all, all in between options are playing into US hands.
If China push the US back to the West Coast, all issues in Asia; Taiwan, Japs, etc. gets solved overnights.

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Yet, isn’t the Taiwan issue the only of China’s “core interests” in which the U. S. has threatened to intervene, militarily? Without this, what cause for war, at all?

james smith esq said:

Yet, isn’t the Taiwan issue the only of China’s “core interests” in which the U. S. has threatened to intervene, militarily? Without this, what cause for war, at all?

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War is not about national price other emotional stuff, it's about what you can gain from it strategically.

AR: kill a tons of your own people for an small island.
Use Taiwan as bait and drag US into an unwinnable war. If China lose, not much changes, since the "world" "expect" the US to win. If you win and push the US back to the West Coast? China will not be ending the US hegemony, China become the new hegemony.

People need to think about potential gain, war is not about emotion. Trojan war didn't star because of Helen, it started because Troy was in an important location and there is much to gain taking it. There is not much to gain taking Taiwan, there is much to gain beating the USA

james smith esq said:

I think the deference exhibited, and patience advocated, by some, here, is based more in their own financial interests than in any ‘loyalty’ to a Chinese national agenda. They make money regardless of U. S. hegemonic domination, and, maybe, even because of it.

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War comes with high costs and consequences. There will be loss of lives and suffering on a massive scale. War should aways be the last resort.

tphuang said:

If there is any lesson to learn from the Ukraine conflict, it's that trying to be the good guy once you already started the conflict is a worthless endeavor. China would be stupid to hold back once it makes the decision to attack. Go all out, give yourself the best chance to win is the logical solution. If you are not ready to do that and be the bad guy, don't attack.

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Lesson from Ukraine conflict is don't be baited into prematurely starting a war that should not have been fought.

sr338 said:

AR: kill a tons of your own people for an small island.
Use Taiwan as bait and drag US into an unwinnable war. If China lose, not much changes, since the "world" "expect" the US to win. If you win and push the US back to the West Coast? China will not be ending the US hegemony, China become the new hegemony.

People need to think about potential gain, war is not about emotion. Trojan war didn't star because of Helen, it started because Troy was in an important location and there is much to gain taking it. There is not much to gain taking Taiwan, there is much to gain beating the USA

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The problem is Taiwan is indeed a highly strategic location, so it's not purely a matter of national pride. Status quo is acceptable as long as Taiwan remains a neutral ground that is not turned into a strategic high ground for a foreign power. War for sake of beating USA and gaining hegemony is even more senseless. Goal should be improving the lives and prosperity of Chinese citizens, and the military exists to provide security over real core interests and deter coercion and threats to those interests. The goal of developing the military should be to deter war in order to enable peaceful development, not to fight in actual wars.

Discussing the military aspects of potential Taiwan contingency should just be viewed as a thought exercise that will never develop into reality.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

War comes with high costs and consequences. There will be loss of lives and suffering on a massive scale. War should aways be the last resort.



Lesson from Ukraine conflict is don't be baited into prematurely starting a war that should not have been fought.



The problem is Taiwan is indeed a highly strategic location, so it's not purely a matter of national pride. Status quo is acceptable as long as Taiwan remains a neutral ground that is not turned into a strategic high ground for a foreign power. War for sake of beating USA and gaining hegemony is even more senseless. Goal should be improving the lives and prosperity of Chinese citizens, and the military exists to provide security over real core interests and deter coercion and threats to those interests. The goal of developing the military should be to deter war in order to enable peaceful development, not to fight in actual wars.

Discussing the military aspects of potential Taiwan contingency should just be viewed as a thought exercise that will never develop into reality.

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Taiwan is already being used by the US to deprive Chinese firms of chip fanning services. So it's already not "neutral." Ditto for US military personnel training on the island.

theorlonator said:

Taiwan is already being used by the US to deprive Chinese firms of chip fanning services. So it's already not "neutral." Ditto for US military personnel training on the island.

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US economic sanctions also prevented mainland fabs using equipment containing US technology from accepting orders from certain Chinese customers. As Taiwan is considered part of China, why should sanctions applied to TSMC be viewed any differently from sanctions applied to SMIC? Chip fabrication is not the real problem, problem is development of chipmaking tools and processes that do not rely on American technology. So the correct policy is to develop chipmaking tools and processes, not to launch military operation.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

War comes with high costs and consequences. There will be loss of lives and suffering on a massive scale. War should aways be the last resort.



Lesson from Ukraine conflict is don't be baited into prematurely starting a war that should not have been fought.



The problem is Taiwan is indeed a highly strategic location, so it's not purely a matter of national pride. Status quo is acceptable as long as Taiwan remains a neutral ground that is not turned into a strategic high ground for a foreign power. War for sake of beating USA and gaining hegemony is even more senseless. Goal should be improving the lives and prosperity of Chinese citizens, and the military exists to provide security over real core interests and deter coercion and threats to those interests. The goal of developing the military should be to deter war in order to enable peaceful development, not to fight in actual wars.

Discussing the military aspects of potential Taiwan contingency should just be viewed as a thought exercise that will never develop into reality.

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>highly strategic location.
Yes and easily controllable since the entire island is within MRLS range. Just blockade the island and force all trade to go through mainland and you have de-facto control. You don't even need to land. You then bait the US, they either pussies out or get wreaked in a war.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

US economic sanctions also prevented mainland fabs using equipment containing US technology from accepting orders from certain Chinese customers. As Taiwan is considered part of China, why should sanctions applied to TSMC be viewed any differently from sanctions applied to SMIC? Chip fabrication is not the real problem, problem is development of chipmaking tools and processes that do not rely on American technology.

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You sanction back, which China has started doing, shut down the US MIC and the next gen of western tech.
Also, do like I said above ^. Everything in and out of Taiwan pass by the Mainland, what the USA is gonna do about it?

FriedRiceNSpice said:

US economic sanctions also prevented mainland fabs using equipment containing US technology from accepting orders from certain Chinese customers. As Taiwan is considered part of China, why should sanctions applied to TSMC be viewed any differently from sanctions applied to SMIC? Chip fabrication is not the real problem, problem is development of chipmaking tools and processes that do not rely on American technology. So the correct policy is to develop chipmaking tools and processes, not to launch military operation.

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I just brought up those two things to demonstrate it not being neutral. Also, Taiwan doing a "trade agreement" with the US lol.

james smith esq said:

Losing those assets/capabilities would end the war!

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or the start of nuke war and end all of us

antiterror13 said:

or the start of nuke war and end all of us

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They’re not that committed!

Ultimately, when the U. S. is forced from the Chinese regional sphere of military predominance, it will just re-double it’s efforts at domination in South America. Once China reaches near-nuclear parity (like filling all those new silos being built), U. S. interest in military conflict with China will diminish proportionately.