Does anyone have any sort of idea of how many bm/cm China actually has? A key part of this discussion is how well China can deny the 1IC & 2IC to the US. I have seen estimates of like 1.5K which sound absurd as that is literally the amount that Iran has. So does anyone have any sort of idea?
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Don't think we have some good numbers on ballistic missiles or cruise missiles.
I personally think 1.5k for ballistic missiles seems plausible (and also plausible for more than that), as for cruise missiles? Anything below 10k seems low. so if that were the case, more need to be made.
I have been reading typical chauvinistic nonsense on r/worldnews and r/geopolitics and it has made me realize that even if China performs horrifically bad in this war to what could be reasonably expected it would be many times better than what the average westerner who takes the infographics show seriously is expecting. I don't believe that even in an extremely optimistic scenario for the US that Okinawa would be operable within a week of the start of the conflict. Initially of course with a Chinese first strike there would be rage and bloodlust in the US but when they see Kadena and Anderson on fire will morale drop rapidly like it did for Japan WW2 post nukes? A lot of congress people are not versed in military matters as well so they might force an end to American involvement only a few days into it when China inevitably causes massive American losses.
solarz
Brigadier
That would be as foolish as China launching a pre-emptive strike against the US.
People on these forums are far too quick to throw war around. They forget that war is only a beginning, not an end.
Let's say the US militarily strikes China, then what? What is their objective? China has a massive industrial capacity and far more territorial depth than the US military can ever hope to cover. An unprovoked strike at China would shred what remains of US credibility and influence, put massive strain on its already teetering economy, while China would go on the war footing and start churning out weapons at an astronomical rate. The US would end up suffering the same fate as Japan when it launched Pearl Harbor.
Clearly, the US is not planning to launch a pre-emptive attack on China. They are trying to shape global events in order to force a Chinese first strike against Taiwan, and then use its regional vassals (Japan, SK, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia) to bleed China dry while sitting safely back across the Pacific.
China's response to that strategy is simple: ignore the provocations and build up its defenses. The key point of contention here is whether a unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan would force China to launch AR before it is militarily capable of defeating the US and its vassals decisively. I believe that is the fulcrum US strategists have latched onto, and indeed pinned all their hopes on, but it is nothing but wishful thinking. Regardless of when or whether Taiwan declares independence, China will launch AR when it is ready, and not a moment before. There are no material obstacles preventing China from taking this most rational and beneficial decision, therefore this is almost certainly what China would be doing in such an event.
Well, all the specifics, aside, my take has been, and will be, that control of the air and sea (surface and sub), in the first island chain is the key and that anything beyond that is secondary, at best!
The East China Sea and the Ryukus are gon’na git hot! The biggest question, to me, is what South Korea’s position will be.
I don’t know if you’re referring to materiel losses or personnel losses, but the only losses that will matter are losses of capacity. Once USAF loses capacity to conduct air-defense operations over the East China Sea, it will fall on the USN’s carrier fleet. I’d expect these to deploy, at least, 1200 km from the mainland, and even then to still be at risk. My expectation is that the U. S. gov’t would be willing to lose no more than two carriers before scaling down. If they’re really committed, they might be willing to lose four.
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I concur (not that this matters, to you)!
I believe that a unilateral declaration of independence simply puts into effect the preparatory political, economic, and psychological programs while the military increases capability.
That doesn't really make sense. If US itself thinks it can't out produce China, then what hopes do Japan and Philippines have?
The goal of US is territorial aggression, and the fact is, the local separatists that they could ally up with are incredibly, woefully inadequate by themselves. Adding the distant support of Japan or Philippines would change nothing, since these countries don't have nearly enough power to breach the 1st island chain line.
If US lets the separatist forces stand by themselves, China would roll them in hours.
No, rather what will happen is the same as what happened in Ukraine. Russia/US would have no choice but to launch a massive offensive with it's own forces, because otherwise the separatists would get rolled by a superior conventional force, and the words of Russia/US when they claimed they would "protect" the "rights of peoples to self determination" against "nazism" or "communism" will be ridiculed by the whole world.
American hands will quite likely literally be forced to go into a war, no matter how well prepared US actually is to take on Chinese defenses, unless US urgently begins scaling back it's aggressive rhetoric and making amends.
Losing 4 carriers at 30% readiness is basically losing the whole operational fleet though.
As I said, if they’re really committed; meaning that Taiwan isn’t the main issue, but the prevention of China’s rise!
I prediction is that U.S will not lose any carriers.. It will stay far away from its missile range because they cannot afford to lose even one of them. Carriers don't matter in this war. The missile production rate and stockpile will be the deciding factor in this war. China is a manufacturing powerhouse that no other countries can compete in this realm.. China is the king of "quantity".. U.S will run out of antimissile pretty quick... next thing you know, all of their infrastructures are left without defense or protection.. its going to get bombarded.