PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

tphuang

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
solarz said:
I have no idea why you think what I wrote is "victim mentality".

Your second paragraph is exactly what I had in mind when I pointed out that some posters on here don't understand the full ramifications of war. What you propose is exactly what American strategists hope China will do.
Click to expand...
What are you talking about? China attacking American forces in westpac is really bad for America.
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
Biscuits said:
1. Taiwan war: Invasion by US only with Japan reluctantly providing bases vs China only. MDT technically invoked, but turned down in order to not further escalate the situation by dragging in NK.
Click to expand...

If US bombers are taking of from Japanese bases, or US carriers are being supplied from those bases, then China is going to attack those bases.

That immediately gives the US the leverage to drag Japan into the war. The same thing applies for any other country that provides bases for the US to attack China.

Therefore, such scenarios will always lead to a chain of events that will escalate into a major war between China and all US vassals in the vicinity.
 
tphuang

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
FriedRiceNSpice said:
When would this attack happen? As a Pearl Harbor style pre-emptive strike, or after America already commits to the war and begins deploying forces into the theater?
Click to expand...
I think there has been a lot of discussions on this in the westpac thread and I have learnt a lot from @Patchwork_Chimera 's commentaries
 
FriedRiceNSpice

FriedRiceNSpice

Captain
Patchwork_Chimera said:
Uhh, not really lol. I'm surprised I have to say it, but we do not want the PLA to start shooting at us while we have our pants down.

There seems to be a strange view held by a few on here that the US is looking to "invade" China pretty much just for the sake of it. That is not at all how we perceive things, and attributing that mindset to us will lead to some fairly glaring incorrect assumptions. As such, allow me to give a very brief and oversimplified clarification. We would very much like to avoid a shooting war over Taiwan if it is possible to do so, but we also do not want to "lose" the very high-profile contest over whether Taiwan remains de-facto independent. Combine this with a bunch of politicians trying to look "Hard on China!" to appease their voters, and it should be fairly obvious why our politicians end up doing all the peacocking and poking, and it should be pretty easy to see why we want to keep up militarily with the PLA in the region. If we were intent on "taking" Taiwan, as opposed to it simply being a political game we play, we could have and we would have done so decades ago.
Click to expand...
Likewise, same reason last thing US would want is Korean reunification - it is in the US's interests to keep North Korea around as long as possible (although the acquisition of nuclear weapons by North Korea does impact the calculus to some degree).

Leaving the Korean and Taiwan questions open allows the US to maintain leverage and influence over various nations in the region. Hence the status quo with regards to Taiwan is likely to be maintained until there is a sudden shift in the geopolitical priorities of the nation's involved. Fortunately, actual likelihood of actual conflict starting for the reason of Taiwan unification / independence would be low, and would be ancillary over real reasons and goals of initiating conflict.

I don't think neither the US nor China would welcome the prospect of the direct conflict with the other in the foreseeable future.
 
A

aqh

Junior Member
Registered Member
This might seem like a very basic question but does China have a JDAM esqe wing kit supercheap thing that can make stuff into pgms?
 
FriedRiceNSpice

FriedRiceNSpice

Captain
ZeEa5KPul said:
Taiwan has no "chip production." What is has is at the sufferance of ASML, whose own capability is at the sufferance of Germany and the US.

The idea that China wants Taiwan to control chip production is laughably wrong. China is developing its own comprehensive, end-to-end semiconductor supply chain from sand to chips, and that'll be ready long before China is capable of winning every AR scenario with complete certainty. Taiwan is first and foremost an unresolved matter from the Chinese Civil War, and secondarily a geographical lynchpin for control of the western Pacific.
Click to expand...
It's not that China needs TSMC, rather the US and other industrial nations has high reliance on TSMC.
 
M

montyp165

Senior Member
aqh said:
This might seem like a very basic question but does China have a JDAM esqe wing kit supercheap thing that can make stuff into pgms?
Click to expand...
Easiest way to tell is to see if it's already available for export, but in general such kits would be available to the PLA in one form or another in regards to cost-effectiveness and improved range of action.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top