The corollary to that is that the US only has a certain window of action after starting direct hostilities in which to achieve a successful military outcome (my rough estimate being 6 months), for if they cannot beat China by the end of that timeframe Chinese industrial power will essentially do to the US what the US did to Japan in WW2.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
There would not be "Taiwan liberation front" in any meaningful capacity, for the simple reason that the petite bourgeoisie is inherently weak and seek to preserve their comfort and wealth above all else, which is the entire reason why they believe in liberalism. But "Give me liberty or give me death!" said the Liberal, no, liberals are literally the least qualified group in the entire history of the world to say this phrase, they are the least likely to engage in violent resistance of all political groups. Insurgency groups have overwhelmingly being Leftist, nationalist or Islamic, those who spout "Freedom" or something immediately get subsumed by the other three within a short period of time.
They'll protest, they'll mald with fury you've never seen before, but nothing that'll actually put their lives permanently at risk. Of course, the ones you have to watch out for are the ultra-nationalist, but I severely doubt their influence due to their questionable number and conviction.
What must done is an immediate overhaul to Taiwan's education system and restriction of influence, none of the HK protestors that loved the UK lived a day under UK colonial rule, the longer one lived under UK colonial rule, the lower the opinion of the West one has. Those above 20 is mostly set in their political belief, there's little chance of changing it, you'll have to wait for the new generation to grow up under a new education system.
Enacting a full naval blockade against a sovereign country is a hostile act against said country, which in effect, can be considered an outright act of war.
Once that happens - As soon as all options to resolve and lift the naval blockade through diplomatic and show-of-force means by China has been exhausted - Then Beijing should transform her warfighting effort to total war against whoever is conducting the full naval blockade against China (in this case, the US & Lackeys Co.) - Whether the US & Lackeys Co. are directly involved in Operation AR of Taiwan against China or not.
But, if the full naval blockade against China is enacted while the US & Lackeys Co. is already directly fighting China over Operation AR, then all restrains are off. Total war, straight away.
However, it should be noted that unless the US & Lackeys Co. deploys WMDs of any kind against China first, China should not be the first one to use WMDs.
Once that happens - As soon as all options to resolve and lift the naval blockade through diplomatic and show-of-force means by China has been exhausted - Then Beijing should transform her warfighting effort to total war against whoever is conducting the full naval blockade against China (in this case, the US & Lackeys Co.) - Whether the US & Lackeys Co. are directly involved in Operation AR of Taiwan against China or not.
But, if the full naval blockade against China is enacted while the US & Lackeys Co. is already directly fighting China over Operation AR, then all restrains are off. Total war, straight away.
However, it should be noted that unless the US & Lackeys Co. deploys WMDs of any kind against China first, China should not be the first one to use WMDs.
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As an example, China produces about 1.5 million motorcycles every month. If 20% of this capacity is converted to producing Shaheed lawnmower-engine powered cruise missiles, that is 300K munitions per month. Then it is a question of integrating these with the 2000-odd launch trucks in the Army and Rocket Force. Then if you add 2 smartphones, you get stereoscopic vision. That definitely gets you terrain guidance and also terminal optical guidance.
@HighGround
And come to think of it, in a China blockade scenario, we would see production of electric scooters, electric bicycles and electric motorbikes boom as well. Most journeys in the world are short distance, which is especially the case in China because cities are so dense.
You can see electric scooters being sold at just $100 each, and there are over 350 million electric scooters already in China.
So a Ukrainian USV just hit a Russian landing ship from 400+ km away. You can buy high end 160 hp yacht marine engines for $3000 on Alibaba. That's enough to drive a 2-3 ton mini USV with 300 kg payload and everything else being engine and fuel, with electronics being negligible weight.
It can run partially submerged with a polymeric RF transparent air breathing snorkel. The hull can be shaped to maximize stealth above the water and minimize drag below the water. Unlike UAVs these can be pre launched and loiter for months in the middle of the ocean, and can be tasked to tail CBGs, oil tankers and supply ships. And when it comes time to strike, they'll have satcoms to send and receive 2 way data.
It can run partially submerged with a polymeric RF transparent air breathing snorkel. The hull can be shaped to maximize stealth above the water and minimize drag below the water. Unlike UAVs these can be pre launched and loiter for months in the middle of the ocean, and can be tasked to tail CBGs, oil tankers and supply ships. And when it comes time to strike, they'll have satcoms to send and receive 2 way data.
TBH, it would be even better for the PLA, PAP and even the Militia if these kamikaze drones can be fitted into and launched from:
1. Modules with similar dimensions as (plus camouflaged as) enclosed trailers, which can be towed by literally any semi-tractors across China:
2. And/or modules with similar dimensions as (plus camouflaged as) ISO shipping containers, which can be placed on literally any container chassis trailers and be towed by literally any semi-tractors across China:
3. And/or modules with similar dimensions as (plus camouflaged as) towed campers, which can be towed by literally any SUVs and pickup trucks across China (at the cost of capacity and size):
4. And/or modules with similar dimensions as (plus camouflaged as) towed campers that are even smaller in size, which can be towed by literally any cars across China (again, at the cost of capacity and size):
The possibilities are endless. Of course, all the above suggestions are also applicable for missiles of all types, from mini-size missiles with ranges of only 10s or 100s of meters to large-size missiles with ranges of 100s or even 1000s of kilometers.
If the US & Lackeys Co. wants to hunt for these kamikaze drone (and missile) launchers across China with their precious B-21s while being escorted by NGADs, F/A-XXs, GCAP and FCAS alongside their wingman UCAVs, good luck to them in finding those amongst the hundreds of millions (if not billions) of road vehicles across China.
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The launchers being hunted is a very minor threat to begin with. US currently has less bombers than Russia, and besides Taiwan, all of China has at the very least as much strategic depth as Lviv, with non coastal areas being untouchable.
They're also defended arguably with the most concentrated air defenses and CAP in the world. Which is much more than what Russia is going up against.
Russia isn't able to hunt down launchers that far behind the front lines, even with all the air platforms they have. It's not that they couldn't brute force in, but if they do, they'd be trading cheap launchers for expensive planes.
There are chances that launchers in Taiwan could be struck, especially before the PLA has spread out, but those aren't gonna be the high impact launchers in the initial part of the conflict.
By the time any B21 and 6th gen make it into service, they will be in token number, and matched by token numbers of equivalent platforms on the PLA side.
The Iranians use commercial trucks with shipping containers containing 5 Shaheed each.
But that would require more units to be formed. In contrast, the Army and Rocket Force launch trucks already exist
The Rocket Force will run out of missiles very quickly as they only have is 1-3? reloads.
In any war, there will be a lot of Army Groups which won't be engaged for some weeks. You might as well concentrate those launch trucks and use them for initial massed strikes. Afterwards, there simply won't be enough targets left anyway.
In addition, why would the US be hunting low-cost missile launch trucks, when there is a much juicier target in terms of fixed airbases where expensive aircraft are located.
And remember they would need to deal with the Chinese Air Force anyway, if they wanted to hold the First Island Chain.
We already saw how F’d up the global economy became with Covid. Once things aren’t coming out of China full speed, shelves become empty. Shelves empty means jobs dry up.
Good luck with those economic blockade plans…