Correct me if I am wrong but isn't independence already illegal under the 1C2S mini constituion as it literally says Hong Kong is part of China. Also I believe most tibetan monasteries within the gelug sect are Anti Dalai Lama (the 10th Panchen Lama was against his return and his previous incarition had conflicts with the Dalai Lama) as well as other sects who hate him so Tibetans aren't really an issue because most of them are Loyal Chinese.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Not many Western countries know China has 56 ethnic groups of people making up the whole of China's population, Tibetans are one of them....
They don't care. Everything to them can be divided and ruled. It's standard operating procedure for them to compel others (through a mix of manipulation, brainwashing, blackmailing, or other form of coercion) to believe that facts are fabrications and vice versa.
the simplest explanation was given by @Boltzmann - they do not accept that others are fully human with agency, creativity and cleverness.
Meanwhile, the Japanese continue to dial up the escalation meter (In unison with US actions in the SCS?) with another brazen move that violates China's sovereignty in Taiwan.
It seems the end goal is to normalize visits by currently serving officials from different NATO and NATO alligned countries as part of a larger plan to elevate Taiwan's status to an independent entity outside of China.
It seems the end goal is to normalize visits by currently serving officials from different NATO and NATO alligned countries as part of a larger plan to elevate Taiwan's status to an independent entity outside of China.
That won't work because everyone is a badass until the missiles land. Everyone has a plan until they're punched in the face.
Tbh I'm not sold on that the Japanese people can be mobilized. Tokyo is ruled by the same militarists as during the ww2 days, but the population has more or less completely bought the peace and prosperity propaganda line.
Japan has the oldest population in the world, almost all their kids are 1 child families, and a large portion of families don't have kids at all.
What is in it for average people in Japan to take over Taiwan? Knowing that Russia has an acceptable (but not remarkable by any means!) level of societal participation in their war, we can compare the reasons each side would have:
1. Ideological. Russia frames it's war as a contination of ww2. Japan could attempt to frame it's war as a crusade against communism, but unlike Russia where the Great Patriotic War is a huge thing, Japanese culture has never emphasized any major conflict as being explicitly against communism. Communism has also never invaded Japan nor caused atrocities like the Generalplan Ost, a large reason why nazism is so hated in Russia.
2. Protect same ethnic group. Not really applicable for Japan at all.
3. Risk vs Reward. An invasion could be justified if there's a decent reward and a low amount of risk. Most of the public won't clamor against a war that doesn't impact them much and allows the country to flex it's muscles.
Unlike Russia, where only some border territories are taking minor scratches, Japan would have to expect strategic bombing on all it's major cities from day 1 of the invasion and onwards. While Taiwan is psychologically important for the militarists because they lost it in ww2, most normal Japanese won't see much benefit in owning the island.
Based on these points, I think in the event Japan manages to go to war, there would be massive issues with manpower and internal dissent. The leadership would essentially be hijacking the population into a deeply unpopular decision that will have devastating impacts on everyone.
If a few weeks into the invasion, China is holding it's lines, much of the Japanese forces have been destroyed during unsuccessful advances towards Taiwan and bombing is starting to take it's toll, it's not unreasonable to believe that a coup would happen that would take Japan out of the war. Or possibly, a faction within Japan would predict this disaster before hostilities and oust the warmonger faction before the war even starts.
Japan has the oldest population in the world, almost all their kids are 1 child families, and a large portion of families don't have kids at all.
What is in it for average people in Japan to take over Taiwan? Knowing that Russia has an acceptable (but not remarkable by any means!) level of societal participation in their war, we can compare the reasons each side would have:
1. Ideological. Russia frames it's war as a contination of ww2. Japan could attempt to frame it's war as a crusade against communism, but unlike Russia where the Great Patriotic War is a huge thing, Japanese culture has never emphasized any major conflict as being explicitly against communism. Communism has also never invaded Japan nor caused atrocities like the Generalplan Ost, a large reason why nazism is so hated in Russia.
2. Protect same ethnic group. Not really applicable for Japan at all.
3. Risk vs Reward. An invasion could be justified if there's a decent reward and a low amount of risk. Most of the public won't clamor against a war that doesn't impact them much and allows the country to flex it's muscles.
Unlike Russia, where only some border territories are taking minor scratches, Japan would have to expect strategic bombing on all it's major cities from day 1 of the invasion and onwards. While Taiwan is psychologically important for the militarists because they lost it in ww2, most normal Japanese won't see much benefit in owning the island.
Based on these points, I think in the event Japan manages to go to war, there would be massive issues with manpower and internal dissent. The leadership would essentially be hijacking the population into a deeply unpopular decision that will have devastating impacts on everyone.
If a few weeks into the invasion, China is holding it's lines, much of the Japanese forces have been destroyed during unsuccessful advances towards Taiwan and bombing is starting to take it's toll, it's not unreasonable to believe that a coup would happen that would take Japan out of the war. Or possibly, a faction within Japan would predict this disaster before hostilities and oust the warmonger faction before the war even starts.
"Average" people don't make decisions.
This war is likely to be quick and decisive anyway. You can't build batches of ships in a few weeks like you can with tanks. Well, maybe China can, but certainly nobody else.
Once Japan is bombed and defeated in a few weeks, Japan won't have the military capacity to threaten China anymore anyway. So popular support is a bit of a moot point.
In my opinion of course. Who knows how things actually unfold.
well, if it actually gets to serving officials of certain capacity, China can always just terminate relationship with that country. Dude, stop getting alarmed and outraged by everything.
As long as there is no formal move toward Taiwan independence, China should not do anything kinetic. There are plenty of aggressive actions it can take.