PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

You can make both arguments, for Taiwan belonging to China and arguments against that. This is rather normal practice for lawyers, you just need to find a good argument for a compelling legal reason and as all know there are usually two or more lawyers in a court argumenting for totally different interpretations. It's nice to know about the legal background and I'm also at fault for the lengthy discussion of it, but could we please fly with the fat pilot and "STAY ON TOPIC". Thanks, it would be a shame if this thread got closed because we tried to find a solution to the endless claims on what Taiwan is allowed to be legally.

Let's talk about what the PLA Navy can do in the Taiwan Strait.
I repeat myself, but I consider their first role will be laying own naval mines and clearing enemy naval mines.
Second task will be supporting the aerial bombing campaign by establishing a PLAN air defense over at least parts of Taiwan, making flying for the ROC very hard, even if they miracously make their aircrafts survive the onslaught.
Third task will be to escort and protect the landing of troops and their constant supply.
All the time PLAN will have to fight ROC submarines so it might be a good idea to have their old noisy submarines in position, waiting silently for enemy fish sneaking into their zone of intended sea control in the Taiwan Strait.
Outside the Strait the most important fight will be about closing all sea lines of communication of Taiwan against all Taiwanese attempts to clear at least one from time to time.

An efficient blockade and overwhelming precision bombing could convince Taiwan to surrender without going through ground combat on their shores. So PLAN might be well advised to wait with the amphibious invasion and thus cause less destruction and more goodwill on the island because it was a rather surgical war with very few persons directly involved in combat.

Kurt said:

I repeat myself, but I consider their first role will be laying own naval mines and clearing enemy naval mines.

Second task will be supporting the aerial bombing campaign by establishing a PLAN air defense over at least parts of Taiwan, making flying for the ROC very hard, even if they miracously make their aircrafts survive the onslaught.

Third task will be to escort and protect the landing of troops and their constant supply.

All the time PLAN will have to fight ROC submarines so it might be a good idea to have their old noisy submarines in position, waiting silently for enemy fish sneaking into their zone of intended sea control in the Taiwan Strait.

Outside the Strait the most important fight will be about closing all sea lines of communication of Taiwan against all Taiwanese attempts to clear at least one from time to time.

An efficient blockade and overwhelming precision bombing could convince Taiwan to surrender without going through ground combat on their shores. So PLAN might be well advised to wait with the amphibious invasion and thus cause less destruction and more goodwill on the island because it was a rather surgical war with very few persons directly involved in combat.

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Mining waters can and will work both ways.

If the PLAN mines Taiwan waters, Taiwans Air Force and Navy will try and interdict that as soon as they know what is going on...and then proceed to mine PRC waters in retaliation...not to mention mining the straits themselves to help prevent any landings.

If the PLAN and PLAAF try and do a precision bombing campaign, they will spend quite a bit of time trying to "persuade" the ROC to surrender when what the ROC will then do is try and draw out the fight, so that the US can respond.

Right now, an attempt by force by the PRC will result in the US helping the ROC.

In that scenario, the PLAN will have to not only negate the ROC quickly and achieve air dominance, they will have to invade and be on the sialnd and doing well so that the US is faced with a fait accomplae by the time they arrive.

For that to happen eveything would have to go perfectly...and I doubt it will. Like I said, the ROC has had decades to prepare for this just like the PRC has, and it would be foolish to think that they are not prepared and will husband and save a lot of resource that the PLAN and PLAAF will miss or not get to so they can draw the conflict out, and keep the PRC from being able to effectively achieve air dominance and a successful precision campaign.

The best strategy is to continue to moderate both ways, economically and socially so that the two sides merge as a result of wanting to merge together. I believe that that is what the PRC is working at, using the threat of force as something to try and keep independence from being directly declared.

At the same time, in my visits to the ROC, most Taiwanese, irrespective of legaleze, old treaties, and even threats, point to the last 50 years and feel themselves that they are in essence already independent and have been living that way for a long time, whether it is officially announced or not.

Getting this rising generation to want to "merge" will be a task for cool heads and negotiations...not force, if a tragic conflict is to be avoided that would have every potential of spreading...drawing in the US, and potentially both Koreas and Japan into it depending on how it goes.

ROCN has what, two diesel subs lul? Of course it would be unwise to write them off completely but any PLAN taskforce sent to blockade the island should have their own ASW assets anyway, whether they be additional 054As, choppers, or their own SSKs and SSNs (which despite what david axe and ONI says, should definitely be quieter than ROCN's two decade old hai lung SSKs)

I'm really wary about discussing actual military strategy, a lot depends on the political climate before combat starts. For instance if taiwan would've been moving slowly to independence over the course of a year before officially declaring it, you can bet the PLA and likely the US (and possibly allies) will have forces on alert. If hostilities occur out of the blue it will take the US slightly longer to get to the scene but the PLA will also have a shorter time to dispatch its forces and more importantly, less time to ready its ballistic missiles to disable air fields, CC centres, naval bases etc... depending on the US, japanese, SK stance on the hypothetical "crisis" China may be forced to let loose conventional ballistic missiles against hostile bases once there is a stated intent to intervene.

So yes PLAN may initially partake in a blockade against the island, but will also have to engage or head off the US from intefering which is the harder task of the two. Depending on the situation the US may also move to cut off China's oil supply which further complicates matters... but if it is well into the future enough (think 2025+) where China's economic, political and military clout should exceed, rival, and rival the US's own, then it might be enough to head off military interference, especially if the US's economic state forces it to lessen its global policing in the near future. But by that point Taiwan should have little to no reason to declare independence -- and thus start hostilities -- in the first place, for the mainland would be in a much more advantageous position and its economy should benefit taiwan as well.

So beyond being near certain that the PLA will fire a large number of ballistic missiles and long ranged rockets against taiwan in attempt to cripple its air force, CC centres, bases, naval docks, etc, I think any prediction on what else they do (whether that be a precision bombing campaign, blockade, naval mining the sh*t out of the area, amphibious landings or a combination) is up in the air and depends on the situation and more importantly the US's response or lack of response.

Taiwanese economy is only 1/17 of Chinese ($7T vs $430B), to put it into a perspective, just one year of Chinese economic growth is equal to around 1.5 Taiwanese whole economy !




So, my point is ... there is no way for Taiwanese to compete with China especially militarily, they have to cooperate with them to survive. Remember they are the same people, the same culture and have same values.

Only the USA and Japan don't want China and Taiwan to re-unite as it would make China a lot lot stronger, look at the geography of Taiwan, you will understand what I mean

Dear Bltizo and Jeff Head,

Do you know the story of the Third Punic War? A completely unarmed city forged new arms and armour within days to fight one of the largest and best armies the world had then seen in front of their city walls - successfully. It took over a year to take this besieged city.

Back to Taiwan and China, I consider it within the realm of possibility that for example midget submarines, bathyscapes and submersibles get constructed in a frenzy for naval mining campaign demand. As correctly pointed out, I believe that both sides will mine and cause lots of damage through this. I would consider the war to be about the minefields in its first stage. No matter how good you are, it's impossible to win that fast against a capable enemy.

Summarizing my conclusions, Taiwan has the ability to turn into a naval encirclement battle with heavy reliance on latest naval mine technology, submarines and submersibles. Commandos of all warring factions will operate on the island to acquire targets and liquidate each other. If possible amphibious raids will be conducted, but I as a commader would be wary to establish even a bridgehead lest occupy the island. During a siege situation things can turn into a Leningrad. Paris is more likely in my opinion if the instrument of surrender is known and acceptable to the population because of the moderation of demands.

This naval encirclement battle is my basic conclusion on how things will play out in these littoral waters. Whoever sits within the encirclement is at a disadvantage and will face the wrath of a besieged population in peril that has an easy alternative and knows no other way out. So you actually win by not controlling this island until you are offered control voluntarily.

Keeping the island mined, but not occupied, is in my opinion also the better approach to deny US interference significant achievements. By contrast, if your troops occupy the island US commandos can with native guerilla support show all inhabitants just how good they are at beating the PLA in an unfair and rigged game (such asymmetric insurgencies are). So with boots on the ground the PLA offers even a symbolic US force the ability to create a quagmire that will eat away PLA strength and Taiwanese goodwill towards the mainland. If the situation is rather hopeless in ever opening the SLoC, the population will be convinced that their island is indefensible. Now it's rather about politics and intelligence (plus cloak and dagger + psychological warfare operations) to prepare a groundwork of friends for the invasion and identify the likely insurgents before they go undercover. This needs time and a rush to occupy makes the after-battle to keep it occupied much harder (look at how the Taleban play with the US armed forces despite being surprised and hunted at first).
Such an approach would be very much in line with the astonishing success during the civil war between PLA and Kuomintang. The PLA had slowly acquired information before making a devastating move. It's also similar to for example PLA volunteer force battle tactics in Korea, where a careful observation work was able to identify US infantry positions and thus make US troops run due to the extremely accurate fire at positions they had considered hidden (the US troops learned to counter these tactics). So in essence I consider the PLA an army that uses intelligence extensively for her achievements and knows when not to rush.

Confusing, I know, it was quite an exercise in logic for me, well, I hope I made my points convincing. And btw. I was only a simple conscript, not a field-marshal during my tour of duty So I may miss some very important military concepts that are just too high for my limited military horizon (good food, ammunition, no stupid orders).

Hello Kitty said:

Taiwan was ceded to Japan by China as part of the Treaty of Shimonoseki (馬關條約) in 1895. I am not sure why you believe that Taiwan is still a part of China. Even after Japan's surrender in 1945, Taiwan was never officially given to China as many people seem to believe.

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What a bunch of rot. Possession, as you know, is nine tenths of the law, and the RoC quite clearly took control of Taiwan after WWII (why would they need to specify something so blindly obvious in the peace treaties). No one, apart from a third rate State Department flunky, raised an objection.

And who's going to take control of Taiwan if not the RoC? A bunch of pro Japanese collaborators who managed to weasel out getting hung as war criminals by the Allies? The CCP?

As for self determination after WWII, fat chance of that. Unlike the Korean people's brave example of resistance during WWII, the vast majority Taiwanese population clearly supported the criminal enterprise war effort of Hitler and Tojo through a high rate of participation in the Japanese war machine and the lack of armed resistance against Japan, hence sharing in the collective war guilt. For that, Taiwan no more had any rights other than that of any other Axis population, if they didn't want to be part of the RoC (the Allies are not going to give Taiwan the same rights as their allies).

Skywatcher said:

Unlike the Korean people's brave example of resistance during WWII

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There are alot of Koreans serving alongside IJA during WWII, and some Korean units participated in the Nanjing Massacre.

no_name said:

There are alot of Koreans serving alongside IJA during WWII, and some Korean units participated in the Nanjing Massacre.

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The Koreans at least can claim to have resisted Japan, though, including whacking IJA flag officers and contributing whole divisions to the Allied war effort. Taiwanese, or at least those not under the KMT or CCP banners, did not such thing during World War II.

Skywatcher said:

The Koreans at least can claim to have resisted Japan, though, including whacking IJA flag officers and contributing whole divisions to the Allied war effort. Taiwanese, or at least those not under the KMT or CCP banners, did not such thing during World War II.

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Why? Was there a successful Japanization of the non-Chinese inhabitants going on, so unlike the Koreans and Chinese they were quite content with Japan?

Kurt said:

Why? Was there a successful Japanization of the non-Chinese inhabitants going on, so unlike the Koreans and Chinese they were quite content with Japan?

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The Japanese had been in Taiwan for 50+ years at the beginning of the WWII. China yielded the right to govern Taiwan to Japan after they lost the Sino-Japanese war in the late 1800's. They were quite successfully in colonizing the island. By that, I mean they did not use military and successfully developed the economy on the island. Many locals in Taiwan actually sided with the Japanese during WWII. According to an article I read years ago, many young Taiwanese hoped that Japan would successfully occupy and colonize China so that they could move to China and find better jobs. I'm not sure how true this is, but just something I found interesting.