To be honest with you, I had a difficult time understanding your "careful words." Maybe your English needs a little bit of polishing. What does "bearing that historical burden" have to do with allowing Taiwan to govern herself? Perhaps you could explain your reasoning to this "small minded Taiwanese" person. While you are at it maybe you can also explain China's fascination with a country containing a mere 20 some million people. It wouldn't be to distract people from it's own internal strife, would it? If China does annex Taiwan, how will it affect you personally? Will you all of a sudden not be living in squalor? I'm sorry. I just don't get the Mainland's rabid desire to possess Taiwan.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
To be honest with you, I had a difficult time understanding your "careful words." Maybe your English needs a little bit of polishing. What does "bearing that historical burden" have to do with allowing Taiwan to govern herself? Perhaps you could explain your reasoning to this "small minded Taiwanese" person. While you are at it maybe you can also explain China's fascination with a country containing a mere 20 some million people. It wouldn't be to distract people from it's own internal strife, would it? If China does annex Taiwan, how will it affect you personally? Will you all of a sudden not be living in squalor? I'm sorry. I just don't get the Mainland's rabid desire to possess Taiwan.
Are you talking about the side that has 2000+ missiles pointed at the other? The side that is actively trying to isolate the other from the rest of the world? The side that has threatened war if the other declares independence? Or are you talking about the side that is basically just trying to peacefully go on with their lives? I'm not sure which side has all the power and would be the one to provoke a war.
Isolate the other side from the world?
what would you call what ROC did to PRC before 1970s?
why dont you shed some tears for ML China when ROC occupied China's seat at UN security council, for some 30 years? only when table is eventually turned now you are complaining. Ha. Sorry I can not muster any sympathy.
on the missile part, sadly you are underestimating the number and intensity of firepower across the strait.
good thing is,
most of them prob for the military intervention that US promised but would prob would never come because of that "2000+ missiles", so consider that a favor because that much firepower actually will prevented a widening of the conflict. thus save Taiwanese civilians and kittys like you being accidentally caught in cross fire. hey, if you think that's crazy, that's the same rational US uses to maintaining its dominating naval-air power in western pacific... over whelming force so the otherside don't make a stupid move.
The fact is this is an unfinished civil war and you just have to deal with the fact that the government that your system produced is irresponsible and can not successfully conclude the war.
Please read the reply in its entirety. its bit rambling but good parts are essential.
....
That's what I mean when I said "the difficulties which some small minded taiwanese would not fully understand".
if ROC would won in 1949 and communists are in TW today. the same thing would happen.
Even if the island of Taiwan contained not a single soul, it would still require fascination from China.
it has nothing to do with any distraction Chinese internal issues. actually this Taiwan issues has been a huge net minus for Chinese, it expends considerable political capital for this issue where it could just gave up and make friends with US. by giving up Taiwan. If China were operating on pure interest motives it would have gave up long time ago. but. no. Why? Why do that. You don't understand because you are asking the question. right? seems illogical.
well.
because,
.....
You call yourself a Han Chinese? Right? The answer is with in you. your culture more precisely.
Chinese cultural is not only singing dancing eating food. it also included a set of Moral Norms guided by history.
One of them is: Whoever fails to make chiina whole again would be consider by history a traitor, and belong to the same class as those who kneeled before Yue Fei's Tomb in Hangzhou, in perpetual shame. I hope you know who those people were and how they are viewed by history. If any chinese leader makes a deal, they would be instantly compared with history, and their actions judged even by the simple peasant farmers in the hinterlands who may know nothing about geopolitics but knows what Yue Fei failed to do because of those traitors.
Taiwan just happen to be the last piece which Imperialists took away in modern era, and still hasn't made china whole again.
No amount of PGMs bombing or Blood would make the leaders, whoever they are, elected or not, risk being cast in knelt position and literally spit up on even 1000 years later.
You have to burned the entire historical memory out of every single chinese (essentially require either a lobotomy for the entire Chinese population or Thermonuclear war... no still couldn't ) to be able to lift that burden.
Ever watched Lord of the Ring? Frodo is that Chinese. that ring is the mission of returning China top its symbolic whole again. No matter the burden or the difficulty, the right thing must be done.
There is something to be said about the Chinese and their understanding of moral principles.
Actually Mr Chiang Kai Shiek held the same opinion and that's why on his death bed he still wants to go back and take over Mainland. On that account I consider him to be a same class as those who you can not understand why have the facsincation with taiwan. the fascination is not with taiwan, it is with making china whole again.
...
I hope you can understand this response better because I included both your Ex-President AND a hollywood blockbuster reference AND somethng from your self proclaimed cultural background. hope you can relate. best I can do.
Last edited:
Kurt
Junior Member
Naval mines distributed by fishing boats dating from around the birth of Christ. The Korean war is a nice example of that.
Please read the reply in its entirety. its bit rambling but good parts are essential.
....
That's what I mean when I said "the difficulties which some small minded taiwanese would not fully understand".
if ROC would won in 1949 and communists are in TW today. the same thing would happen.
Even if the island of Taiwan contained not a single soul, it would still require fascination from China.
Why? Why do that. You don't understand because you are asking the question. right? seems illogical.
well.
because,
.....
You call yourself a Han Chinese? Right? The answer is with in you. your culture more precisely.
Chinese cultural is not only singing dancing eating food. it also included a set of Moral Norms guided by history.
One of them is: Whoever fails to make chiina whole again would be consider by history a traitor, and belong to the same class as those who kneeled before Yue Fei's Tomb in Hangzhou, in perpetual shame. I hope you know who those people were and how they are viewed by history. If any chinese leader makes a deal, they would be instantly compared with history, and their actions judged even by the simple peasant farmers in the hinterlands who may know nothing about geopolitics but knows what Yue Fei failed to do because of those traitors.
Taiwan just happen to be the last piece which Imperialists took away in modern era, and still hasn't made china whole again.
No amount of PGMs bombing or Blood would make the leaders, whoever they are, elected or not, risk being cast in knelt position and literally spit up on even 1000 years later.
You have to burned the entire historical memory out of every single chinese (essentially require either a lobotomy for the entire Chinese population or Thermonuclear war... no still couldn't ) to be able to lift that burden.
Ever watched Lord of the Ring? Frodo is that Chinese. that ring is the mission of returning China top its symbolic whole again. No matter the burden or the difficulty, the right thing must be done.
There is something to be said about the Chinese and their understanding of moral principles.
Actually Mr Chiang Kai Shiek held the same opinion and that's why on his death bed he still wants to go back and take over Mainland. On that account I consider him to be a same class as those who you can not understand why have the facsincation with taiwan. the fascination is not with taiwan, it is with making china whole again.
...
I hope you can understand this response better because I included both your Ex-President AND a hollywood blockbuster reference AND somethng from your self proclaimed cultural background. hope you can relate. best I can do.
That feels just great, imagine, from your bedroom you can see every morning world's largest invasion force ready to occupy your hometown.
Last edited by a moderator:
Fishing boats.
You are saying the justification for USN 7th fleet is Fishing boats carrying mines.
Now what does the Chinese suppose to do now, they can't even fish now?
Last edited by a moderator:
Hey, Welcome to Eastern China,
where average citizen in any coastal City would feel the wrath of latest technological advances in aerial bombs (Mk 82s, Tomahawks, JDAMs) and may be even tactical nukes at 30 minute notice Courtesy of United States Navy and Air force. FOR the last 60 years.
Hey, deal with it. The overwhelming firepower? It is for peace.
P.S. it is really your fault if you can't doublethink.
Americans asked Chinese to do it all the time.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Kurt You should read Rand report 2009 For people interested in the RAND article check this link
RAND study: Now China wins Taiwan Straits air war
By
Stephen Trimble
on August 4, 2009 7:57 PM
Nearly 10 years after a RAND study predicted the US side easily beats China in an air war over the Taiwan Straits, the think-tank has published a new monograph online today that reverses its former opinion.
Now, a People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) bristling with a newly acquired arsenal -- including Su-27 and J-10 fighters, AA-12 and PL-12 missiles, and short-range ballistic missiles -- defeats the US side. Moreover, the PLAAF defeats the US side with or without F-22s, with or without access to Kadena Air Base in Okinawa and with or without the participation of two US carrier battle groups, according to the monograph.
RAND's analysis "suggests that a credible case can be made that the air war for Taiwan could essentially be over before much of the Blue air force has even fired a shot. Threats to Blue air bases and a more evenly matched qualitiative balance combine to paint a very troubling picture."
Personally, I would be careful to trust any military analysis that states -- on two occasions -- the US Marine Corps flies F/A-18E/Fs (... er, no, not in this lifetme). But the overall facts in RAND's air war scenario appear very persuasive, at least to this observer.
In a war over Taiwan, China may think twice about striking sovereign Japanese territory on Okinawa, or sovereign US territory on Guam. But RAND's analysts are prudent to assume that the PLAAF's strategy would seek to maximize its chances of success in a battle over the future of Taiwan.
The scenario assumes a 27:1 kill ratio for the F-22, 4.5:1 kill ratio for the F-15 and a 2.6:1 kill ratio for carrier-based F/A-18E/Fs, which seems to reflect conventional wisdom. But that's not hardly enough. By striking Kadena and Taiwan air bases with missile attacks, the PLAAF can generate 3.7 times more sorties than the blue forces. On the first day, the PLAAF loses 241 jets compared to 147 jets for the Blue forces, including one F-22. But the PLAAF still dramatically outnumbers Blue forces and wins the war of attrition.
Interestingly, the new RAND monograph is not critical at all of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Last year, John Stillon, a senior RAND analyst was fired after he put the think-tank in an awkward position. Stillon's presntation on the results of the Pacific Vision wargame, which were leaked to the press and posted on this blog, noted the F-35 "can't turn, can't climb and can't run". In the new study, RAND says "the F-22 and the still-to-come F-35 can expect to offer meaningful aircraft-on-aircraft technological advantages over what the PLAAF will bring to the fight".
Kurt
Junior Member
Thanks for this report, RAND is a manipulative body with respected scientific capabilities.
I'm not sure a ROC air force in being can be destroyed (Serbia) and as I pointed out the problem of moving military vessels on Taiwan's shore remains long enough for her allies to decide and assemble a relieve force. In my opinion a conflict between PRC and ROC will be a siege with a densely mined body of water in between them and around Taiwan. The Taiwanese can dodge most PRC airstrikes and keep their aircrafts operational, so reducing PRC ability of delivering more bombs without adequate air-cover. In essence ROC has to sit and wait, minimize damage by making a few sorties (thus PRC pilots suffer from greater stress) and offer PRC infantry the once in a lifetime opportunity to hop to the island on a naval minefield without getting their feet wet
I repeat myself since I have said all I can say about this possible conflict. It's simply so that not only China knows how to lay naval mines and these are the most potent and cheapest tool to make the whole war a long slugging match with unpredictable outcome.
It seems like the PRC population feels threatened by some American aircrafts, well, I grew up on the planned major battlefield of the Warsaw Pact - NATO conflict in Central Europe with associated nuclear bombing and was able to enjoy a happy childhood. Of course, if you want to you can add a lot more dangers to your life to worry about, like meteorites and space debris crashing down right in front of you. Where's our space defense against that, it could have killed me?
Sorry, but I've contributed my 2 cents and I see no input that convinces me to change my mind and say something new. Thanks for the discussion.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Thanks for this report, RAND is a manipulative body with respected scientific capabilities.
I'm not sure a ROC air force in being can be destroyed (Serbia) and as I pointed out the problem of moving military vessels on Taiwan's shore remains long enough for her allies to decide and assemble a relieve force. In my opinion a conflict between PRC and ROC will be a siege with a densely mined body of water in between them and around Taiwan. The Taiwanese can dodge most PRC airstrikes and keep their aircrafts operational, so reducing PRC ability of delivering more bombs without adequate air-cover. In essence ROC has to sit and wait, minimize damage by making a few sorties (thus PRC pilots suffer from greater stress) and offer PRC infantry the once in a lifetime opportunity to hop to the island on a naval minefield without getting their feet wet
I repeat myself since I have said all I can say about this possible conflict. It's simply so that not only China knows how to lay naval mines and these are the most potent and cheapest tool to make the whole war a long slugging match with unpredictable outcome.
It seems like the PRC population feels threatened by some American aircrafts, well, I grew up on the planned major battlefield of the Warsaw Pact - NATO conflict in Central Europe with associated nuclear bombing and was able to enjoy a happy childhood. Of course, if you want to you can add a lot more dangers to your life to worry about, like meteorites and space debris crashing down right in front of you. Where's our space defense against that, it could have killed me?
Sorry, but I've contributed my 2 cents and I see no input that convinces me to change my mind and say something new. Thanks for the discussion.
that is assuming the draftee in Taiwan army has stomach to fight which is not certain. Taiwan draftee is notorious for low morale and used to comfortable city life.
You only need 20 missiles to shut down and airfield And how many airfield are there? Most of Taiwan airfield are not protected. They are sitting duck on the ramp. Even US cannot be certain to win war because they only have limited number of airfield in Asia and again most of them are not hardened.
Anyway war over Taiwan will quickly spread over other Asian country. I mean Japan bases and Korea bases will certainly not spare from damage.
So when you lost all those supporting bases , the closest base in in Guam a long distance away . Bomber need tanker and fighter escort.
Although literally thousands of missiles might be needed to completely
and permanently shut down Taiwan’s air bases, about 60–200
submunition-equipped SRBMs aimed at operating surfaces would seem
to suffice to temporarily close most of Taiwan’s fighter bases. If China
can launch a single wave of this size, which seems consistent with the
number of SRBM launchers the PLA deploys, those missiles could suppress
ROCAF operations sufficiently to allow PLA Air Force (PLAAF)
strike aircraft to attack air bases and other military and industrial targets
with modern precision weapons. The result could be a Taiwan
with a profoundly reduced ability to defend itself, left open to a range
of follow-on actions intended to coerce or conquer it and its people
Last edited: