PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

i.e.

Senior Member
1.11 has nothing to do with TW.

this is just something the "frog-in-bottom-of-well" punditry in TW invented.

This is typically the date to show off / meet that deadline before the new year. in the chinese defense/aerospace industry.
apparently a healthy rivalry has developed between the aero and space side of the industry.
this year I believe it is "space" 's turn.

so a DF-21D might just be on order.
 

Hello Kitty

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Re-unification is based on the concept of one country two systems, see the position of Hong Kong. No problem there. RoC independence would not be recognized by any significant country in the world.
So the only objection to re-unification is the wish of the US to hem in PLAN. That needs the cooperation of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines. In time the US will be forced to remove its armed forces from Japan and South Korea, while all countries of East and South Asia will integrate their economies. There is not anymore a profit to be won from occupying part or all of another country as there was for Germany and France to fight over Alsace-Lorraine in former centuries so countries need not find allies to prevent this happening.

China has been the one who has shown aggression towards Taiwan and other Asian countries in the past; They are the ones currently upgrading their military, not Taiwan. It is wishful thinking to think that the other Asian countries will want the US to pull out of the South China Sea anytime soon.

Also, reunification is anything but a sure thing. You make it sound like most of the people of Taiwan can't wait to be annexed by the Mainland when the truth is 90% of Taiwanese favor either the status quo(de facto independence) or outright independence. Even if the US favored reunification, Taiwan is not one of their possessions which they can simply give to China. If China does invade Taiwan it can be viewed as being a hostile country attacking another sovereign country and not as some sort of internal dispute as some pro CCP fan boys would like to have you believe.
 

i.e.

Senior Member
China has been the one who has shown aggression towards Taiwan and other Asian countries in the past; They are the ones currently upgrading their military, not Taiwan. It is wishful thinking to think that the other Asian countries will want the US to pull out of the South China Sea anytime soon.
.



What do you call this then?

"The only other U-2 operator was the Republic of China (Taiwan), which flew missions mostly over the People's Republic of China (PRC). Since the 1950s, the Republic of China Air Force had used the RB-57A/D aircraft for reconnaissance missions over the PRC, but suffered two losses when MiG-17s and SA-2 Surface-to-Air Missiles were able to intercept the aircraft.

In 1958, ROC and American authorities reached an agreement to create the 35th Squadron, nicknamed the Black Cat Squadron, composed of two U-2Cs in Taoyuan Airbase in northern Taiwan, at an isolated part of the airbase. To create the typical misdirections at the time, the unit was created under the cover of high altitude weather research missions for ROCAF. To the US government, the 35th Squadron and any US CIA/USAF personnel assigned to the unit were known as Detachment H on all documents. But instead of being under normal USAF control, the project was known as Project RAZOR,[37][38] and was run directly by CIA with USAF assistance."

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...

or do you know that up until china inducted Su-27s in the 90s,
for the entire 1980s Japan's F-15Js were the most advanced fighter in east asia. while chinese counter part has just very limited number of J-8 daylight version. with mostly J-6s as back up.

while Japan's ADIZ line was little bit 200 miles off coast of Shanghai, with routine patrols.

or what about the huge US air bases in Kadena, Misawa, Yokota

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or what about Yokosuka Japan.
with an entire aircraft carrier battle group stationed there, plus a big chunk of Japanese navy.

Japanese-US naval and air superiority existed long before 1980s. and most of china's productive area is covered under that threat. even today not a single day goes by with out some rand type reminding People that US can unleash couple of hundred tons of precision guided conventional explosive against targets on mainland targets in any nasty eventualities.
that's not including the long standing refusal by US to adopt a no-first-use on nuclear weapons. which china openly declare to abid by and has kept only a dangerously minimum deterent.

not to mention the malaca choke hold.

Who is the war monger? who is the agressor?




If an alien was watching the whole thing from 1950 upto today, clearly what china is doing today is merely shoreing up an dangerous lag in defense that existed since 1950.
it is an reaction not an aggression.
 
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Hello Kitty

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Who is the war monger? who is the agressor?

Thank you for the reply. It was nice of you to dig through Wikipedia to find a single act of aggression on Taiwan's part from 1958. I'm quite certain that the people of Mainland China still quiver in their beds at the thought of a squadron consisting of 2 U-2Cs. I suppose that lone squadron is the reason that China is bumping and detaining foreign fishing boats in the South China Sea. I think the Dong Feng 21D is overkill for a fishing boat, is it not?

China has many problems of it's own. I mean if you go into the rural areas it is still pretty much a third world country. Even Shanghai and Beijing, the jewels of China, are littered with hovels. Annexing Taiwan will not solve China's internal problems. Can't you please leave the peaceful Taiwanese people alone? For the record, I am of Han Chinese ethnicity, but I am Taiwanese.
 
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Equation

Lieutenant General
Thank you for the reply. It was nice of you to dig through Wikipedia to find a single act of aggression on Taiwan's part from 1958. I'm quite certain that the people of Mainland China still quiver in their beds at the thought of a squadron consisting of 2 U-2Cs. I suppose that lone squadron is the reason that China is bumping and detaining foreign fishing boats in the South China Sea. I think the Dong Feng 21D is overkill for a fishing boat, is it not?

China has many problems of it's own. I mean if you go into the rural areas it is still pretty much a third world country. Even Shanghai and Beijing, the jewels of China, are littered with hovels. Annexing Taiwan will not solve China's internal problems. Can't you please leave the peaceful Taiwanese people alone? For the record, I am of Han Chinese ethnicity, but I am Taiwanese.

Do you speak for ALL ethnic Chinese or Taiwanese (when they think they're special) every time for 100% of the time? So when did you decided to join in the forum conversation, before or after most logical points has been discussed already? We're NOT at the throat of the so called "Taiwanese" people but the de facto rulers trying to maintain what little power they got left.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
China has many problems of it's own. I mean if you go into the rural areas it is still pretty much a third world country. Annexing Taiwan will not solve China's internal problems. Can't you please leave the peaceful Taiwanese people alone? For the record, I am of Han Chinese ethnicity, but I am Taiwanese.
Welcome to the Forum Hello Kitty.

I have been to Taiwan many times on business, as well as to Hong Kong and other areas in SE Asia.

I do not believe in the near future, despite the hundreds and hundreds of ballistic missiles aimed at the ROC by the PRC, that China will attempt a military conquest of the island.

1st it would be too costly and self defeating in terms of getting the type of production and economic lift the PRC would like to see as a result of reunification.

2nd, at this point the US will intervene and that makes it even more costly.

3rd, the current PRC economic growth is slowly moving the two sides towards reunification economically in any case...and they believe some form of political reunification will follow without a war.

Some of this is true as the ROC becomes more and more attached to the mainland economically.

I personally believe that the ROC has been living and acting as an independent nation since the 1950s, and a little less than half that time was recognized as such. The genie is out of the bottle and for any reunification to work, the PRC will have to move towards a more open society anyway...and I think in time that is going to happen too. Too many chinese are seeing what economic growth can mean for them personally.

So, hopefully, at some point, the PRC and ROC will be able to reunite because both people will honsetly want to. If the ROC and its people do not want to and they are forced, it will end up being military agression and tyranny and will not work out in the long run in any case IMHO. So, Taiwan should remain as strong as it possibly can, should continue to modernize on its own and with whatever help they can get from the US and others.

Hopefully the US will continue to support the liberty that the ROC does have and continue its policy of not allowing or sitting by for any use of abject military force to accomplish this.

If that is the case, then ultimately a peaceful solution should be found which will involve both nations changing to the point that enough liberty is available along with autonomy to make everyone happy with it. That's what I pray for...I have some very good freinds there.

Anyhow, in the mean time, we here on SD will continue to discuss it, and particularly to discuss the military technology that is being developed as a result.
 

Kurt

Junior Member
Bull shit

What do you call this then?

"The only other U-2 operator was the Republic of China (Taiwan), which flew missions mostly over the People's Republic of China (PRC). Since the 1950s, the Republic of China Air Force had used the RB-57A/D aircraft for reconnaissance missions over the PRC, but suffered two losses when MiG-17s and SA-2 Surface-to-Air Missiles were able to intercept the aircraft.

In 1958, ROC and American authorities reached an agreement to create the 35th Squadron, nicknamed the Black Cat Squadron, composed of two U-2Cs in Taoyuan Airbase in northern Taiwan, at an isolated part of the airbase. To create the typical misdirections at the time, the unit was created under the cover of high altitude weather research missions for ROCAF. To the US government, the 35th Squadron and any US CIA/USAF personnel assigned to the unit were known as Detachment H on all documents. But instead of being under normal USAF control, the project was known as Project RAZOR,[37][38] and was run directly by CIA with USAF assistance."

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!



...

or do you know that up until china inducted Su-27s in the 90s,
for the entire 1980s Japan's F-15Js were the most advanced fighter in east asia. while chinese counter part has just very limited number of J-8 daylight version. with mostly J-6s as back up.

while Japan's ADIZ line was little bit 200 miles off coast of Shanghai, with routine patrols.

or what about the huge US air bases in Kadena, Misawa, Yokota

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


or what about Yokosuka Japan.
with an entire aircraft carrier battle group stationed there, plus a big chunk of Japanese navy.

Japanese-US naval and air superiority existed long before 1980s. and most of china's productive area is covered under that threat. even today not a single day goes by with out some rand type reminding People that US can unleash couple of hundred tons of precision guided conventional explosive against targets on mainland targets in any nasty eventualities.
that's not including the long standing refusal by US to adopt a no-first-use on nuclear weapons. which china openly declare to abid by and has kept only a dangerously minimum deterent.

not to mention the malaca choke hold.

Who is the war monger? who is the agressor?




If an alien was watching the whole thing from 1950 upto today, clearly what china is doing today is merely shoreing up an dangerous lag in defense that existed since 1950.
it is an reaction not an aggression.

I agree that China did have a problem countering high-tech weapons of her neighbours, but you all get too focused on these high tech platforms and deem the Chinese position much better after acquiring compareable weapons. The Chinese have their assassin's mace as quite a feared concept for anyone who tries to interfere in their internal affairs. Especially the Korean War shows in my opinion what Chinese could achieve with rather limited means. Unfortunately for them, asymmetric warfare works both ways. If China massively improves her high tech arms sector Japa and the USA will resort to assassin's mace to maintain their own hold of power in the region. This makes things rather not a showdown of latest inventions, but an intertwined consideration of repercussions and opportunities through which politics have to navigate.
 

i.e.

Senior Member
Thank you for the reply. It was nice of you to dig through Wikipedia to find a single act of aggression on Taiwan's part from 1958. I'm quite certain that the people of Mainland China still quiver in their beds at the thought of a squadron consisting of 2 U-2Cs. I suppose that lone squadron is the reason that China is bumping and detaining foreign fishing boats in the South China Sea. I think the Dong Feng 21D is overkill for a fishing boat, is it not?

Up to the 1970s TW was routinely a launching base for recon flights over coastal china.
Kissenger has the sense to scale the nonesense back.

even today US has a big siginit prescence in TW aimed at mainland china. The military alliance with US is a overt existential threat to peace and security of Eastern Chinese seaboard. that is a cold hard fact.

China's internal problem is China's burden to bare. One of which is the historic burden of Territorial integrity of china, which no responsible government in china would ignore.

If a Taiwanese asks mainland Chinese to respect their peace. then It wouldn't be too much to ask Taiwanese to respectful to the fact that The Chinese today are bearing that historical burden, something that any historically aware chinese understood that the "Taiwanese" has chosen to avoid to share that burden; the difficulties which some small minded taiwanese would not fully understand; and to which no small part was due to Taiwan's peculiar position in history. (and no small part by Uncle Sam's Meddling, in somepeople's opinion)

I hope you understand my carefully chosen words.
 
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i.e.

Senior Member
I agree that China did have a problem countering high-tech weapons of her neighbours, but you all get too focused on these high tech platforms and deem the Chinese position much better after acquiring compareable weapons. The Chinese have their assassin's mace as quite a feared concept for anyone who tries to interfere in their internal affairs. Especially the Korean War shows in my opinion what Chinese could achieve with rather limited means. Unfortunately for them, asymmetric warfare works both ways. If China massively improves her high tech arms sector Japa and the USA will resort to assassin's mace to maintain their own hold of power in the region. This makes things rather not a showdown of latest inventions, but an intertwined consideration of repercussions and opportunities through which politics have to navigate.

What was Chinese naval "assassin's mace" during 1970s? which its biggest destroyers were the 16 HY-2 carrying Luda boats which is basically a 1970s version of 1950s soviet technology.

What was chinese airforce's "assassin's mace" during 1970s? that handful of Mig-21-F13s and even less number of daylight J-8s? or those 1950s J-6s?

don't blow this up more than necessary.

or in the 80s for that fact. or the 90s.

the entire 80s PLAN built... nothing.... while USN was building tics and Japan was putting finishing touches on its 8-8 fleet.
PLAAF in the 80s got bit more J-8s and J-7s, that is it. While Japan has F-15Js

90s weren't better either for PLAN. 2 (TWO) type 052As, a 4500 ton ASW destroyer.
while Japan got kongos and Burkes were procreating like rabbits.

2000s were the turning point, but still a trickle of truly capable ships
4xSovs and 1 more 051B, and the 052B/Cs . that;s still less than 1 ship a year.
 
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i.e.

Senior Member
I for one do not underestimate the stupidity of people.

so I gloomily think a war is not that improbable, even today. given what I know and given what I think some stupid people are capable of.

I just hope those that truly has power understand the power they weld, and act with kindness and consideration for the longer run.
 
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