PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Bltizo said:

I see no incentive for the US to declare war against China in the next 20 years, unless the incentive is that the US realizes they will be in a far weaker position (militarily, economically, politically) post 2030 against china and thus want to act now to ensure it's place as the top dog in the world. But even that would be supremely unlikely and irresponsible.
I doubt any sane state actor would want to put their country into war to reap the meagre spoils of war which they are not necessarily guaranteed to win... and even then you'll expect losses the public most likely wouldn't be able to stomach.

But this is all an aside. Clearly the US isn't seeking war, and at the very least I do not see or forsee circumstances in which they would pursue that path deliberately.

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You might rethink your position, both Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan planned war in order to gain the spoils. Especially the Nazi regime was from the start financed by industrialists who made great profits by disowning other people, strange thing is that the guys who became rich through the acts of the Third Reich are still owning and leading German industry and finance (). The idea of disowning others in the future was the basis of the Mefo credits the Nazis used to finance their programms from the start . These credits enabled them to quickly produce a very modern equipped military that gave them a quality edge over the powers they were intent to defeat that had a far superior economy. So what you claim would be insane has been done and probably failed only by inches.
Economic connections never were a hindrance for going to war (the US for example owned much industry in Germany and guess what, they bombed their "own factories"). You miss the effect of war economy and the flush of money on debt.
The current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are quite costly because they were about creating political systems almost from scratch and making these countries work according to new US defined rules. The result would have been much cheaper if the US was content with some new dictators that sell them the natural resources. So the high price is paid for creating a fellow political system that is usually allied or sympathetic to your cause while a dictator can more easily switch sides.

Assessing the Chinese military expenditure is difficult and under much debate, but looking at their confirmed hardware, they seem number 2 after the US and do have the capability to scale up production of modern equipment whenever required as well as have the people to handle it. In this sense China is a security risk for the US because they could oppose them or alter the global system with a few years of determined effort. The current Chinese military is rather capable of defending Chinese interests.

the only place where we can have a "war" between china and US in the next few decades is taiwan.but in the next two or three decades china will not attack taiwan.

Remember for now PLA will no go to war to reunifite taiwan but will go to war to prevent taiwan independance. as taiwan is not going to declare independance china will no do anything to invite a "possible" US intervention.

When china reach it targets in economic and military strenght then we can talk about a possible war in cross strait

This is an opinion article in the NY Times about Taiwan's future role. President Ma Ying-jeou’s May 2008 declaration of “no unification, no independence, and no use of force” can turn into a major problem for the current political structure of the PRC because it contains a systemic challenge without giving up an inch of self-determined gouvernment. The economic intertwining means increased contact and knowledge of each other's system. Tiny Taiwan could end up conquering China by example. On the other hand, the same could possibly be said about Hong-Kong and Macao.

kurt's article said:

Authoritarian China now finds itself uncomfortably strained as inland provinces are struggling for economic growth while urban areas are boldly stretching out to explore the boundaries of political control, forcing the Communist Party to experiment with limited reforms.

Herein lies Taiwan’s new value. While China’s economic influence on Taiwan is growing, many in China find Taiwan’s experience with democratization, warts and all, instructive. Long resentful of prevalent corruption at home, they have watched Taiwan tackle corruption within its government, even at the highest levels. They have seen how successfully Taiwan combined modernity with Chinese traditions. And they have observed how Taiwan’s people freely express their will through noisy public discussion and regular elections. Last month, debates among Taiwan’s presidential candidates were even carried by social media inside China.

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LMAO, this is too funny.

Kurt said:

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This is an opinion article in the NY Times about Taiwan's future role. President Ma Ying-jeou’s May 2008 declaration of “no unification, no independence, and no use of force” can turn into a major problem for the current political structure of the PRC because it contains a systemic challenge without giving up an inch of self-determined gouvernment. The economic intertwining means increased contact and knowledge of each other's system. Tiny Taiwan could end up conquering China by example. On the other hand, the same could possibly be said about Hong-Kong and Macao.

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People separated by 50 years of separation need time to adjust that is understood.That is the reason China give leeway to Hongkong and Macau by allowing them to maintain their system of government for 50 years. China has their hand full just trying to increase the living standard of 800 milion people in the next 20 years.

Politic normally follow economy and the destiny of Taiwan a small island with limited market is tied to China no doubt about it


The idea that China will become more democratic because interaction with Hongkong or Taiwan is ridiculous. Most Chinese tourist are not impressed by the Taiwan cities,food or anything .They a re there just there as tourist..not political pilgrimage

They come home even more convinced of China greatness

Kurt said:

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This is an opinion article in the NY Times about Taiwan's future role. President Ma Ying-jeou’s May 2008 declaration of “no unification, no independence, and no use of force” can turn into a major problem for the current political structure of the PRC because it contains a systemic challenge without giving up an inch of self-determined gouvernment. The economic intertwining means increased contact and knowledge of each other's system. Tiny Taiwan could end up conquering China by example. On the other hand, the same could possibly be said about Hong-Kong and Macao.

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OR VICE VERSA. Who wants to see this chaos happening in their government?

solarz said:

LMAO, this is too funny.

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Not only that, if one goes to places like Chinasmack.com the mainland posters are already very savvy dealing with this sort of propaganda piece by the western media. Since interaction is not a one-way street my own view is that convergence will occur in the long term.

Obviously people like Kurt and authors of above articles didn;t remember or wasn't aware of 2008.
wishful thinking with out a shred of connection to reality on the ground.

Kurt said:

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This is an opinion article in the NY Times about Taiwan's future role. President Ma Ying-jeou’s May 2008 declaration of “no unification, no independence, and no use of force” can turn into a major problem for the current political structure of the PRC because it contains a systemic challenge without giving up an inch of self-determined gouvernment. The economic intertwining means increased contact and knowledge of each other's system. Tiny Taiwan could end up conquering China by example. On the other hand, the same could possibly be said about Hong-Kong and Macao.

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Clearly a fully democratic china is inevitabe if not imminent. Chinese citizens will recognize the superiority of democracy as demonstrated from the likes of europe, america, taiwan, japan and india and the proliferation of the internet will only rally and enlighten people, young and old alike against the authoritarian CCP.
The central government must be shaking in its boots at this worrying development and political analysts suggest we may see the people's republic use its PLA to become more assertive in the south china sea region to sway public opinion from criticizing the government to become more outwardly nationalistic and thus justify the CCP's existence.



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Now that we've had our little fun, let's steer back to safer military talk.

i read this article somewhere else

people who are not intimate with China will think of it as a well a written kind of revelation, and will do the hmm yes, yes nod nod thing

the truth and reality is far from it, a laughable propaganda piece at its best, i find it laughable, and finished the article with a grin on my face