PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
There are statistics that are showing that a “Taiwan National Identity” is extremely weak
1. Inability to recruit a volunteer army
2. Obvious brain drain to mainland China

It’s great that surveys are showing more people are consider themselves “Taiwanese” only, but this is virtue signalling only.
 
O

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
HighGround said:
It's difficult to tell just how many will actively engage in terrorism, but I think the number of "hard-core" Taiwanese who are anti-PRC will be very high. The Taliban was a small group, but they had a lot of local help.

Who do you think will provide shelter to terrorists? Fund them? Give them information?

People who are very much anti-PRC, but don't have the bravery to take up the guns. There'll be lots of those IMO.
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China is probably the number 1 country in the world on dealing with terrorism/resistance/unrest. America's performance the last decades, compared with Chinese performance, is like night and day. There is no comparison


Putting the above aside, successful insurgencies require foreign support/supplies. How is this so-called Taiwanese resistance going to be supplied with when the PLA sets up radars, and positions forces in such a way that it has around the clock coverage of the Taiwanese waters and coast line?


Thinking that Taiwanese insurgency will be of significant scale is dubious enough, thinking that it will also be successful and won't be put down by the PAP in a few months/years, is a fantasy
 
lcloo

lcloo

Captain
One of the most effective peace time startegy for PRC is to strengthen people to people contact between Mainlanders and Taiwain residents. It is true that Taiwain regime has change the history text book so much that most of the young people have no idea where their fore fathers came from, and even as extreme as not knowing or conviniently forgeting that their island is being governed under the name of Republic of China 中华民国.

PRC should double up in providing scholarships, discounted education fees and even free education to attract the young Taiwanese over to Mainland, so that these young people can discover by themselves their true family roots, true history of RoC etc.

Education plays important role in people's nationalistic sentiment. The fraud foreign Western controlled educational system of Hong Kong has practically brained washed the young residents to go against China in so much that they refused to identify themselves as Chinese and refused to attend and sit for pudonghua exminations in some universities.

Education is a very powerful weapon without gun powder.
 
S

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
lcloo said:
One of the most effective peace time startegy for PRC is to strengthen people to people contact between Mainlanders and Taiwain residents. It is true that Taiwain regime has change the history text book so much that most of the young people have no idea where their fore fathers came from, and even as extreme as not knowing or conviniently forgeting that their island is being governed under the name of Republic of China 中华民国.

PRC should double up in providing scholarships, discounted education fees and even free education to attract the young Taiwanese over to Mainland, so that these young people can discover by themselves their true family roots, true history of RoC etc.

Education plays important role in people's nationalistic sentiment. The fraud foreign Western controlled educational system of Hong Kong has practically brained washed the young residents to go against China in so much that they refused to identify themselves as Chinese and refused to attend and sit for pudonghua exminations in some universities.

Education is a very powerful weapon without gun powder.
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They already basically do that. The tuitions are cheaper, the post graduation opportunities are greater.

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Those HKers who do that are a very small minority. Again, more and more HKers are attending mainland universities as well.

There are also a lot of entrepreneurial incentives for young Taiwanese in the mainland that the island can’t match. A lot of the tech startups involve Taiwanese for this reason. Some of the more esoteric tech niches like mechanical keyboards have grown due to this incentive. I don’t have hard statistics on that, but I have no reason to doubt it (I used to see Made in Taiwan a lot, and now it’s mostly Made in China)

The only “danger” is that I believe over time, you are basically leaving a bigger and bigger concentration of zealots. Part of the issue with the 2019 HK riots.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
supersnoop said:
They already basically do that. The tuitions are cheaper, the post graduation opportunities are greater.

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Those HKers who do that are a very small minority. Again, more and more HKers are attending mainland universities as well.

There are also a lot of entrepreneurial incentives for young Taiwanese in the mainland that the island can’t match. A lot of the tech startups involve Taiwanese for this reason. Some of the more esoteric tech niches like mechanical keyboards have grown due to this incentive. I don’t have hard statistics on that, but I have no reason to doubt it (I used to see Made in Taiwan a lot, and now it’s mostly Made in China)

The only “danger” is that I believe over time, you are basically leaving a bigger and bigger concentration of zealots. Part of the issue with the 2019 HK riots.
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If we accept that in an electoral democracy 'political power comes from the people', then in a democratic society with conscription, are there any actual civilians? Technically speaking they're simply disarmed conscription reserves and reserve political leaders. It can be argued that none of them enjoy any civilian status protection.
 
M

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
HighGround said:
Okay, but that's a totally different situation. German-Americans weren't occupied.

In an event of an AR, this will be a war. I'm not going to get into who's right and who's wrong, but PRC troops will be invading Taiwan and imposing their will on Taiwan. Many of the people they are occupying believe that they are being unjustly invaded and see PRC as invaders, occupiers, and looters.

Now how many will actively resist, or if they will resist is an open question. I've already explained my position pretty well I think. A tiny minority of people who will support an insurgency, and an even tinier minority of people who will actually be the insurgency, is still a large number of people who can cause quite a bit of havoc.

This might be the case, especially in an event of a protracted war with United States. I think Taiwan's military and Taiwan itself can fall and be occupied relatively shortly, but a war with United States and whoever decides to join, may last for many more months.

In that period, between when Taiwan's military is defeated, but when the wider war is not yet over, I believe will provide the greatest incentive for a potential insurgency, that could very well inflict serious setbacks for PRC's "occupation" of Taiwan.
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It depends a lot on what political system China would announce for Taiwan. Direct communist rule might be a bit too much. But if it's another 50 year transition period, people will look at Hong Kong and say that maybe they'd prefer "democracy" but it's not worth losing your job and home for and despite the national security law, life in Hong Kong continues as normal. But this is really a problem for after a war.

Sure there'll be some unhappy civilians immediately after a quick takeover of the island, but a civilian insurgency is a long term problem. In the short term, there'd be many former ROC soldiers who go underground and continue fighting. The Israeli way to deal with that type of problem is to target the families of terrorists.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Minm said:
It depends a lot on what political system China would announce for Taiwan. Direct communist rule might be a bit too much. But if it's another 50 year transition period, people will look at Hong Kong and say that maybe they'd prefer "democracy" but it's not worth losing your job and home for and despite the national security law, life in Hong Kong continues as normal. But this is really a problem for after a war.

Sure there'll be some unhappy civilians immediately after a quick takeover of the island, but a civilian insurgency is a long term problem. In the short term, there'd be many former ROC soldiers who go underground and continue fighting. The Israeli way to deal with that type of problem is to target the families of terrorists.
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no way. They are legally speaking a regime on par with ISIS. Just like ISIS, they're an armed regime that seized control of a territory that they tax with force. The reason that ISIS is not considered a legitimate state is because of their crimes. It would be irrelevant if ISIS elected their caliph or not.

Here's a select few of their crimes post 1949:

1.
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2.
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3.
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4.
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5.
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sr338

sr338

New Member
Registered Member
Minm said:
China is getting tons of sanctions anyway. That's not a deterrent

China could probably recover Taiwan today and defeat any US attempts to stop that, but China isn't strong enough to push them out of Japan and Korea etc. So a small war only gets you Taiwan and far more American troops in Asia. Superpowers can lose a battle and adapt to get stronger. The US didn't stop being a superpower after the withdrawal from Vietnam or Afghanistan either

If China has to win a major Pacific war, more preparation is needed. Maybe in the late 2030s
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Yes, my point is that Taiwan itself is to that important target, that China's goal should be to wipe out US bases in Asia and defeat the USN in the Pacific. If USN suffers a large defeat around Taiwan ( losing 2-3 CSG and have it's Asian bases wiped out for example), it would push the US out of Asia at least.

Taiwan is just a symbolic target without that much value vs the cost to get it, I don't like symbolic victory.
 
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