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PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
What's more important than ratios is what Taiwan's population is like. Hong Kong had no pro-Beijing people until riots beyond a handful of socialists.
Taiwan's integration will be easier than Hong Kong's. There is no dialect barrier and no ~150 years of colonial influence. There are still some old people who identify as Chinese (I mean of the same nationality as the mainlanders). There won't be joint declarations that prevent China from implementing economic measures that appease the middle class. These were not true with Hong Kong. Some hardcore DPP fans exist, but similar types of people existed in Hong Kong too.
I think you underestimate how powerful forces of indoctrination are, especially on young people. Entire generations have grown and been educated by their own government, and Western media to hate PRC. In my opinion, anyone under the age of 30, is likely to be very much anti-PRC and very much pro-independence.
From experience, there is a very strong difference between Ukrainians who are younger than 40 and older than 40. Guess which ones tend to be far more anti-Russia and nationalist? The lessons we are taught when we are young, tend to have a very strong influence on how we perceive the world as we grow older. Some reject it, but most tend to go along with it and die with it.
But that's just my opinion.
China is getting tons of sanctions anyway. That's not a deterrent
China could probably recover Taiwan today and defeat any US attempts to stop that, but China isn't strong enough to push them out of Japan and Korea etc. So a small war only gets you Taiwan and far more American troops in Asia. Superpowers can lose a battle and adapt to get stronger. The US didn't stop being a superpower after the withdrawal from Vietnam or Afghanistan either
If China has to win a major Pacific war, more preparation is needed. Maybe in the late 2030s
It's not just "tons of sanctions". It'll be either a renewal or a changing of the world order. Either way, it's a good bet that the global economy will be forever changed and that'll hurt people in every country, including China.
Should a major war break out in the Pacific, it'll be the defining conflict of my generation, perhaps even this century.
Taiwanese are different to Ukrainians. There is no comparison in mindset.I think you underestimate how powerful forces of indoctrination are, especially on young people. Entire generations have grown and been educated by their own government, and Western media to hate PRC. In my opinion, anyone under the age of 30, is likely to be very much anti-PRC and very much pro-independence.
From experience, there is a very strong difference between Ukrainians who are younger than 40 and older than 40. Guess which ones tend to be far more anti-Russia and nationalist? The lessons we are taught when we are young, tend to have a very strong influence on how we perceive the world as we grow older. Some reject it, but most tend to go along with it and die with it.
But that's just my opinion.
It's not just "tons of sanctions". It'll be either a renewal or a changing of the world order. Either way, it's a good bet that the global economy will be forever changed and that'll hurt people in every country, including China.
Should a major war break out in the Pacific, it'll be the defining conflict of my generation, perhaps even this century.
If America decided to set up a military base in the Ukraine the Ukrainians would be celebrating, it would be like winning the lottery for them. Virtually no one would be in favour of that in Taiwan. Look at how Japanese or South Koreans view the American military bases.
That's not really what I was addressing though.Taiwanese are different to Ukrainians. There is no comparison in mindset.
If America decided to set up a military base in the Ukraine the Ukrainians would be celebrating, it would be like winning the lottery for them. Virtually no one would be in favour of that in Taiwan. Look at how Japanese or South Koreans view the American military bases.
The comment I replied to was addressing how many Taiwanese are pro or anti reunification. You can entirely be super anti-PRC and still vote against DPP or any military base.
But it is. Taiwan isn't third world, people have more important things to worry about.That's not really what I was addressing though.
The comment I replied to was addressing how many Taiwanese are pro or anti reunification. You can entirely be super anti-PRC and still vote against DPP or any military base.
I don't really understand your point, or how it addresses mine to be honest.But it is. Taiwan isn't third world, people have more important things to worry about.
So they are realist, in other words, when Taiwan gets taken back, they won't really be fighting back hard, at least the majority of them, the minority who do will learn things the hard way.That's not really what I was addressing though.
The comment I replied to was addressing how many Taiwanese are pro or anti reunification. You can entirely be super anti-PRC and still vote against DPP or any military base.
It's difficult to tell just how many will actively engage in terrorism, but I think the number of "hard-core" Taiwanese who are anti-PRC will be very high. The Taliban was a small group, but they had a lot of local help.So they are realist, in other words, when Taiwan gets taken back, they won't really be fighting back hard, at least the majority of them, the minority who do will learn things the hard way.
Who do you think will provide shelter to terrorists? Fund them? Give them information?
People who are very much anti-PRC, but don't have the bravery to take up the guns. There'll be lots of those IMO.
The people of failed states and countries that are poor like Ukraine tend to invest a lot more in false concepts of nationalism than more developed one. Whether someone in Taiwan calls themselves "pro unification" or "pro independence" isn't a useful benchmark of how they would receive reunification. When the time comes, all will happily go along with unification as long as it doesn't impact their quality of life.I don't really understand your point, or how it addresses mine to be honest.
It's like when Hong Kong was returned. The only problem the HKers had wasn't China taking over, but the prospect of mass migration of poorer mainlanders.
You are also peddling the false CIA narrative that somehow young people are more pro-globalist. It's not true in the Ukraine, Taiwan or Iran for that matter. America would have a lot less influence around the world if the boomers died off.
For the overall 20 million population, that so-called 'hard-core' part will be a minority.It's difficult to tell just how many will actively engage in terrorism, but I think the number of "hard-core" Taiwanese who are anti-PRC will be very high. The Taliban was a small group, but they had a lot of local help.
Who do you think will provide shelter to terrorists? Fund them? Give them information?
People who are very much anti-PRC, but don't have the bravery to take up the guns. There'll be lots of those IMO.
If they don't die in actually fighting the PLA, they will either flee/move to another country or get thrown in jail, the more vocal and active ones.
The rest are gonna become inactive and basically useless/not do much/anything.