PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
It's difficult to tell just how many will actively engage in terrorism, but I think the number of "hard-core" Taiwanese who are anti-PRC will be very high. The Taliban was a small group, but they had a lot of local help.

Who do you think will provide shelter to terrorists? Fund them? Give them information?

People who are very much anti-PRC, but don't have the bravery to take up the guns. There'll be lots of those IMO.
Now you're comparing Taiwanese to the Taliban. LOL.

Stop fantasising and worry about your own countries upcoming civil war.
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
The people of failed states and countries that are poor like Ukraine tend to invest a lot more in false concepts of nationalism than more developed one. Whether someone in Taiwan calls themselves "pro unification" or "pro independence" isn't a useful benchmark of how they would receive reunification. When the time comes, all will happily go along with unification as long as it doesn't impact their quality of life.

It's like when Hong Kong was returned. The only problem the HKers had wasn't China taking over, but the prospect of mass migration of poorer mainlanders.

This is false. Unless the definition of "failed state" is every state that's not China.

Nationalism or resurgence of nationalism can arise for a number of different reasons. Germany alone rode the wave of nationalism as

A) A rising power
B) A defeated power
C) As a stagnating power

So no, it's not limited to failed states. It can occur in any country due to a multitude of reasons. In fact, American nationalism, tended to peak as a consequence of economic growth and military success, rather than any kind of decline.

You are also peddling the false CIA narrative that somehow young people are more pro-globalist. It's not true in the Ukraine, Taiwan or Iran for that matter. America would have a lot less influence around the world if the boomers died off.
It's not a CIA narrative lol and it doesn't have anything to do with "young people" because they are "young". It has to do with indoctrination.

Young people in Russia are very much pro-Russia, because that's who educating them.

What do you think an Anti-PRC regime in Taiwan is teach children in school? In college? In newspapers? Or has been teaching them for the last 20 years?
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
This is false. Unless the definition of "failed state" is every state that's not China.

Nationalism or resurgence of nationalism can arise for a number of different reasons. Germany alone rode the wave of nationalism as

A) A rising power
B) A defeated power
C) As a stagnating power

So no, it's not limited to failed states. It can occur in any country due to a multitude of reasons. In fact, American nationalism, tended to peak as a consequence of economic growth and military success, rather than any kind of decline.
Germany was a failed state when the Nazis emerged, see the Weimar Republic. Now that Germany is failing again the Nazis are becoming popular there again. As is the case in America.

No, I don't think all states are failed. Mostly eastern Europe and some former USSR states. Western Europe and America are increasingly becoming failed states, but there is still time to stop the decline.
What do you think an Anti-PRC regime in Taiwan is teach children in school? In college? In newspapers? Or has been teaching them for the last 20 years?
In Taiwanese schools they teach them maths, science actual useful things, not whatever you think happens..

They don't spend all day teaching them mainland bad, America good. Although I'm sure that's what America wants, by a male teacher wearing make up and a dress.

You aren't saying which former USSR state you are from but I can tell it's not an Asian one as you haven't the faintest clue about Asian culture or society.
 

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
In Taiwanese schools they teach them maths, science actual useful things, not whatever you think happens..

They don't spend all day teaching them mainland bad, America good. Although I'm sure that's what America wants, by a male teacher wearing make up and a dress.

You aren't saying which former USSR state you are from but I can tell it's not an Asian one as you haven't the faintest clue about Asian culture or society.
They do. It's part of their historical curriculum, and history is one of the core subjects of a minor's education. I read this post on Quora that Taiwan is subtly sepersting Taiwan from mainland China into its own national and even cultural identity:
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In short, all I can say is this: if China plans to reunify Taiwan, in military terms, the battlefield needs to be prepared. That means Taiwan and it's most poweful allies must have their economies severely degraded while China continues to rise. This will destroy Taiwan's and it's allies', particularly the US's, ability to build up their armed forces. China must build up its military to defeat Taiwan's allies and maintain a no fly zone over Taiwan. The Chinese should not carry the Pan-Asian and "Chinese don't kill Chinese " mentalities as both are just outright naive to begin with and instead should carry out what it must do to totally win a war. Finally, they must have courage to act despite the risks. There is no such thing as a free lunch.
 
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HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
Germany was a failed state when the Nazis emerged, see the Weimar Republic. Now that Germany is failing again the Nazis are becoming popular there again. As is the case in America.

Yeah? Was Germany a
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in 1871? How about
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?

No, I don't think all states are failed. Mostly eastern Europe and some former USSR states. Western Europe and America are increasingly becoming failed states, but there is still time to stop the decline.

In Taiwanese schools they teach them maths, science actual useful things, not whatever you think happens..

They don't spend all day teaching them mainland bad, America good. Although I'm sure that's what America wants, by a male teacher wearing make up and a dress.

You aren't saying which former USSR state you are from but I can tell it's not an Asian one as you haven't the faintest clue about Asian culture or society.

Lol, I'm Korean.

For people who might be confused.

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siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
People overestimate the will to fight b.s. Let’s not talk about DPP and just focus on this forum. We have many Wumaos here. How many of us are actually willing to go to federal prison if saying Wumao stuff is a federal offense? I’m willing to bet very few. Now change that to being sent to the frontlines and die for your beliefs. I’m guessing even fewer.

At the end of the day most people are willing to maintain some semblance to the status quo and continue living their miserable little lives. Ukrainians actually have the will to fight, yet they still require pretty brutal recruitment methods of late just to maintain enough soldiers on the frontline. What makes you think that Taiwan would fair better than Ukraine given what we know about the attitude of general populace about enlistment?
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
People overestimate the will to fight b.s. Let’s not talk about DPP and just focus on this forum. We have many Wumaos here. How many of us are actually willing to go to federal prison if saying Wumao stuff is a federal offense? I’m willing to bet very few. Now change that to being sent to the frontlines and die for your beliefs. I’m guessing even fewer.

There's few who will take up guns and become an insurgent. But picking up a gun, and sending cash, food, or offering shelter to insurgents is a totally different proposition. Very few.

But let's put it in numbers. Let's say only 2% of the population will actually participate in dissident actions. Like giving food, money, or shelter.

That's 400,000 people. Let's say 10% of those will take up arms. That's 40,000 people. With a logistical back-end of 360,000.

It's a fairly small part of the population, very small, but nonetheless a large number that can do a lot to make life hard.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
People overestimate the will to fight b.s. Let’s not talk about DPP and just focus on this forum. We have many Wumaos here. How many of us are actually willing to go to federal prison if saying Wumao stuff is a federal offense? I’m willing to bet very few. Now change that to being sent to the frontlines and die for your beliefs. I’m guessing even fewer.

At the end of the day most people are willing to maintain some semblance to the status quo and continue living their miserable little lives. Ukrainians actually have the will to fight, yet they still require pretty brutal recruitment methods of late just to maintain enough soldiers on the frontline. What makes you think that Taiwan would fair better than Ukraine given what we know about the attitude of general populace about enlistment?
This is easily provable too, because there was precedent. There were tons of Imperial and Nazi Germany supporters in the US.
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Back in WW1,
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, and guess what? German American identity got crippled. In WW2 there was a small comeback among German Americans. There were
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Some
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Where are German Americans now? Cultural gen.o.cide during WW1 and WW2 destroyed their unique identity. They're the statistically least prideful ethnicity in the US and are 100% assimilated. There's memorials to Polish, Lithuanian, Chinese, immigrants, even Japanese immigrants... but not Germans. Today in Germany itself they have even less pride in being German and saying you are proud of being German makes people look at you like a Nazi.
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
This is easily provable too, because there was precedent. There were tons of Imperial and Nazi Germany supporters in the US.
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Back in WW1,
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, and guess what? German American identity got crippled. In WW2 there was a small comeback among German Americans. There were
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Some
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Where are German Americans now? Cultural gen.o.cide during WW1 and WW2 destroyed their unique identity. They're the statistically least prideful ethnicity in the US and are 100% assimilated. There's memorials to Polish, Lithuanian, Chinese, immigrants, even Japanese immigrants... but not Germans. Today in Germany itself they have even less pride in being German and saying you are proud of being German makes people look at you like a Nazi.

Okay, but that's a totally different situation. German-Americans weren't occupied.

In an event of an AR, this will be a war. I'm not going to get into who's right and who's wrong, but PRC troops will be invading Taiwan and imposing their will on Taiwan. Many of the people they are occupying believe that they are being unjustly invaded and see PRC as invaders, occupiers, and looters.

Now how many will actively resist, or if they will resist is an open question. I've already explained my position pretty well I think. A tiny minority of people who will support an insurgency, and an even tinier minority of people who will actually be the insurgency, is still a large number of people who can cause quite a bit of havoc.

This might be the case, especially in an event of a protracted war with United States. I think Taiwan's military and Taiwan itself can fall and be occupied relatively shortly, but a war with United States and whoever decides to join, may last for many more months.

In that period, between when Taiwan's military is defeated, but when the wider war is not yet over, I believe will provide the greatest incentive for a potential insurgency, that could very well inflict serious setbacks for PRC's "occupation" of Taiwan.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Okay, but that's a totally different situation. German-Americans weren't occupied.

In an event of an AR, this will be a war. I'm not going to get into who's right and who's wrong, but PRC troops will be invading Taiwan and imposing their will on Taiwan. Many of the people they are occupying believe that they are being unjustly invaded and see PRC as invaders, occupiers, and looters.

Now how many will actively resist, or if they will resist is an open question. I've already explained my position pretty well I think. A tiny minority of people who will support an insurgency, and an even tinier minority of people who will actually be the insurgency, is still a large number of people who can cause quite a bit of havoc.

This might be the case, especially in an event of a protracted war with United States. I think Taiwan's military and Taiwan itself can fall and be occupied relatively shortly, but a war with United States and whoever decides to join, may last for many more months.

In that period, between when Taiwan's military is defeated, but when the wider war is not yet over, I believe will provide the greatest incentive for a potential insurgency, that could very well inflict serious setbacks for PRC's "occupation" of Taiwan.
there are ways of solving this problem without resorting to extreme brutality that unfortunately seems to be the go-to option for other countries faced with insurgency. I believe that extreme brutality will backfire and that it is possible to repeat the wide popular support the PLA enjoyed when kicking the ROC regime out the first time.

the reality of war is that it will be difficult to resupply an island with food and fuel continuously. but there's plenty of food and fuel in mainland China. Encourage civilians to leave Taiwan for mainland China where they'll be diluted among the large loyal population. They won't have the capability to resist since they'll be spread out and have no popular support. The hardcore resistance on the other hand will be concentrated in Taiwan due to their own prejudice where they're monitored.

Given the choice between being caught in the crossfire while starving, in the dark and in Taiwan - a humid tropical island - with no AC, wouldn't it be wise for them to pack up and go to China?
 
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