PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

5unrise said:

I am really glad that CSIS 'experts' and 'analysts' are using Youtube video as a source for the capabilities of naval forces of the principal combatants. Are these guys really being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars (big bucks) to sit and watch youtube? Expertise on display right here!

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You should start a think tank. I can already see the $$$ avalanche rolling towards you.

Some compromises might be needed though, Americans only pay top dollar if you produce content that soothes their anxieties, if you get my meaning. Maybe something to keep in mind for the next video..

5unrise said:

I am really glad that CSIS 'experts' and 'analysts' are using Youtube video as a source for the capabilities of naval forces of the principal combatants. Are these guys really being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars (big bucks) to sit and watch youtube? Expertise on display right here!

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Well, at least CSIS acknowledged your contribution to their report.

I think one of the most glaring errors that many US "experts" make is that China intends to launch an invasion as soon as possible.
But the short, medium and long-term trends actually all favour China.

For example, if you look at the latest World Bank 2023 growth estimates published last week and crunch the numbers, they're saying China will grow more than the rest of the world combined in 2023.

How on earth does that square with their belief that China is in economic decline and must launch a war as soon as possible?

And given that China is becoming hi-tech in pretty much every area, that will likely power them past the middle-income trap.
A China that matches US income levels would have 4x the population and economic heft.

abenomics12345 said:

Need this, but for Taiwan Strait Crisis Tourists. Crowdsourcing ideas/quotes.

My nominations:

- Tom Clancy
- Ian Easton
- Sub Brief
- Moses_the_red

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WILL
Of course that's your contention. You're a taiwan strait crisis tourist. You just finished some Cold War ASW fiction, Tom Clancy prob'ly, and so naturally that's what you believe until next month when you get to Ian Easton and get convinced that there will be a million man swim across the strait without any preparation.

That'll last until sometime in your second year, then you'll be in here regurgitating moses_the_red about the backwardness of the....
(Well, as a matter of fact, I won't, because moses_the_red drastically underestimates the capability of--)

WILL

"...moses_the_red drastically underestimates the capability of the PLAN/PLAAF to generate 'salivating' salvos of precision fires, especially with PHL-16..." You got that from "@PLAOpsOsint," from Twitter, right? Do you have any thoughts of your own on the subject or were you just gonna plagiarize the whole OSINT community for me?

I like that assumption. "We don't know if this missile can be used against ship, I'm just going to assume yes because we have a lot of it and they're awesome".

The report really tries to sell massed JASSM-ER as a war winning wunderwaffe, which then makes me recall something we saw displayed this year at Zhuhai:

Well this is awkward

Temstar said:

View attachment 104970
I like that assumption. "We don't know if this missile can be used against ship, I'm just going to assume yes because we have a lot of it and they're awesome".

The report really tries to sell massed JASSM-ER as a war winning wunderwaffe, which then makes me recall something we saw displayed this year at Zhuhai:

Well this is awkward

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They assumed PLAAF doesn’t exist.

Patchwork_Chimera said:

This is powerful. I am extremely impressed.

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Replacing moses_the_red with CSIS in context of this shitty wargame

Bellum_Romanum said:

And that someone is @5unrise ...been a fan and a subscriber of his channel for a long time before I even realized that he, too, was a member and contributor to this forum.

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Oh Lordy Lordy. If I were @5unrise I might pull a J-20B photographer and plaster a giant “F*** CSIS and their moms” watermark on every frame of my video.

Temstar said:

View attachment 104970
I like that assumption. "We don't know if this missile can be used against ship, I'm just going to assume yes because we have a lot of it and they're awesome".

The report really tries to sell massed JASSM-ER as a war winning wunderwaffe, which then makes me recall something we saw displayed this year at Zhuhai:
View attachment 104971
Well this is awkward

Click to expand...

Well, they're right in the sense that JASSM ER will have upgrades to enable them to have a near LRASM capability.

And they're also correct in recognizing the availability of that as a major determinant for the outcome of the conflict (either in their wargame scenario or otherwise), if we see it in terms of volume/bandwidth of anti shipping fires.

there are other aspects of their wargame which is much more silly, but that isn't a major one.

@Blitzo @Patchwork_Chimera are you guys making a video soon?

I think China needs to develop faster vertical troop transport capability. If this is a tiltrotor like the V-280 Valor or something different remains to be seen. In the late 1960s early 1970s a lot of countries experimented with VTOL aircraft. Most of these projects failed because back then avionics were not sophisticated enough or the designs were too expensive. One example is the Dornier Do 31.
China having something which can traverse the straights quickly and unload troops would increase the amount of possible options. By achieving early surprise it might be possible to capture port facilities early in the conflict and speed up the landing of heavy armored forces and supplies.