And yet, they still couldn't even spell your channel's name correctly. So much for a famous national strategic think tank.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
I want to add if the US blockades China without engaging the PLA, PLA can start rolling up American bases in the West Pac. The US can either watch its bases get destroyed and its vassals' screams for help unanswered or send its forces to engage and get destroyed.
I missed some of the earlier discussion, too many threads...
I see people have already noted that they seemingly have gone with "China goes with the stupidest strategy possible, therefore we can win"
How would a China blockade work exactly? There would be so much 2-way pain. I imagine there would be mass hoarding in western countries and crime would skyrocket in America since people can't afford TVs and iPhones anymore.
I see people have already noted that they seemingly have gone with "China goes with the stupidest strategy possible, therefore we can win"
How would a China blockade work exactly? There would be so much 2-way pain. I imagine there would be mass hoarding in western countries and crime would skyrocket in America since people can't afford TVs and iPhones anymore.
They are implying that China will use the same playbook like one of the tactics which the Allied forces had envisioned for use during the planned invasion of the Japanese home islands under Operation Downfall in November 1945.
To put it simply, instead of sending landing crafts packed with troops towards the landing beachheads of southern Kyushu, the Allied forces will send landing crafts packed with AA guns. These modified landing crafts would bait Imperial Japanese kamikaze fighters into attacking them (because enemy landing crafts are valuable targets in amphibious landing operations for the defending side), therefore effectively grind down the strength of the Kamikaze fleets before the Allied powers proceed with actual amphibious landings.
Sure, it may sound dumb. But if there are suitable opportunities to deploy proper decoys in order to fool the Taiwanese separatists, why shouldn't the PLA take the chances?
In fact, even in the warzones of Ukraine today, decoys are widely employed by both Ukrainian and Russian forces to deceive and fool the opposing sides, in hopes that the opposing sides would waste ammunitions on these decoys, rather than actual useful troops and equipment. This is part-and-parcel of military deception (MILDEC).
Of course, I am not saying that China will definitely send empty landing ships and crafts towards Taiwan's beaches as decoys to fool the Taiwanese separatists into firing on them. But perhaps, China could modify these landing ships and crafts into playing the same roles as kamikaze drones. However, the cost-versus-benefit must play into the hands of the PLA in order to make this work.
The US government would raise the limit of Zero-Dollar Purchase (零元购) from 1 thousand USD to 5 thousand USD, perhaps? Maybe 10, 20 thousand?
They also assume things like a complete ISR targeting chain for Taiwanese harpoons and don't even consider MLRS counterbattery fire, loss of Taiwanese ISR, morale effects of the loss of food and energy in Taiwan, and don't think they go into how PLA would degrade Taiwanese ground forces with standoff munitions. They even brag about how the M60 is more heavily armored and armed than PLA amphibious Type 05 as if they'll be shooting at each other directly, rather than air and vehicle launched ATGMs taking care of the Cold War era disposal job.
But Eurasia Nabal Insight is a decent channel at least.
An active attrition strategy to destroy the Taiwanese field forces and then their economy is the best IMO. Hit them from beyond the range where they can hit back. Then deploy amphibious forces to Penghu to set up fire control over the principle North south highway on Taiwan. Choke them out by taking out their food, energy and water supplies.So CSIS agrees with us that blockade-only option is the best one?
Sorry, I forgot to include their heading
It was "What this simulation does not do"
So I am pointing out that they are NOT simulating any kind of decoys (which is nonsense).
It's no joke really. I don't think American society could easily handle such a shock for something like Taiwan. Especially if this was in response to a PLA blockade that was not a shooting war.
Let's say the price of an iPhone went from $2000 to $4000. Suddenly all these people become targets for robbery/murder because the payoff is so much bigger.
I have to admit, I did not get far. Like you said, there wasn't anything like use of standoff munitions (or drones). Why any PLA force would get hammered by Harpoons and just get casually mopped up by totally intact ROCA beach defenders? These assumptions just fly in the face of reality. I understand they can't really simulate everything, especially not something like morale, or special forces tactics, but even the straightforward aspects didn't seem well thought out.