in this simulation they only allowed China to use Eastern Theater Command assets. So 1/4 of Chinese forces can basically fight their entire Asian alliance system to a standstill and inflict crippling damage by their own estimates.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
The only theater command that makes sense to not send forces to the ETC is the WTC.
I am pretty much sure that India and US will cooperate to keep WTC forces on the Indian border. I am not saying that an India-China war will happen but that India may stage big enough military exercises to prevent the WTC from sending forces to the ETC
WTC doesn't have much in the way of power projection assets so that's fine. just another example of this game having political results.
As many have pointed out, wargames released for public consumption shouldn't be taken at face value and are merely a dog whistle for agenda setting.
Lobbyists would point to this paper to get Congress' approval for raised defence expenditure; none the wiser average joes on both democratic spectrum would panic, lending support to bipartisan anti-China policies; recruitment centers may also witness a spike in applications.
Meanwhile MIC laughing their way to the bank but the people who know, know.
And they claim China is rife with propaganda
Lobbyists would point to this paper to get Congress' approval for raised defence expenditure; none the wiser average joes on both democratic spectrum would panic, lending support to bipartisan anti-China policies; recruitment centers may also witness a spike in applications.
Meanwhile MIC laughing their way to the bank but the people who know, know.
And they claim China is rife with propaganda
i saw people claiming this but failed to find it anywhere in the wargame report. Would you please point to it?
This is another gem
"Taiwan’s air losses included roughly half of its operational air force, the majority lost on the ground to
missile strikes" - by Week 3/4
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By the end of Day 1, I expect a minimum of half of Taiwan's Air Force to be lost.
By Day 7, it would be 90%. Yet somehow half of Taiwan's Air Force is still flying by Week 3?
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And it's an axiom that you need air superiority in order to conduct a successful amphibious landing.
Yet they assume the Chinese decide to launch an amphibious invasion when half of the Taiwanese Air Force is still flying?
"Taiwan’s air losses included roughly half of its operational air force, the majority lost on the ground to
missile strikes" - by Week 3/4
---
By the end of Day 1, I expect a minimum of half of Taiwan's Air Force to be lost.
By Day 7, it would be 90%. Yet somehow half of Taiwan's Air Force is still flying by Week 3?
---
And it's an axiom that you need air superiority in order to conduct a successful amphibious landing.
Yet they assume the Chinese decide to launch an amphibious invasion when half of the Taiwanese Air Force is still flying?
I saw it elsewhere too, can't find it in this report, seems they've done this a few months ago though:
probably from that report.
I am really glad that CSIS 'experts' and 'analysts' are using Youtube video as a source for the capabilities of naval forces of the principal combatants. Are these guys really being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars (big bucks) to sit and watch youtube? Expertise on display right here!
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Did you see the clip they used on HypOps' video?
But I'm glad they referenced your channel bro. Yours is severely underrated deserving of more subs.
This is the actual report
The biggest problem partially pointed out by others, is this assumption
If I understood their base scenario, essentially all the missiles are launched at the beginning and destroy most fixed targets. Then landing ships basically steam forward seemingly without any defenses, so half are destroyed by shore based Harpoons or subs.
Kind of makes no sense because it is almost absolutely assumed by most people there would be use of decoys. It's such a no brainer. There are 100 Harpoon launchers, and 400 missiles, along with a few hundred more HF-2 and 3. Obviously something like 054A would have difficulty protecting landing ships with only 32 HQ-16. You would have to draw out the Harpoons somehow.
We already know there are 150 J-6 decoys/suicide drones to confuse Taiwan's air defense systems, so ships are just natural.