PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Re: Nato intervention

Not officially I don't think but they'll find ways to weasel their way around Nato agreement stipulations e.g. "Volunteers"/foreign legion from said nations donning non-identifiable uniforms etc. Singapore sort of does it with 星光部队 (starlight troopers) for strictly training purposes.

I imagine KMT soldiers will be in for a bit of an awkwardness when forced to fight side by side in due time.

Recall this:
Friend who is USAF who got to ride the C-17s few months ago. It was the exact scenario as i described. i can't show more pics but he sent a lot (not illegal or classified). it was cool seeing C-17s all around the Airfield and flying about rushing to another loaded with fuel trucks.

he can't tell me much more than that though other than there is consideration for RedAir and that several TW fighters and C-17 are already downed at the start. maybe you can find out it took place in may-june 2022.
I was wondering if NATO could use these C-17s and C-130s to enter and land on Taiwan using justifications like for "humanitarian purposes" and "evacuated stranded citizens", while secretly offloading military supplies and NATO mercanaries + military advisors into Taiwan in the process?
 

theforgotten0007

New Member
Registered Member
Recall this:

I was wondering if NATO could use these C-17s and C-130s to enter and land on Taiwan using justifications like for "humanitarian purposes" and "evacuated stranded citizens", while secretly offloading military supplies and NATO mercanaries + military advisors into Taiwan in the process?
It's been an open secret that US has been sending their soldiers to taiwan for years, contravening the Shanghai communiques. Iirc ex-ambassador Chas Freeman mentioned before on one of his talks.
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
Recall this:

I was wondering if NATO could use these C-17s and C-130s to enter and land on Taiwan using justifications like for "humanitarian purposes" and "evacuated stranded citizens", while secretly offloading military supplies and NATO mercanaries + military advisors into Taiwan in the process?
Unless these NATO mercenaries are Captain America and the rest of the Avengers (including Spider-Man), how many soldiers do you think they can unload from a few airplanes to make a meaningful difference in capability?

Furthermore, why would China allow US/NATO military planes to land for any reason during war time? If that is happening, just give up, PLA clearly lost already.
 

theforgotten0007

New Member
Registered Member
Unless these NATO mercenaries are Captain America and the rest of the Avengers (including Spider-Man), how many soldiers do you think they can unload from a few airplanes to make a meaningful difference in capability?

Furthermore, why would China allow US/NATO military planes to land for any reason during war time? If that is happening, just give up, PLA clearly lost already.
I don't think the context of the discussion was during wartime.

Anyway, NATO mercs training local partisan groups should be the least of your worries when they can hamper Chinese landing efforts in the greater scheme of things e.g. mining deepwater ports/sabotage tech labs/jamming electronics or other scorched earth tactics. Perhaps evacuation of key personnel a la Ops Frequent Wind/Paperclip evacuation to "live to fight another day" type bs etc.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
The major problem with the report is political, not technical. In their base case scenario, the US is fighting from day 1, which isn't very realistic in a surprise attack. If the US were ready and willing to fight, of course China wouldn't launch an invasion immediately. In their "Taiwan stands alone" scenario, the whole south up to Taichung is liberated in 42 days. Taipei could fight on to the last man, but would probably surrender at that point.

They also consider the scenario that the US only gets involved 14 days after the beginning of hostilities, which is much more likely if we're talking about a Chinese surprise attack. They don't discuss the results from that scenario, unfortunately.

If the PLA can take everything from Kaohsiung to Taichung in 14 days, there will be no American involvement. If China looks weak and struggles to take any major territory, they will try to strike.

Below is a key statement in the CSIS report:

"At the other extreme, if no amount of U.S. assistance can save Taiwan from a Chinese invasion, then the United States should not mount a quixotic effort to defend the island."

---

Given that the Chinese Air Force will have something like air superiority over Taiwan, the simplest and cheapest way to break Taiwan is to use existing trucks launchers in the Army to field Shaheed-136 munitions. These munitions are low-cost, long-range, will completely saturate any Taiwanese air defences and can be launched in huge numbers every day.

And I don't see any effective counter to this.
 

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
Realistically, when can China military capabilities match up with the U.S? President Xi said modernization will be completed by 2035. I also heard 2050 as a possibility too.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Recall this:

I was wondering if NATO could use these C-17s and C-130s to enter and land on Taiwan using justifications like for "humanitarian purposes" and "evacuated stranded citizens", while secretly offloading military supplies and NATO mercanaries + military advisors into Taiwan in the process?
If a conflict start, they will need airfields to land... not sure that airfields will exist anymore after a couple of hours.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Realistically, when can China military capabilities match up with the U.S? President Xi said modernization will be completed by 2035. I also heard 2050 as a possibility too.
Compare what China capabilities can directly be used on Taiwan from day one and what US capabilities can be used to help them... You don't need to compare, US don't have enough quantity or quality there to help at all beside disturbing the process.
 

Rowdyhorse4

New Member
Registered Member
A modern AESA can still detect them as soon as they break the horizon so the biggest benefit is during the transit phase or against older systems. To get the long ranges they have to fly in a High flight profile for most of the trip which increases the chance of intercept.
People actually unironically use CMANO in this forum?
interesting, recommend to not use it because CMANO is literally has a dice system as well.

(I remember P-800s being better than most Zirkons in that game because "Zig-Zag Manuever: 50% hit reduction" whilst hypersonic speeds doesn't reduce hit change)
 

Rowdyhorse4

New Member
Registered Member
the argument itself was fine though (as an argument), just don't use CMANO. (DCS as well, both are games with limitations that can't simulate IRL conditions perfectly.

the accuracy of DCS's flight model of the AIM-120 was challenged when SD-10A was introduced for example, where DekaIronworks hired someone with experience in the chinese aerospace MIC to model the flight characteristics of the SD-10A [without touching classified stuff], leading to superior performance to the AIM-120 in game until Eagle Dynamics buffed the AIM-120 based on Deka's work)
 
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