PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

sndef888 said:

I'd love to see US subs and ships try and disrupt a landing protected by a fleet of 16/24 055s, 30+ 052C/Ds, 50 054As and 70 056s all while under air cover of hundreds of J20s and J10/11/16.

All the sea animals would probably go deaf from the sonar and explosions

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Overbom said:

This is offtopic but seeing you posted it here I will respond with a few words.

The expert is broadly correct, Saudi Arabia has a different strategic calculus from the US/EU. Middle East is a different geopolitical chessboard than Europe.
So when they say , what are you going to do about Russia, the answer will be "nothing, things in our region are ok. Move on with your European war and leave us alone"

/end of offtopic

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9dashline said:

I watched the whole thing, the visuals and style is good... but content is lacking....

Seriously he didn't even touch the surface of what would go on if US were to get involved and escalate further... right where it gets interesting he throws his hands up in the air and basically says at that point "anything can happen" and that he finds it useless to go into speculation etc...

He points out that obviously China military come a long way in 20 years, but mentions nothing of the new stuff coming online in the next five to ten years that would completely tilt things even more in China's favor if the US were to get involved in TW scenario...

And yeah and completely editing the ADIZ to make Taiwan look not as ridiculous lol... I think even this thread has far more valuable information than his video and he should have read up on this forum before doing this video, he lays out all these papers and pretends to have "dug deep research" but by the way he actually distilled and presented the content /information it sure doesn't appear so... its surface level and superficial

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tphuang said:

Taiwanese or does it see itself getting involved to prevent China from getting overly powerful and controlling the entire chip industry?

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9dashline said:

Chip is just a part of the picture, albeit a big part...

If China were to lose the war then US would for sure turn TW into another military base, America's Far East Hawaii of sorts... (not to mention it would be foregone conclusion that by that point the SCS islands would be flipped to US etc)
This means TW island would be Chinese Cuban Missile crisis with hypersonic nuclear tipped weapons ready to decapitate Chinese leadership in under 15 minutes, in effect forcing a full Chinese capitulation (economic, military, technology, political etc) to the US...

On the other hand, if China is successful in reunification, then with TW as China's Eastward Hawaii etc America loses the 1st and 2nd island chain and eventually much of the Western Pacific, and with that loses its hegemonic status along with the lose of the petrodollar hegemony means that America will inevitably implode from within, civil war and getting fractured into many pieces in the homeland....

If ever there were a WWIII scenario, the fight over TW would be it...

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9dashline said:

Chip is just a part of the picture, albeit a big part...

If China were to lose the war then US would for sure turn TW into another military base, America's Far East Hawaii of sorts... (not to mention it would be foregone conclusion that by that point the SCS islands would be flipped to US etc)
This means TW island would be Chinese Cuban Missile crisis with hypersonic nuclear tipped weapons ready to decapitate Chinese leadership in under 15 minutes, in effect forcing a full Chinese capitulation (economic, military, technology, political etc) to the US...

On the other hand, if China is successful in reunification, then with TW as China's Eastward Hawaii etc America loses the 1st and 2nd island chain and eventually much of the Western Pacific, and with that loses its hegemonic status along with the lose of the petrodollar hegemony means that America will inevitably implode from within, civil war and getting fractured into many pieces in the homeland....

If ever there were a WWIII scenario, the fight over TW would be it...

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sndef888 said:

For america to not intervene in taiwan, america has to get used to losing.

It's been more or less the case since covid started when they did nothing and killed a million of their own people. Then RCEP was signed after TPP died. Then the middle east moving away from us influence. Then china growing by 3 trillion in 2021 and things like Eileen Gu. And now possibly an open successful invasion of ukraine.

A few more incidents and the US will not have the confidence or political will to intervene anymore.

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9dashline said:

Ukraine is about Russian containment, (but Russian containment is really about China Containment) the West/NATO/US wants to contain and erasure Russian (economically and otherwise) because before it can try to take down China it has to take down Russia first.... So Ukraine is very different from Tiawan in that Ukraine is a means to an end but Tiawan is the ends... US left Middle East in order to pivot to Asia and save its resources to take on China in a fight over Tiawan, the same reason America doesn't get boots on the ground sort of involvement in Ukraine is because they are saving it all up to fight China... Russia was never a threat to American hegemony, it was always China. but to get a chance to take China down they have to solve the Russia problem first. Which they are apparently doing right now as we speak...

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tphuang said:

That's actually the wrong to look at it. China will normalize incursions around Taiwan with larger and larger air force incursions and military exercises. US cannot leave large number of aircraft carrier groups around Taiwan for a long time. China will attack when things are in its favor in terms of available assets and when Taiwanese government is behaving in a way that it doesn't like. US cannot maintain forward deployment positions for F-35As and multiple carrier groups for years at a time. China's main assets are already located in south china sea and east china sea and the eastern china theater. It does not take much time to move them to ready position in the event they do want to attack Taiwan. As such, China will almost assuredly have an overwhelming advantage in the early phases of a war.

Taiwan is not Ukraine. China can successfully conclude a Taiwan campaign by simply taking out Taiwan air defense/military bases and taking down power grid/cell network/communication network with electronic and cyber attacks. And then do landings at Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung with overwhelming air power. With the number of helicopters and UCAVs they will have by the end of this decade, they are going to be able to overwhelm Taiwan defense in a way that Russian hasn't been able to overwhelming Ukrainian defense. I think at best, Taiwan holds on for 3 days. Once Taiwan gives up, it's an entirely different battle for US trying to take back Taiwan. As long as China can make it short with low number of civilian casualties, there will be widespread condemnation around the world, but much less desire for Western countries to try to free Taiwan.

It depends on what you think America's end goal with Taiwan is. Does it see itself getting involved for Taiwanese or does it see itself getting involved to prevent China from getting overly powerful and controlling the entire chip industry? I would say the latter is the case, but it still would need to pretend that they are doing it for the former. At a certain point if Taiwanese people are okay with autonomy inside greater China, that really gives Western countries fewer reasons to get involved, because further conflict would only cause greater disruption to everyday Taiwanese life.

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