PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
supersnoop said:
Chip industry is a total straw man.
What happens if TSMC blows up tomorrow? Your iPhone becomes a little hotter, slower, and the runs out of battery an hour sooner?

America has 100% of the tools and know how needed to create chips domestically, they just happen to be 2nd best right now.

Taiwan is 100% about strategic containment.
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THIS.

TSMC is important in the chip industry and if all their factories would be blown up tomorrow it would also cause a massive hit to the industry but it would not be unrecoverable (albeit we're looking at years to 'get back on track') and there will be chips to replace them (which might not be as good yes).

With that said, it most likely is a piece of the pie/equation(s) and something that is talked/thought about, but it's not the end all be all, nor is it likely to be the primary driver/reason in case the US were to intervene in the case China had to take Taiwan by force.
 
9dashline

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
supersnoop said:
Chip industry is a total straw man.
What happens if TSMC blows up tomorrow? Your iPhone becomes a little hotter, slower, and the runs out of battery an hour sooner?

America has 100% of the tools and know how needed to create chips domestically, they just happen to be 2nd best right now.

Taiwan is 100% about strategic containment.
Click to expand...
TSMC is nothing with ASML, and ASML as it turns out is just a systems integrator just like that crappy Lenovo
 
9dashline

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
They're solving the Russian problem by... Having Russia totally conquer a country under their nominal protection in less time than it took to conquer Iraq? For a "strong, democratic" Ukrainian government to fall faster than Afghanistan?? By losing billions when they're banned from Russian airspace and lose every single route from EU to SEA?
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Russia has basically already conquered Ukraine and it will become its buffer zone for sure... but at the cost of Russia potentially getting kicked out of SWIFT and many other things which also "by association" will turn the EU even more against China... I think there is more to it than face value and sure Putin was left with no choice (between rock and hard place) but the US did strategically goad the infighting for its own long term geopolitical purpose of preventing the Eurasian landmass as one united peacefully trading bloc... I mean already airlines are going to be refuse to fly over Ukraine/Russia airspace, dampening world/global trade and this in effect hurts China as well since China is now the largest trading partner to the world, the TLDR is that America benefits from this chaos that is happening on the other side of the world... its a way of shaking the money tree and harvesting the chaos to feed its dollar system.
 
E

ecaedus

New Member
Registered Member
looking at how Russia has yet to overwhelm Ukraine definitely left me a new impression of the currently capabilities of the Russian army as a whole. It is poor showing of a supposed "lighting strike" aimed at "disabling" the Ukrainian military or "denazi" the Ukrainian government.

pretty sure the key take away for PLA is the utmost importance of EW and precision strike. I'm having doubt on how fast, accurate and effective PLARF/PLAAF/PLAN can actually execute on these two aspects, under their current capabilities.

For tw, take away is simple, hold on as long as you can and mobilize everyone that's willing to fight, and wait for a major US intervention to drag China into a war of attrition in the westpac.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
9dashline said:
Russia has basically already conquered Ukraine and it will become its buffer zone for sure... but at the cost of Russia potentially getting kicked out of SWIFT and many other things which also "by association" will turn the EU even more against China... I think there is more to it than face value and sure Putin was left with no choice (between rock and hard place) but the US did strategically goad the infighting for its own long term geopolitical purpose of preventing the Eurasian landmass as one united peacefully trading bloc... I mean already airlines are going to be refuse to fly over Ukraine/Russia airspace, dampening world/global trade and this in effect hurts China as well since China is now the largest trading partner to the world, the TLDR is that America benefits from this chaos that is happening on the other side of the world... its a way of shaking the money tree and harvesting the chaos to feed its dollar system.
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Now Russia has no choice but to become like Canada is to the US, but unlike Canada it will be an actual power in it's own right.

EU has no choice but to keep trading with China. There was never any hope of them becoming independent. And every time US shakes the money tree, a little less fries back. The westbloc as a whole grows weaker each time, it's just that it distribution is different (more centralized on US itself). Problem is, centralizing resources in the US isn't actually the most optimal use of resources for westbloc since US gets alot less bang for it's buck than EU or JP due to built in EROEI inefficiencies like low density suburban development, car dependency, infrastructure debt, sky high private medical costs, etc.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
ecaedus said:
looking at how Russia has yet to overwhelm Ukraine definitely left me a new impression of the currently capabilities of the Russian army as a whole. It is poor showing of a supposed "lighting strike" aimed at "disabling" the Ukrainian military or "denazi" the Ukrainian government.

pretty sure the key take away for PLA is the utmost importance of EW and precision strike. I'm having doubt on how fast, accurate and effective PLARF/PLAAF/PLAN can actually execute on these two aspects, under their current capabilities.

For tw, take away is simple, hold on as long as you can and mobilize everyone that's willing to fight, and wait for a major US intervention to drag China into a war of attrition in the westpac.
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What are your doubts founded on? Like what are your facts? I really hate when opponents of China only have to say "nope" or "I doubt" with no proof but anyone neutral to China have to provide like a 20 page multiple citation research paper.

like I said, Russia is moving faster than US did in Iraq which had a 6 month buildup as well. Note how nobody said Iraq was resisting US effectively despite US being stuck far more often. Iraqi Migs were still flying a week into the war.
 
M

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
like I said, Russia is moving faster than US did in Iraq which had a 6 month buildup as well. Note how nobody said Iraq was resisting US effectively despite US being stuck far more often. Iraqi Migs were still flying a week into the war.
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People really seems to be forgetting to look back and compare what's happening now to past wars (and also take into various circumstances such as build up and the likes, although in this case russian forces were in position, but from what I can currently gather, actually not prepared to invade Ukraine, or didn't think they would have to).

With that said, it seems that the russian army has made 'several mistakes' although seemingly not that severe mistakes but mistakes nonetheless (or miscalculations).
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
tphuang said:
Could China launch an attack on Taiwan right now? Sure, if Taiwan decides to unilaterally change status quo. But China launching unilateral actions would just be too risky.
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Just for the record, I think most of the discussion around a hypothetical Taiwan contingency occurring in the near future, is all under the assumption that Taiwan pushes too far and crosses a red line, resulting in conflict.

I don't think anyone expects China to carry out an unprovoked attack, and most people would agree that from the PLA's side, it is better to wait and further grow their capabilities as the military and economic balance continues to tilt in their favour.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Michaelsinodef said:
People really seems to be forgetting to look back and compare what's happening now to past wars (and also take into various circumstances such as build up and the likes, although in this case russian forces were in position, but from what I can currently gather, actually not prepared to invade Ukraine, or didn't think they would have to).

With that said, it seems that the russian army has made 'several mistakes' although seemingly not that severe mistakes but mistakes nonetheless (or miscalculations).
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Agreed that Russian forces are making some mistakes but you also have to realize their political constraints. Russian strategy is artillery based firepower as maneuver. Yet they've been holding back artillery for now and trying to use only PGMs and airpower to reduce civilian casualties.

There was under no such constraints in Iraq either in 1991 or 2003. They used indiscriminate carpet bombing (92% of munitions dropped in 1991 were dumb bombs) and ignored civilian casualties.

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S

sndef888

Captain
Registered Member
supersnoop said:
Chip industry is a total straw man.
What happens if TSMC blows up tomorrow? Your iPhone becomes a little hotter, slower, and the runs out of battery an hour sooner?

America has 100% of the tools and know how needed to create chips domestically, they just happen to be 2nd best right now.

Taiwan is 100% about strategic containment.
Click to expand...
Exactly. It's just a western talking point to justify interventionism. Nobody cares if the next iphone plays games at 90 fps instead of 100. Besides, TSMC is already building plants in arizona
 
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