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SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
tonyget said:
There is still question of blockade. Even if China takes TW，the US can still block the sea route which is vital to China's trade. That's is the fundmental limitation of countries don't have many oversea bases such as China. If you want to project power，you need oversea base. At the moment I don't see China building oversea bases（which I think is very important）. Even Chinese Djibouti base only host navy but no air force，the US Djibouti base has air force by contrast.
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Blockade of what? China manufacturing would be all in for the war effort. There will be no trade that is absolutely necessary for China during wartime. I would assume that China has built up enough reserves of raw materials and foods to completely self sustain in wartime for a couple of years at the minimum.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
tonyget said:
That's not a task cheap drones could do
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All of the First island Chain is within 1300km of mainland China.

Consider how piston-engine cruise missiles (such as the Shaheed) have a 2000km+ range, so they can cover all of the First island Chain

Yet they likely cost in the $20K-$50K range. That's a bargain considering Tomahawks/JASSMs are over $1 Mn each
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
tonyget said:
The US can block China from entering Indian ocean
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Why would China really care about sending ships to the Indian ocean?

China's focus will be on a air-sea blockade of Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines.

That forces the US Navy to approach to within 1300km of mainland China
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
tonyget said:
Because that is where China's most important trade route lies
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All that becomes irrelevant in a total war situation.

Previous back of the envelope calculations indicate China could manage without seaborne imports of oil and gas.

And remember that China shares land borders with many countries that will be neutral trading partners, which will become transhipment locations. Such as ASEAN.

China is geographically the same size as the continental USA, and can be broadly self sufficient in most respects.

China's industry would be retasked with war production to build a bigger Navy and Air Force than the US.
The US Navy helpfully produced a presentation which stated that Chinese shipbuilding capacity is 232x greater than the USA. That is not a typo.
 
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