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Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Now both China and the United States have the ability to launch missiles to saturate surface ships at a long distance, and the future development direction is also more and more out-of-area attacks. So the survivability of surface ships will become worse and worse in the future

The problem is that the United States does not need to let the fleet enter the combat zone, and the United States can let the fleet hide far away. But China cannot let the fleet hide far away. If it wants to land in Taiwan, the fleet must enter the combat zone. This is a very difficult problem to solve

Another problem is that if China and the United States fire missiles at each other, China will suffer more.
That's assuming the quality and quantity of missiles are the same.
Because the United States can hit important coastal cities in China, while China can only hit American islands in the Pacific.
China will hit the important cities of whoever aids US aggression. Thus massively damaging US' economy, especially since like 95% of semiconductors are imported from Asia.
These small islands are basically military bases and have little economic value. So the degree of loss on both sides is different

So even if the equipment level of China and the United States is the same, the United States still has an asymmetric advantage
But the equipment level isn't the same. One side can make way way more missiles/seaborne drones.

If you're US planning an attack on Taiwan, you're faced with two different options that are each very disadvantageous in their own way:

1. Somehow involve tons of Asian countries in the attack. In response, China will massively bomb those areas and then counterinvade. To have a hope of preventing that, US must institute a general draft and then land in Asia with huge amounts of war material (how will it be produced?), using its own forces (and most vitally, air defenses) to protect Asian cities.

2. Go at it alone. You however only have up to a dozen bases at most. All your war materiel needs to be routed through these limited logistics chokepoints.

The reason US has not attacked yet is because these are pretty severe problems that their strategists can't solve. Mind you these were issues that US faced even back in the third Taiwan strait crisis.
 

tonyget

Senior Member
Registered Member
That's assuming the quality and quantity of missiles are the same.

Doesn't change the calculus

China will hit the important cities of whoever aids US aggression. Thus massively damaging US' economy, especially since like 95% of semiconductors are imported from Asia.

I don't think the US cares too much,TSMC already producing in the US,and they will build more fabs in the US from now on. They may even happy to see all these productions in Asia got destroyed,so that manufacturing can finally back to the US

But the equipment level isn't the same. One side can make way way more missiles/seaborne drones.

If you're US planning an attack on Taiwan, you're faced with two different options that are each very disadvantageous in their own way:

1. Somehow involve tons of Asian countries in the attack. In response, China will massively bomb those areas and then counterinvade. To have a hope of preventing that, US must institute a general draft and then land in Asia with huge amounts of war material (how will it be produced?), using its own forces (and most vitally, air defenses) to protect Asian cities.
2. Go at it alone. You however only have up to a dozen bases at most. All your war materiel needs to be routed through these limited logistics chokepoints.

If I were the US,the last thing I want to see is allies refuse to help me which force me to fight alone. If there are tons of countries in Asia somehow all decide to fight China,That is a huge win for me. And I don't think China want to fight all these countries at once either.

So if China starts to bomb these countries,the US would be laughing

The reason US has not attacked yet is because these are pretty severe problems that their strategists can't solve. Mind you these were issues that US faced even back in the third Taiwan strait crisis.

The US is waiting China to make the first move
 

ismellcopium

Junior Member
Registered Member
Firstly,airstrip can be repaired within hours. You'd need to fire long range missiles at every US base evey few hours to keep disable it

Secondly,the US can fly bombers from Hawaii or Wake Island or Australia,or even from the US mainland with aerial refueling. Then launch hundreds of LRASM from 1000km away
Have you ever even looked at these places? Wake is tiny, sure they can technically take off from it, but there won't be much sustainment let alone repair capacity when PLA munitions quickly obliterate the small surface area and single runway on the island.

Also Jesus can you use the right thread, the last few pages should've been in the Taiwan or HIC thread.
 

tonyget

Senior Member
Registered Member
All that becomes irrelevant in a total war situation.

Previous back of the envelope calculations indicate China could manage without seaborne imports of oil and gas.

And remember that China shares land borders with many countries that will be neutral trading partners, which will become transhipment locations. Such as ASEAN.

China is geographically the same size as the continental USA, and can be broadly self sufficient in most respects.

China's industry would be retasked with war production to build a bigger Navy and Air Force than the US.
The US Navy helpfully produced a presentation which stated that Chinese shipbuilding capacity is 232x greater than the USA. That is not a typo.

Firstly,China needs to import tons of minerals in order to sustain industrial production,which is what China doing now.

Secondly, China needs to export products to the world in order to sustain economic growth,which is also what China doing now.
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
Firstly,China needs to import tons of minerals in order to sustain industrial production,which is what China doing now.

Secondly, China needs to export products to the world in order to sustain economic growth,which is also what China doing now.
No one grows in a ww3 scenario, staying alive is enough. When New York and la doesn't exist anymore, imis that negative growth?

Also there is only one fab in Arizona, so only one missile away from having no semiconductor manufacturing for the US.
 
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