PLA next/6th generation fighter thread

[Blitzo]

That doesn't make sense. If the WS-15 is mature enough for the PLAAF to have the confidence to switch all new J-20s over to it, it's mature enough for early production J-XD.

It does make sense.

J-20 at least is a well established and proven airframe that's been flying since 2011 in its tech demo form and has had nearly a decade in service.
WS-15 is a relatively new engine.

J-XD, when it first flies is an entirely new and unproven airframe.
WS-15 is a relative new engine.


The ability of WS-15 to be installed in new production variant J-20As (which I would like to see evidence of first btw before calling it), has no bearing on whether it is sufficiently mature to power a new manned fighter with a brand new airframe.
Whether WS-15 would sufficiently ready for early production J-XD... I won't rule it out, but I certainly do not think it should be assumed as the default.


Imo for PLA "engine situations" we are always obliged to take the "less ambitious" option as more likely, until the PRC aerospace industry has a sustained pattern of meeting the deliverables in a manner consistent with other global powers (e.g. first flight of YF-22/23 occurring with very new and unproven YF119/120 engines)

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

I want to clarify that I'm talking entirely about the first batch production, not what will power the long series of prototypes.

Whether WS-15 would sufficiently ready for early production J-XD... I won't rule it out, but I certainly do not think it should be assumed as the default.

I disagree with this, reason being that batch production is certain to start at least 5 years after the initial test flight of the airframe, and more likely 6 or 7 years after. The prototypes are expected to change as the testing cycle progresses, so it wouldn't matter much if the engines powering later prototypes change because everything's going to change. As a matter of risk profile, how the WS-15 looks now is now is not how it'll look 5-7 years from now when production decisions are being made.

Batch production is a different animal. Starting production with a WS-10 means committing to the factory tooling, certification, and logistical train of that engine throughout the fighters' lifetime. Switching engines means redesign, retooling, retesting, recertification, and slapping more logistics work throughout the fleet.

WS-10 -> WS-15 -> adaptive cycle is not the more conservative option than WS-15 -> adaptive cycle. You're guaranteeing yourself two rounds of headaches instead of one.

Imo for PLA "engine situations" we are always obliged to take the "less ambitious" option as more likely, until the PRC aerospace industry has a sustained pattern of meeting the deliverables in a manner consistent with other global powers (e.g. first flight of YF-22/23 occurring with very new and unproven YF119/120 engines)

On the topic of what the US did with the F-22, imo the past isn't prologue in China's case due to the enormous scope of change that China's aerospace sector has undergone since the J-20 first flew. I think it's more accurate to look at China's present state as tabula rasa.

Even were the old conservatism born from poverty of means to remain unaltered, the level of confidence of the PLAAF has in the WS-15 today - let alone the level it'll have when the J-XD enters batch production - far exceeds what it had at a comparable phase of the J-20's development.

 

[Blitzo]

I want to clarify that I'm talking entirely about the first batch production, not what will power the long series of prototypes.

That is fine, though my previous reply does account for that.

I disagree with this, reason being that batch production is certain to start at least 5 years after the initial test flight of the airframe, and more likely 6 or 7 years after. The prototypes are expected to change as the testing cycle progresses, so it wouldn't matter much if the engines powering later prototypes change because everything's going to change. As a matter of risk profile, how the WS-15 looks now is now is not how it'll look 5-7 years from now when production decisions are being made.

As I wrote in my last post, I certainly won't rule out the idea of J-XD entering initial batch production with WS-15, but I also won't bet on it as a more likely option. This view is assuming J-XD enters initial batch production a similar amount of time after its first flight with a similar time to J-20 did, and assuming J-XD enters first flies within the next year or so.

My estimate of course will change it J-XD's first flight is later down the line and especially if it takes longer to enter initial production than J-20 did.

Batch production is a different animal. Starting production with a WS-10 means committing to the factory tooling, certification, and logistical train of that engine throughout the fighters' lifetime. Switching engines means redesign, retooling, retesting, recertification, and slapping more logistics work throughout the fleet.

WS-10 -> WS-15 -> adaptive cycle is not the more conservative option than WS-15 -> adaptive cycle. You're guaranteeing yourself two rounds of headaches instead of one.

I'm aware lol.

It would be the J-20 equivalent of Al-31 -> WS-10 -> WS-15, instead of WS-10 -> WS-15.

However we all know what they went with, and it is because of the PLAAF's perception of risk.

On the topic of what the US did with the F-22, imo the past isn't prologue in China's case due to the enormous scope of change that China's aerospace sector has undergone since the J-20 first flew. I think it's more accurate to look at China's present state as tabula rasa.

I am aware past isn't prologue, and I certainly expect the PRC aero industry to catch up to allow them to "fly a new prototype airframe with a new prototype engine" eventually.

Even were the old conservatism born from poverty of means to remain unaltered, the level of confidence of the PLAAF has in the WS-15 today - let alone the level it'll have when the J-XD enters batch production - far exceeds what it had at a comparable phase of the J-20's development.

I'm not suggesting choosing a proven engine like WS-10 for initial production is reflective of a poverty mindset rather than a risk reduction mindset. I would even venture it may have its benefits.

Let's put it this way: if J-XD first flies in the next year or so, and if the J-XD first enters initial production after a similar period to which J-20 entered initial production...
... then I think we are obliged to treat the PLA's perceived risk of WS-15 at that time in a similar manner to the way they perceived the risk of WS-10 to J-20 in its equivalent era.

I certainly won't rule out the idea of J-XD entering initial batch production with WS-15s, but I think it would be overreach to view it as the likely option, right now. If new information comes to light or if WS-15 sees more accelerated readiness, then I would be very happy to reassess.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Yankee & Co. in their

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on Bilibili have some interesting information regarding the (manned fighter component of) Sino-NGAD.

(My own comments are in italic.)

Some key points include:
- Revelation/first flight possible within the next couple 10s of days (几十天内/后);
- System-versus-system combat (e.g. MUMT collaboration, family of systems) will be the absolute defining nature, not unit-vs-unit and platform-vs-platform combat anymore;
- Dimension (and thus, internal space) will be greater than 5th-gen fighters;
- Range (and combat radius) will be greater than 5th-gen fighters;
- High speed at high altitude operations will be important;
- Having larger weapons bay for larger/longer-range AAMs;
- Side weapons bays and SRAAMs (e.g. PL-10, AIM-9X) will become increasingly redundant, as the probability and viability for fighters to get within the range of use of the SRAAMs will become much lower (and that SRAAMs will become more of a deadweight onboard than being actually useful);
- Possibly having some kind of active protection system onboard (such as for shooting down enemy AAMs).

Yankee & Co. also mentioned that the Sino-NGAD can be described as:
- "If there is a parallel timeline where no 5th-gen fighters of our timeline (F-22, F-35, J-20, J-35 etc) exists, then the J-16 (and J-15B) will be the 5th-gen fighters instead."
- "This will be the first time where the US will be negated the long-held advantage of being constantly one generation ahead of their peers/competitors since the Korean War (i.e. "How nice of you to have Su-27s in production/entered service for several years now. Would be a shame if our (Y)F-22 just had its first flight.)."
- "How the Americans will react to the Sino-NGAD could be similar to how the Soviets reacted to the existence of the USN's F-14 during the mid-Cold War (i.e. the Soviets initially believed that the newly-introduced F-14 is just another F-111B.)."

---

By this point, it is reasonable to believe that the manned fighter component of the Sino-NGAD will become some kind of J-20/J-35 Pro Max Plus Ultra, with the main objective of surpassing every parameter of the current 5th-gen fighters. Namely, China's (manned component of) 6th-gens will be more of evolutionary progress from 5th-gens, rather than how 5th-gens are revolutionary progress from 4th-gens.

---

In the meantime, they also mentioned that the J-10CE has earned three more foreign orders (not including Pakistan). We already know Egypt is a potential customer, but which two other countries?

 

[Deino]

Yankee & Co. in their

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on Bilibili have some interesting information regarding the (manned fighter component of) Sino-NGAD.

...
Some key points include:
- Revelation/first flight possible within the next couple 10s of days (几十天内/后);

What???

 

[sunnymaxi]

What???

if first flight is really in 10 days then why not take first flight in air show.. the impact will be much more

 

[sheogorath]

if first flight is really in 10 days then why not take first flight in air show.. the impact will be much more

I don't ever remember any country debuting top secret prototypes at any kind of airshows, for obvious reasons. Specially airshows where everybody and their dog will have high powered lenses.

 

[sunnymaxi]

By this point, it is reasonable to believe that the manned fighter component of the Sino-NGAD will become some kind of J-20/J-35 Pro Max Plus Ultra, with the main objective of surpassing every parameter of the current 5th-gen fighters. Namely, China's (manned component of) 6th-gens will be more of evolutionary progress from 5th-gens, rather than how 5th-gens are revolutionary progress from 4th-gens.

so a tailless design with large dimension as compared to J-20 and powered by WS-10 engines. what if they use WS-15 engines ??

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

What???

I believe this matches what Cute Orca has been saying over the last couple of months (namely regarding the first flight of the (manned component of) Sino-NAGD concept/technology demonstrator (not necessarily a prototype)).

if first flight is really in 10 days then why not take first flight in air show.. the impact will be much more

Because:
- It is nowhere near being close to ready for active service with the PLAAF;
- It may very well be just a concept/technology demonstrator instead of a prototype; and
- The risks and impacts associated with anything that could going wrong with such adventures will be gargantuan.

 

[Deino]

They surely won't fly it on an airshow, but alone a video clip showing ANYTHING on it would be a huge revelation and indeed Zhuhai would fit perfect!

But again, how likely is this?