PLA next/6th generation fighter thread

[ACuriousPLAFan]

so a tailless design with large dimension as compared to J-20 and powered by WS-10 engines. what if they use WS-15 engines ??

They did not mention anything about engines.

But then, as per @Blitzo explained above - The (manned component of) Sino-NGAD concept/technology demonstrator platform could very well only be used for testing and verification of certain technologies and systems. Powerplant likely isn't a major concern at this point of development.

Though, if I'd like to wager - Initial LRIP batches may well be powered by some kind of WS-15 variant.

They surely won't fly it on an airshow, but alone a video clip showing ANYTHING on it would be a huge revelation and indeed Zhuhai would fit perfect!

But again, how likely is this?

In this instance, I'm mainly just a messenger.

But again, caution is advised against posting such information update on the matter on social media for the time being.

 

[tphuang]

Yankee & Co. in their

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on Bilibili have some interesting information regarding the (manned fighter component of) Sino-NGAD.

(My own comments are in italic.)

Some key points include:
- Revelation/first flight possible within the next couple 10s of days (几十天内/后);
- System-versus-system combat (e.g. MUMT collaboration, family of systems) will be the absolute defining nature, not unit-vs-unit and platform-vs-platform combat anymore;
- Dimension (and thus, internal space) will be greater than 5th-gen fighters;
- Range (and combat radius) will be greater than 5th-gen fighters;
- High speed at high altitude operations will be important;
- Having larger weapons bay for larger/longer-range AAMs;
- Side weapons bays and SRAAMs (e.g. PL-10, AIM-9X) will become increasingly redundant, as the probability and viability for fighters to get within the range of use of the SRAAMs will become much lower (and that SRAAMs will become more of a deadweight onboard than being actually useful);
- Possibly having some kind of active protection system onboard (such as for shooting down enemy AAMs).

Yankee & Co. also mentioned that the Sino-NGAD can be described as:
- "If there is a parallel timeline where no 5th-gen fighters of our timeline (F-22, F-35, J-20, J-35 etc) exists, then the J-16 (and J-15B) will be the 5th-gen fighters instead."
- "This would be the first time where the US will be negated the long-held advantage of being constantly one generation ahead of their peers/competitors since the Korean War (i.e. "How nice of you to have Su-27s in production for several years now. Would be a shame if our F-22 just had its first flight.)."
- "How the Americans will react to the Sino-NGAD could be similar to how the Soviets reacted to the existence of the USN's F-14 during the mid-Cold War (i.e. the Soviets initially believed that the VFAX/VFX is just another F-111B.)."

---

By this point, it is reasonable to believe that the manned fighter component of the Sino-NGAD will become some kind of J-20/J-35 Pro Max Plus Ultra, with the main objective of surpassing every parameter of the current 5th-gen fighters. Namely, China's (manned component of) 6th-gens will be more of evolutionary progress from 5th-gens, rather than how 5th-gens are revolutionary progress from 4th-gens.

---

In the meantime, they also mentioned that the J-10CE has earned three more foreign orders (not including Pakistan). Egypt and which two other countries?

2nd to 3rd, 3rd to 4th generation were all evolutionary progress. The only thing revolutionary from 4th to 5th generation is stealth and the massive increase in using modern information warfare. 5th to 6th was never meant to have the kind of leap that we had with 4th to 5th. So, your comment is very strange.

I mean it's quite clear that 6th gen will fly soon. January seems quite possible. That will be 14 years after J-20 first flew.

I guess larger central weapon bay is fine.

I do think some kind of DEW for active protection makes sense.

Aside from the manned fighter jet itself, the loyal wingman portion will be just as interesting. How does UCAVs keep up in speed and altitude with manned fighter? What does it look like?

 

[Deino]

They did not mention anything about engines.

But then, as per @Blitzo explained above - The (manned component of) Sino-NGAD concept/technology demonstrator platform could very well only be used for testing and verification of certain technologies and systems. Powerplant likely isn't a major concern at this point of development.

In fact that is not only how I understand that program but also what I expect: A flight of a testbed/demonstrator, some sort of an YJ-XD, maybe a bit downscaled but representative to test the key elements of the airframe configuration. A true prototype will surely appear only much later

In this instance, I'm mainly just a messenger.

But again, caution is advised against posting such information update on the matter on social media for the time being.

Yes for sure and I totally agree, anyway, if true it would be a major event!

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

2nd to 3rd, 3rd to 4th generation were all evolutionary progress. The only thing revolutionary from 4th to 5th generation is stealth and the massive increase in using modern information warfare. 5th to 6th was never meant to have the kind of leap that we had with 4th to 5th. So, your comment is very strange.

To be fair, some of what I've mentioned and commented in my initial post aren't exactly breaking news per se.

I do think some kind of DEW for active protection makes sense.

I'm thinking of something akin to micro-sized AAMs, which can be carried in larger numbers and launched from the carrier aircraft to intercept enemy AAMs that are targeting the carrier aircraft or nearby friendlies.

But DEW certainly does makes sense too.

 

[Deino]

Yankee & Co. in their

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on Bilibili have some interesting information regarding the (manned fighter component of) Sino-NGAD.

Sorry, me again and even if I do not speak Chinese, can you point towards what timestamp they talk about the Sino-NGAD?

With a content being quite long and over an hour it would be nice to know, where to listen exactly!
Thanks in advance

 

[LuzinskiJ]

But DEW certainly does makes sense too.

Active defense against high-speed-high-agility-multimodal missiles on a size constrained fighter jet will need to be some next level engineering marvel, but I for one can't wait to see what they (China, US or whoever can afford this kind of R/D) come up with.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Sorry, me again and even if I do not speak Chinese, can you point towards what timestamp they talk about the Sino-NGAD?

With a content being quite long and over an hour it would be nice to know, where to listen exactly!
Thanks in advance

I didn't listen to the entire length of the podcast (since it is really long, and they also talked about that flat-deck research and testing platform ship we saw recently at the beginning of the podcast).

I based my initial post on roughly within 30:00 - 51:00 of the podcast and (mainly) sum-ups and discussions WRT the Sino-NGAD in the comment section underneath the podcast.

 

[Index]

That is fine, though my previous reply does account for that.



As I wrote in my last post, I certainly won't rule out the idea of J-XD entering initial batch production with WS-15, but I also won't bet on it as a more likely option. This view is assuming J-XD enters initial batch production a similar amount of time after its first flight with a similar time to J-20 did, and assuming J-XD enters first flies within the next year or so.

My estimate of course will change it J-XD's first flight is later down the line and especially if it takes longer to enter initial production than J-20 did.




I'm aware lol.

It would be the J-20 equivalent of Al-31 -> WS-10 -> WS-15, instead of WS-10 -> WS-15.

However we all know what they went with, and it is because of the PLAAF's perception of risk.




I am aware past isn't prologue, and I certainly expect the PRC aero industry to catch up to allow them to "fly a new prototype airframe with a new prototype engine" eventually.




I'm not suggesting choosing a proven engine like WS-10 for initial production is reflective of a poverty mindset rather than a risk reduction mindset. I would even venture it may have its benefits.

Let's put it this way: if J-XD first flies in the next year or so, and if the J-XD first enters initial production after a similar period to which J-20 entered initial production...
... then I think we are obliged to treat the PLA's perceived risk of WS-15 at that time in a similar manner to the way they perceived the risk of WS-10 to J-20 in its equivalent era.

If anything I take the WS10 variant speculation as hugely positive. It means that the arrival of J-XY is imminent. If this is a project for the next 2 years, a WS15 tested would be near guaranteed.

 

[Blitzo]

They surely won't fly it on an airshow, but alone a video clip showing ANYTHING on it would be a huge revelation and indeed Zhuhai would fit perfect!

But again, how likely is this?

I doubt it.

Also, it's not that they are saying J-XD will emerge in the next ten days, but rather in the next "tens of days". That is consistent with everything else we've been hearing in the last couple of months that it might come out by the end of the year.

 

[Blitzo]

Yankee & Co. in their

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on Bilibili have some interesting information regarding the (manned fighter component of) Sino-NGAD.

(My own comments are in italic.)

Yankee & Co. also mentioned that the Sino-NGAD can be described as:
- "If there is a parallel timeline where no 5th-gen fighters of our timeline (F-22, F-35, J-20, J-35 etc) exists, then the J-16 (and J-15B) will be the 5th-gen fighters instead."
- "This will be the first time where the US will be negated the long-held advantage of being constantly one generation ahead of their peers/competitors since the Korean War (i.e. "How nice of you to have Su-27s in production/entered service for several years now. Would be a shame if our (Y)F-22 just had its first flight.)."
- "How the Americans will react to the Sino-NGAD could be similar to how the Soviets reacted to the existence of the USN's F-14 during the mid-Cold War (i.e. the Soviets initially believed that the newly-introduced F-14 is just another F-111B.)."

---

By this point, it is reasonable to believe that the manned fighter component of the Sino-NGAD will become some kind of J-20/J-35 Pro Max Plus Ultra, with the main objective of surpassing every parameter of the current 5th-gen fighters. Namely, China's (manned component of) 6th-gens will be more of evolutionary progress from 5th-gens, rather than how 5th-gens are revolutionary progress from 4th-gens.

Thanks for the translation.

TBH if Yankee is willing to put up his reputation on this in such a blatant way then this is as good as any other signal that we should be expecting J-XD in the near future, perhaps not dissimilar to this same time of year back in 2010 in the lead up to J-20’s reveal.

The part about 6th generation characteristics is not surprising but is probably worth repeating for the people who still hold out hope that “6th” generation fighters will have some revolutionary characteristics like hypersonic or near space performance, and instead accepting that 6th generation fighters will not possess the same degree of jump in capabilities that 5th generation fighters enjoyed relative to 4th generation fighters, and to instead view the difference between 6th and 5th, as something more akin to the difference between 4th and 3rd. In theory, 4th generation fighters didn’t greatly exceed the kinematic performance or even the “on paper” weapons and sensors of 3rd generation fighters but instead it was the qualitative improvement of every subsystem in much more refined and mature airframes that allowed 4th generation fighters to be defined in retrospect as what they were.

And much as how there are some 3rd generation fighters which were able to approach 4th generation fighter capabilities due to receiving substantial modernizations with 4th generatio avionics and weapons, I expect the same will be true to an extent for 5th generation fighters and 6th generation capabilities respectively.


… of course, it is also possible that there may be new technologies that emerge in the immediate future that surprises us and allows 6th generation fighters to become enjoy more of a significant leap than is currently expected (i.e.: it’s not outside the scope of possibility that if the US significantly revises NGAD and introduces certain leap ahead capabilities that it would prove to be more “revolutionary” than J-XD and thus end up setting the actual standard for 6th generation fighters), but that would be very much a surprise considering how existing discouse to emergent 6th generation capabilities are curerntly being framed including in the US, and also based on what technologies we know are being developed in anticipation for it around the world.


(All of this written with a caveat that I’m not a big fan of the generation system myself, but I’m using it for brevity).

In this instance, I'm mainly just a messenger.

But again, caution is advised against posting such information update on the matter on social media for the time being.

I strongly agree with this.

IMO (this is directed to everyone at large), our discussions around J-XD probably should not be greatly propagated outside of SDF and niche spaces -- mostly because they're impossible to properly quantify and having a slapfight with other people around "rumour/projection/PLA watching" methods and credibility will not be useful to anyone.

By the sounds of it the proof will be in the pudding soon enough, and if we want to disclose the timeline of indicators and rumours of J-XD leading up to its reveal, after the reveal occurs, then that could be done.