PLA next/6th generation fighter thread
- Thread starter Blitzo
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he clearly said, next generation. definitely not J-35/J-31 ..
we have seen plenty of research papers and even mock up during Zhuhai air show.. next generation fighter jet will be a tailless design..
Don't assume that the progress of China's 6th-Gen is definitely slower than that of US. Let time tell us the answer.
China's 6th gen will be around the same time or even faster. US is losing a lot of technical knowledge and workforce due too boomer retirement, de-industrialisation, happy education and profit first mentality, as well as incompetent people at high places who get their own cronies in related positions.
While that is indeed a cyclical pattern that is true universally for all people and nations, their 6th gen programs would have been started over well a decade ago and not so much a product of what you are listing. That would perhaps apply to their 7th gen fighter development cycle. Whereas Chinese talent ecosystem is trending upwards if we apply a macro lens to all academia and industry, the US still has an industrial expertise and infrastructure edge for the 6th gen fighter.
Even if we assume software side of things there is already parity, China is at least one generation behind on military turbofans and adaptive cycle engines. This is roughly 10 years gap even with China's faster catch up rate (relative to US wading forward into unknown technical territory at a slower rate than China catching up with known territory). China's advantage in this field would be the ability to produce faster and more at a cheaper rate. At no time in modern history has PLAAF fighter been this close to USAF. The progress itself is fairly remarkable already.
As a side note, China could easily surpass F-35 production rate with its J-20 if efforts were made. After all China's defense spending is a pathetic 2% of GDP or so and that's by western estimations (China claims even less than 2%). PLAAF wants J-20 at an unprecedented rate hence we see multiple production facilities open for J-20 production. It is still a more complex aircraft than the F-35 at least wrt hardware. For 6th gen, planners probably should consider the evolving air combat and attrition war. Maybe even incorporate some asymmetric war doctrines that no doubt would eventuate with any peer to peer conflict. I think 6th gen and peripheral supporting aircraft will be quite revolutionary and while the mainstay fighter program will likely be some stealthier and better performing tailless fighter, it is definitely going to be the electronic war and asymmetric domain that outweigh the platform itself. 6th gen must look to incorporate these emerging (and some well established) theatres. It won't be as easy to judge and compare 6th gen against other 6th gens like we could in the past. Combat has become so digitalised.
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Surely not ... yes, what China archives and archived is simply awe-inspiring and their catch-up is even more impressive, but the US contenders or demonstrators are flying since years, in engine technology the US are still far ahead, while the WS-15 is just entering service.
As such, we shouldn't jump the boat like Indian fan-boys and stay realistic.
Via 伏尔戈星图, SAC seems to be up to something big. EOI biddings (is that what you call it?) for the following this month (May):
- Electromagnetic simulation for a static prototype (static test frame?), aiming for project conclusion within 20 months after the contract is signed.
- Software to provide analysis on the comprehensive design of a new intake and bypass design, aiming for project conclusion within 24 months and the product to be delivered within 20 months after signing.
- Software modules for:
a.) Complex flow field distortion grid intelligent adjustment (to my understanding, something akin to a Adaptive Mesh Refinement grid generator?)
b.) High-precision High Subsonic Shock Boundary Layer Flow State Analysis
c.) Solving buffeting characteristics of time-varying configurations (?)
Product handover within 10 months after signing.
- Microwave anechoic chamber for measuring an aircraft's EM characteristics and electric field screening, completion and handover before 31/12/2025.
- Electromagnetic simulation for a static prototype (static test frame?), aiming for project conclusion within 20 months after the contract is signed.
- Software to provide analysis on the comprehensive design of a new intake and bypass design, aiming for project conclusion within 24 months and the product to be delivered within 20 months after signing.
- Software modules for:
a.) Complex flow field distortion grid intelligent adjustment (to my understanding, something akin to a Adaptive Mesh Refinement grid generator?)
b.) High-precision High Subsonic Shock Boundary Layer Flow State Analysis
c.) Solving buffeting characteristics of time-varying configurations (?)
Product handover within 10 months after signing.
- Microwave anechoic chamber for measuring an aircraft's EM characteristics and electric field screening, completion and handover before 31/12/2025.
Even if China is 10 years behind NGAD, I don't think it matters. 6th gen planes are the least impressive generation in my view. What is stopping J-20 from having most of the capabilities that 6th gen planes are supposed to have?
* Optional unmanned flying? Purely software and sensor capabilities that can be added to even current J-20s
* Directing drones? Already being added to J-20 two seater
* Better radar or avionics? can be added J-20 variant
There are 2 advantages that 6th gen is bringing that J-20 cannot have.
Tailless design which is supposed to be more stealthy. But this could have drawbacks like much less manuverability. Moreover, anti-Stealth tech is also developing fast. Radars that can detect stealth is developing, using AI to direct missiles using general direction of the plane before autonomous targetting might be coming in the future. So, I don't think adding even more stealth is going to be that gamechanger in the future.
Finally variable cycle engines, okay its more efficient and uses less fuel. J-20 already has more than enough range. Is even more range that big of a game changer? No.
Overall, I am not that impressed with 6th gen planes. They r not that of a big deal compared to the gap between 4th gen vs 5th gen. Manned planes lobbing missile at each other is already getting obsolete. The future could be all about unmanned drones fighting more and more sophisticated SAMs. Fighter planes are going to be obsolete in the future in my view.
I'm of the opinion 6th gen will have hypersonic flight capabilities and blurring the boundaries between fighter/bomber and also between airplane/spaceplane. It's likely to finally put the strategic in strategic airforce.