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Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
latenlazy said:
Take this list with a heavy pile of salt. I think only 18 type 055s was a bit of a dead tell, since I seem to recall (someone correct me if I’m wrong) fgzfyz once implying the *initial* order for the 055 was 16 hulls, as well as to expect a 055A afterwards. That said, I don’t think a build pace of four 052s and two 055 every year for 10 years is that implausible. After all, right now it looks like Dalian and Shanghai combined are starting to hit a clip of about 3-4 new 052Ds and 3-4 new 055s a year, if I’ve been following the build schedule right. We’ll see if that pace continues, slacks, or intensifies, but 6-8 new destroyers a year for a decade may not be out of the question, *especially* if the intent is to have a navy that can achieve parity with the USN by 2035 (though I’m not saying that’s necessarily the case).
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I think if the 052 series continues as expected then popular projections for the 055/A's eventual numbers will need to be tempered, since many fans' estimations for the 055 is as a replacement for the 052, which will obviously not be the case if the PLAN continues to build 052s concurrently with the 055.
 
L

latenlazy

Brigadier
Iron Man said:
I think if the 052 series continues as expected then popular projections for the 055/A's eventual numbers will need to be tempered, since many fans' estimations for the 055 is as a replacement for the 052, which will obviously not be the case if the PLAN continues to build 052s concurrently with the 055.
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Maybe. Unless we get a leak or some other news laying the intended force structure out going forth though we won’t really have a clue until this batch of 055s and 052Ds are done and we see what the docks work on in the next batch of orders...
 
T

Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
How is that list even credible? 6 carriers by 2029 alone is very suspicious. 4 *might* be doable, with perhaps another building. I would think having a pair of carriers being built simultaneously for years is not realistic. If that does somehow happen it will start an arms race.
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
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Totoro said:
How is that list even credible? 6 carriers by 2029 alone is very suspicious. 4 *might* be doable, with perhaps another building. I would think having a pair of carriers being built simultaneously for years is not realistic. If that does somehow happen it will start an arms race.
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I don't think it is specified if those ships are all in service or not.

I can see 6 carriers in the water in total of which 1-2 of them are in fitting out/sea trial and the rest being in service.


But as others have said, I see no reason why this particular projection should be seen as particularly credible.
 
asif iqbal

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
Figaro said:
Huahua's prediction of PLAN major combat ships in 2029.

6 aircraft carriers (current 1 in service, i fitting and 1 started building)
8 amphibious assault ships (075???) ( current four type 071 in service, 2 fitting and rumoured one type 075 started building)
18 type 055 destoyers (current one fitting, 3 or 4 building)
60 plus other types of destroyers (current in service 30, 3 sea trial, 4 fitting, 3 or more started building)
60 plus various type of frigates (current 50 plus in service, more to be built)
10 plus SSBN nuclear missile submarines
20 plus SSN nuclear powered attack submarines
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Oh dear looks like some one had a wet dream
 
I

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
latenlazy said:
Maybe. Unless we get a leak or some other news laying the intended force structure out going forth though we won’t really have a clue until this batch of 055s and 052Ds are done and we see what the docks work on in the next batch of orders...
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There are leaks already, with big shrimps talking about the 052E follow-on to the 052D. If there is a 052E, then there is unequivocally no two-class PLAN.
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
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Iron Man said:
There are leaks already, with big shrimps talking about the 052E follow-on to the 052D. If there is a 052E, then there is unequivocally no two-class PLAN.
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I'm not sure what you mean by two-class PLAN, but if/when an 052E class does emerge, that does not necessarily mean 055/A/etc numbers cannot eventually reach levels that had been speculated by a few of us here. Knowing a class is planned is one thing, but the long term number produced is another.

But it also depends on what numbers you considered to be "fan estimations".
 
I

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
latenlazy said:
Yeah, but I meant leaks of order counts when I wrote that.
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I see. I thought I had recalled that you were one of the enthusiastic "two-classers" on SDF.

Bltizo said:
I'm not sure what you mean by two-class PLAN, but if/when an 052E class does emerge, that does not necessarily mean 055/A/etc numbers cannot eventually reach levels that had been speculated by a few of us here. Knowing a class is planned is one thing, but the long term number produced is another.

But it also depends on what numbers you considered to be "fan estimations".
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You know what I mean. We've debated over this several times already. Two-class refers to 055+054X instead of 055+052X+054X. And I don't recall what "a few" of you have speculated specifically, but a certainly a two-class navy would only manifest itself when the last of the 052Ds retire in the 2050s, at which time a PLAN would probably have to be in the range of 50-70 055s and a similar number of frigates, assuming China doesn't succumb to imperial overreach like the US has. My own guesstimate is 20-25 055s, 50-60 052Xs, and 60-70 054Xs.
 
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